Tennis Betting Advice - May 2021

The difference between players and prices...

Monday 24th May 2021

In Ones to Watch today:

  • Knocking on the door…
  • From 100/1 to 3/1…
  • French Open starts Sunday…

Our 20/1 pick Maria Camila Osorio Serrano got to the WTA Belgrade semi finals last week. The teenager was edged out in a very tight match in two tiebreak sets, 7-6, 7-6. Her victor, Ana Konjuh, then retired injured in the final, after a tough week that was defined by rain delays. On more than one occasion, the women had to play twice in one day.

We should certainly look out for more opportunities to follow Osorio Serrano at appealing prices. After last week’s semi-final streak in Serbia, the 19-year-old Colombian’s recent clay-court run reads: semi final, semi final, final (won).

Knocking on the door…

That was the fourth time this season that we’ve seen one of our Outright Winner picks fall in the semis – just one win away from an Each Way payout. Long-time Ones to Watch followers know that I’m not one to talk about ‘bad luck,’ or to dwell too much on ‘near misses.’ That’s not to say I don’t remember them, though…

Along with 20/1, 66/1, 100/1, and 200/1 semi-finalists. So far in 2021, we’ve also got five players into finals at very nice prices. But had to settle for the runner-up prize four times out of five – with those runners-up at tournament odds of 20/1, 25/1, 33/1, and 33/1 again.

With that many players getting into the final four of events at attractive prices, all is okay in the world of Ones to Watch. And when the next Big One fully clicks into place – we’ll really remember it…

The difference between players and prices…

One of our best ever results came at last year’s French Open, with teenager Iga Swiatek’s maiden Grand Slam triumph delivering in spectacular style, at rank outsider odds of 100/1.

That’s the perfect example of Ones to Watch business. Going into next week’s French Open 2021, this time, Swiatek is the favourite – at just 11/4 (3.75). She was 5/1 (6.0) a couple of weeks back, but that already-prohibitive Outright price has been trimmed to even shorter, since former Roland Garros champion Simona Halep announced that she won’t be back from injury in time for Paris.

Swiatek is just one example. Two of our big semi-finalists from the current campaign, Casper Ruud (100/1 at ATP 1000 Monte Carlo, 66/1 at ATP 1000 Madrid), and Paula Badosa (200/1 at WTA 1000 Madrid), both lifted trophies last week – paying out at just 3/1 each…

Here’s the full price breakdown from last week on tour:

ATP 250 – Lyon
Winner: S.Tsitsipas (9/4)
Runner-up: C.Norrie (50/1)

WTA 250 – Belgrade
Winner: P.Badosa (3/1)
Runner-up: A.Konjuh (16/1)

WTA 250 – Parma
Winner: C.Gauff (6/1)
Runner-up: Qiang Wang (25/1)

ATP 250 – Geneva
Winner: C.Ruud (3/1)
Runner-up: D.Shapovalov (11/2)

The figures are encouraging – and true to form…

I keep a record of the kinds of prices that pay out in the Outright markets, throughout the season. Here’s an overall summary for 2021 to date, with plenty of encouragement for big-odds backers like us:

Tournaments completed: 49

Winners at 10/1+: 21 (43%)
Runners-up at 10/1+: 36 (73%)

50/1+ finalists: 16 (33% of tournaments)
100/1+ finalists: 8 (16% of tournaments)

Those numbers are nicely in line with the five-year averages that I rounded up at the end of 2020. With those long-term figures showing 50% of trophy winners at pre-tournament odds of 10/1+, and 70% for runners-up.

And in the realm of the giant odds, the last-five-seasons data tells us that 30% of tournaments feature a 50/1+ finalist, with 12% producing a 100/1+ player in the final. Again, those percentages tally well with what we’re seeing so far this year.

All is well in the 2021 numbers, then. And starting this coming Sunday, we have the second Grand Slam of the season. I’ll be back throughout the week with more as we build up to the French Open. And once play begins, I’ll be going DAILY with my Roland Garros picks, analysis & advice. Stay tuned…

There are also ATP & WTA events taking place in Belgrade, Parma & Strasbourg this week. I’ll keep you posted if and when any players and prices catch the eye.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch