Tennis Betting Advice - May 2020
Hunter for the upset at 8/1…
Sunday 24th May 2020
In your Ones to Watch email today:
What were we saying yesterday about small margins? We had three picks in the States on Saturday, and all of them went down in a third & final set. Including underdog Garrett Johns who was pipped by Ruan Roelofse in a deciding Champions Tiebreak, 10-4.
Tennis was declared ‘back to normal’ in Florida – meaning there was a rain delay…
With the match between Danielle Collins and Ajla Tomljanovic tied at one set all before the weather took over, that one needs to be concluded in order to determine what the final line-up will be for Sunday’s playoff matches at the UTR Pro Match Series. Therefore, there are no markets for us to look at in Florida as I write.
Over in Atlanta, the men’s Exo-Tennis event continues today…
Ruan Roelofse v Hunter Reese…
I’m still keen to oppose Ruan Roelofse this weekend. There’s nothing particularly convincing in his form, and even though he eventually justified his favouritism in the match odds v Garrett Johns yesterday, that victory was only scraped in in that deciding tiebreak mentioned above. The match score was 6-3, 4-6, 10-4.
Overall, Roelofse has lost nine of his 12 matches across the two instalments of the Atlanta event this month.
Hunter Reese was a newcomer here this week and the 27-year-old American got a ‘W’ on his sheet on Saturday with a 2-1 victory over Nathan Pasha, when priced at around 7/2 (4.50). The match score was 4-6, 6-3, 10-8.
Pasha has recorded two out of two wins over Roelofse at the Exo-Tennis. It’s not as simple as A + B = Winner, of course. But the point is, if Pasha can beat Roelofse… and Reese can beat Pasha… then there’s plenty of scope to think Reese can give the South African a test here…
Take the 2-1 route…
In the Match Winner market, Hunter Reese is around 7/2 to pull of another upset win today. Oddschecker aren’t playing ball again, so I thought I’d list the pick of the prices for you: Reese is 15/4 (4.75) with BetVictor, and 7/2 (4.50) with William Hill, Betway, Betfred, Skybet, Ladbrokes, Coral.
However, my long-shot antenna is up here and I’m drawn to the more speculative 2-1 Set Betting score at a big price…
These matches can only be decided 2-0 or 2-1. And with Roelofse far from a convincing favourite when you look at his Atlanta formbook, backing the outsider to make a close match of this and take it to a deciding set looks the most appealing price-based option to me.
In terms of going after the biggest odds we can get for the underdog to prevail, Reese to win 2-1 is available at 8/1.
And to add a sort of ‘saver’ into our tactics, also backing the 2-1 score for Roelofse makes plenty of sense at 3/1+, too. That price certainly appeals more than just 1/5 (1.20) for the South African in the standard Match Winner market.
And in the absence of a Total Sets market here, backing both men to win 2-1 at nice prices would ensure a profit on the day if the match does indeed end up being a close one that goes the distance.
Exo-Tennis Series, USA – Men:
Ruan Roelofse v Hunter Reese
Match scheduled 5.40pm UK time
Play continues on Monday, and we also have a new event kicking off in Austria. I’ll be back again in the morning with a look at that one for you.
Enjoy the tennis…