Tennis Betting Advice - May 2022
French Open Day 3: Classic Kerber – and a 5/1 pick for this morning…
Tuesday 24th May 2022
Welcome to Day 3 of your French Open 2022 daily service. Play starts at 10am…
The gloom and the glory…
It was a brutal day in Paris yesterday. A gloomy, rainy, heavy day. The conditions, with the dampness getting into the balls, produced some absolute slugfests on the outer courts. Some of the matches didn’t get completed, and will resume today. While under the new roof and lights on Court Philippe-Chatrier, play was able to continue into the Night Session despite the rain, with Novak Djokovic belatedly celebrating his 35th birthday.
After a quiet day in the stands on Monday, the Paris patrons started to make their presence felt yesterday. Cheering – and jeering – could be heard throughout. Beyond the walled-in stadium courts, the sounds from other matches carried on the wind, from court to court. After the coronavirus lockdown times, atmosphere at a Grand Slam tennis event is what we want…
Classic Kerber…
The supporters on Court 6 had a treat. The day kicking off with Indian Wells winner Taylor Fritz coming through a five-set battle. And ending in the early evening, the air heavy with moisture, the players dowsed in sweat, with another epic final-set clash…
Angelique Kerber and Magdalena Frech played out a genuine 1st-round classic. And I’m not just saying that because our player won. The German had to come from behind on more than one occasion, losing the first set, and also a break down in the third set. Both women were giving it absolutely everything. The rallies were long, bruising, heart-in-mouth affairs. There were several moments at the end of points where both players were bent double, getting their breath back before the next marathon rally. Steely looks in their eyes, fists clenched, and at times, an almost sense of disbelief at how many balls were coming back at them from the other side of the net. It was high quality, and high drama.
Frech played well above her level; she barely put a foot wrong. Kerber continued right on from last week’s thrilling Strasbourg final (which went the distance to a deciding tiebreak), once again drawing on all her experience and match-play toughness. Angie saved two match points, had the crowd in raptures with some relentless and inspired shot-making – and left the arena the victor, with fans singing her name. As the 34-year-old German said afterwards, “I left my heart on court.” The former world no.1 triumphed 2-6, 6-3, 7-5.
With Djokovic and Rafael Nadal now age 35 and among the favourites to dominate again at Roland Garros this fortnight, then why not a late-career resurrection for 34-year-old Kerber? After taking the WTA Strasbourg title last week, three-time Grand Slam champion Angie is now on a six-match winning streak on clay. And when you’re coming through long matches, and saving match points on the way – you can start to build up a head of steam.
Now, nobody should get carried away after a narrow 1st-round win that could quite easily have gone the other way. But as I stated yesterday, this bottom half of the women’s draw really is anyone’s for the taking. We’ve already seen a handful of seeds crash out (including a couple of my own picks, Ons Jabeur and Anett Kontaveit). The reigning champion is out, with no.2 seed Barbora Krejcikova scythed down in the first match of her title defence by French teenager Diane Parry.
This side of the drawsheet has a real chance of producing an underdog, outsider, big-odds finalist…
Our book of outsiders…
As was the plan on day one, we’re backing several women at attractive Each Way prices here. After Bianca Andreescu also came through a close one yesterday – at one stage serving to stay in the match, but eventually winning the final set 6-0, after a rain delay. Our ‘live’ women’s Outright Winner book looks like this:
And in the top half of the draw, where we are taking a more measured approach to our selections – such is the menace of world no.1 Iga Swiatek – yesterday’s 66/1 and 50/1 pick Jessica Pegula plays in the 1st round today. That 66/1 price can still be grabbed at Bet365, Betfred, Boylesports, and Sporting Index Fixed Odds – with Each Way terms of 1/2 odds 1-2 places.
Bagel-time…
Talking of Swiatek… I basically predicted the score in the Pole’s match yesterday, albeit not precisely (!). Hopefully Monday's ‘bagel’ analysis pointed you in a profitable direction. The 6-0 score came in the 2nd Set, which there wasn't much of a pre-match market for, although plenty of in-play opportunities would've been available (although of course I appreciate not everyone is going to be able to bet on the match that way while going about their day). Under 16.5 Total Games proved the right move though, with Iga cruising to an almost too comfortable 6-2, 6-0 win (Total Games = 14).
There were also bagels on Monday for Andreescu and Martina Trevisan. And in the men’s, players with 6-0 set scores to their name so far include Carlos Alcaraz, Djokovic, Cameron Norrie, and Marin Cilic.
Farewell, Jo…
A 6-0 or similar contender today could be Casper Ruud against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. The former is one of the rising stars of the men’s game. The latter is about to retire…
Tsonga has been given centre-court billing here, for what will likely be an emotional farewell to the home fans. The Frenchman was twice a semi-finalist here at Roland Garros (2013, 2015), as well as runner-up at the Australian Open the year that Djokovic won his first Grand Slam (2008). He also made the semis twice at Wimbledon, and got to three US Open quarter finals.
The glory days are behind Jo now though – on the tennis court that is. After stacks of injury setbacks, the 37-year-old is looking forward to many happy years of pain-free retirement. One of the most-loved entertainers on the tour, there’s sure to be a lot of love on show in this afternoon’s match.
Ruud is a great young professional, and will show full respect both to the task in hand, and to his opponent. In the Set Betting market, Casper is odds-on at just 1/3 (1.33) at best to win in straight sets, 3-0.
Tsonga is as big as 20/1 to win the match – the biggest Match Winner price of the day across the men’s & women’s events combined. The outgoing Frenchman is 9/4 (3.25) to win a set (Bet365). To put that 20/1 Tsonga match price in context, Ruud is around that same price to win the whole tournament.
I won’t reach for a bet in that one, but I felt the match was worth a mention. It’ll be nice to see some smiles on the court – and there might be a few tears, too.
Day 3 picks…
In terms of who I like for a bet today. The 10am women’s match out on Court 13 gets my attention…
Alexandra Krunic v Kamilla Rakhimova
This is the world no.114 against the world no.109. The 29-year-old Krunic has come through qualifying, so already has three match wins under her belt here in Paris over the past week. Two of those matches went to a deciding set. And I think we could be in for a long and nervy one this morning, too…
While the Serbian brings the more encouraging immediate form, there’s little doubt in my mind that 20-year-old Rakhimova is the better tennis player. Kamilla has beaten Krunic three times in a row since the start of last season, including a 6-2, 3-6, 7-5 win on clay in the 1st round at WTA Bogota last month. The overall head-to-head is 3-1 to the youngster, and two of their three encounters have seen Rakhimova get through in three sets.
The Russian is the match underdog, priced at 13/8 (2.63) with Bet365, and 6/4 (2.5) in general. Given the formbook and recent head-to-head history, my outsider mindset leads me to the bigger odds of 5/1 (6.0) and 9/2 (5.5) for the Rakhimova 2-1 Set Betting score.
You won’t hear much about this match in the media today. But it’s the one I’ll be watching, with Eurosport Player (or Discovery+ as it’s soon to be known) showing all the French Open matches. I’ll wager that they won’t have assigned a commentary team to this off-the-radar 1st round tie. So, I shall be providing that myself, in front of my screen. They say talking to yourself is the first sign of madness. We’ll see about that.
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Ones to Watch picks:
French Open 2022 – Women’s 1st Round
Alexandra Krunic v Kamilla Rakhimova
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Play starts from 10am.
I’ll be back at 8am tomorrow with your Day 4 email.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson