Tennis Betting Advice - May 2021
A big day for Paula...
Thursday 6th May 2021
In Ones to Watch today:
200/1 shot in the semi final…
Today is a big day for Paula Badosa. And it could be a massive one for us, too…
The 23-year-old Spanish wildcard plays in the WTA Madrid semi finals this afternoon. A 200/1 Ones to Watch pick at the start of the tournament, Paula has played some superb tennis, and fought brilliantly throughout. Winning four matches to get to this stage, Badosa is now 12/1 in the Outright Winner market.
Clearly, then, we have a huge price on our side…
Badosa has already long out-stripped odds of 200/1. We can rightly be happy with that. But the bookies don’t pay out on near misses or close calls…
100/1 to beat the World No.1…
The woman standing on the other side of the net is none other than the World No.1, Ashleigh Barty. Going back to her French Open triumph in 2019, the Australian has won 15 consecutive matches on clay in Europe.
On the most recent form, Barty has won 16 out of 17 matches on all surfaces since the start of March. The one player to beat her in that mightily impressive run? Paula Badosa.
The World No.62 beat Barty last month, on the green clay at Charleston, USA. Ash was a little weary that day, having arrived at that event on the back of winning a big title in Miami, and then playing a tough three-setter v Shelby Rogers the day before facing Badosa. The Spaniard took advantage, played aggressive, held her nerve, and won 6-4, 6-3.
That was the biggest victory of Paula’s young career. Today, she plays in her first WTA 1000-level semi final.
One win away from a big payout…
After beating Belinda Bencic in the quarter finals yesterday, Paula spoke about how nervous she’d been. The home Spanish crowd can go two ways I guess; cheering her on and raising her up, or creating a feeling of added pressure. To me, Badosa looks like she has the fight in her to mount a real challenge today.
If you’re on at 200/1 Each Way, with place terms of 1/2 odds for reaching the final, then you effectively have 100/1 on Paula to beat the World No.1 today. That’s a fantastic position to be in.
If you want to guarantee a profit or recoup your original stake on Badosa, then the simplest move this morning would be to have a bet on Barty to win the match.
The problem for me though is the price. With Barty a short 2/7 (1.28) favourite, it’s going to require a substantial bet to generate a decent return.
Ones to Watch is all about days like today. They don’t come along very often. But we do well to get in these positions – and it sure is exciting…
So far this season, we’ve come close, with 100/1 and 250/1 picks reaching quarter finals, and one 100/1 shot in a semi final. Just like the Spanish crowd, I’ll be singing and roaring if Paula wins today…
The match is scheduled second on court, 12 noon or later. You can watch live on Amazon Prime Video, or bookie websites such as Bet365.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson