Tennis Betting Advice - May 2022
French Open Day 9: Get out the calculator…
Monday 30th May 2022
Welcome to Day 9 of your French Open 2022 daily service…
Mental toughness is the edge…
You can look at the formbook and stats all you want, but one thing it’s hard to measure in sport is mental toughness. That quality is one of the reasons we’ve done well by backing the likes of Sofia Kenin and Iga Swiatek in recent years. Some players are simply more tenacious than others; more able to raise their game in high-pressure moments – and play their best tennis when it really matters.
We saw more evidence of that mental edge from 19-year-old Leylah Fernandez yesterday. At 0-40 down on her serve in the final set, the young Canadian did what great players do – and saved all three break points. She won that game… and then went on to win the match. Leylah beat the pre-match favourite Amanda Anisimova, 6-3, 4-6, 6-3.
We’re guaranteed a semi…
In the Outright Winner market, we got on Fernandez at 28/1 and 25/1 before yesterday’s match. The teenager is now 10/1 across the board. And that quarter of the women’s draw gives us a situation to look forward to over the next couple of days, as we’re also on Leylah’s quarter final opponent, Martina Trevisan…
The Italian had to save a set point in the first set, and come from 3-5 behind in the second. But the fighting spirit was on show there, too, with the 28-year-old Trevisan beating Aliaksandra Sasnovich 7-6, 7-5, to maintain her straight-sets form here at the French Open 2022. In comparison, Sasnovich wilted away at the exact moment when she needed to put her foot down and press on. Including a couple of nervy double faults. The small margins are where big things can happen.
Talking of big things, we’re on Martina as a 100/1+ rank outsider. Trevisan is on a nine-match winning streak on clay, and is now 33/1 at best to go all the way here in Paris.
Sloane strikes again…
While we’re talking of mental toughness v the formbook, then there are few better cases in women’s tennis than the enigma that is Sloane Stephens.
On day one of the tournament, Sloane was a 500/1 rank outsider with Bet365, and just 50/1 with William Hill. Which shows that when it comes to working out when Stephens is going to have a good day/ week/ tournament, the bookies are just as much in the dark as everyone else…
The 29-year-old American comfortably dismissed our 50/1+ pick Jil Belen Teichmann yesterday, 6-2, 6-0. Some of that score-line can be put down to our player not being at full steam. Teichmann played out the longest match of the women’s draw when beating Victoria Azarenka in over three hours in the last round. But Sloane weaved a real web on Sunday evening, and looked as good as… well, as good as when we’ve backed her at big odds at the US Open and French Open in the past.
I have no problem admitting that I didn’t see that Stephens run coming this time. She’s now 20/1 at best (Bet365), and 16/1 in general. All the mainstream bookies are now 1/3 odds 1-2 places, Each Way.
Apart from Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook, who have shut the door on anyone looking to do a bit of Each Way thieving. Reacting to Iga Swiatek’s dominance as the tournament favourite by now making their Roland Garros women’s Outright Winner book Win Only. They go just 11/1 (12.0) for Stephens. If you’re going to bet Win Only, the Betfair Exchange is the place to go. As I write this morning, you can get up to 23/1 (24.0).
In the wide-open bottom half of the women’s draw, the quarter final line-up is now set:
Martina Trevisan v Leylah Fernandez
Coco Gauff v Sloane Stephens
The quarter finals start tomorrow. That all-American encounter looks intriguing, with 18-year-old Gauff against 29-year-old Stephens…
Get out the calculator…
On most occasions I would argue that the Outright Winner value has already gone on Sloane Stephens. After all, we’re certainly not going to get 500/1 or even 50/1 now. However, I checked myself when making that statement this morning, put down my coffee, and got out the calculator…
With the quarter finals up next, where Sloane has a fascinating match-up with teenager Coco Gauff. That means Stephens needs to win two matches to get the final, and three to win the title…
The head-to-head v Gauff is 1-0 to the 29-year-old, with Stephens beating the teenager in straight sets at the US Open last year. The early match prices for the quarter final have Sloane as the underdog at around 13/8 (2.63) – the same as she was for that New York meeting. Coco is playing great right now in Paris, but she’s still vulnerable on her second serve, and few players attack a soft second serve better than an on-song Sloane Stephens.
If she were to win that match, then I’d argue that the former French Open runner-up wouldn’t be far off 10/11 (1.91) to win a potential semi final against Leylah Fernandez. The head-to-head there is 3-0 to Fernandez, but they’re yet to meet on clay, or at a Grand Slam. (If Stephens gets to the semis and plays Trevisan, the American will definitely start that match as the favourite.)
Looking ahead to a potential final, and you have to work to the assumption that the task would be the biggest one in women’s tennis right now, with world no.1 Iga Swiatek the odds-on tournament favourite. Stephens and Swiatek have never played each other. If she gets all the way to the final, then such will be the form of the American, I can’t see her being much bigger than 3/1 (4.0) to beat Iga on the day.
Now, let’s take those projected odds. And roll them up, to create a price estimate for Sloane Stephens to win the tournament from here…
For example:
2.63 to beat Gauff x 1.91 to beat Fernandez = 5.02 to reach the final (eg. 4/1).
That’s the ‘place’ odds I’m forecasting. An Each Way bet at today’s best Outright prices of 20/1 and 16/1 with 1/3 odds for reaching the final would come out at 7.66 and 6.33, respectively. In comparison, in Bet365’s To Reach the Final market, Stephens is priced at 9/2 (5.5).
Working to those numbers, there’s a case that Stephens is still value at today’s Each Way prices.
If we look at the Outright (Win) odds, then my prediction of a 3/1 Match Winner price for Stephens to beat Swiatek if they were to meet in a final makes my estimate for Sloane’s potential run from here on in look like this:
2.63 to beat Gauff x 1.91 to beat Fernandez x 4.0 to beat Swiatek = 20.09.
That makes the 20/1 with Bet365 (and a bit bigger on the Betfair Exchange) look fair enough. And it should also be said that Sloane wouldn’t be as big as 3/1 in the final against anyone else left in the draw bar Swiatek. And in the semis, the American would be shorter than 10/11 to beat Trevisan. Facts which bolster the argument that Stephens at 20/1 and 16/1 is still value right now, with the getting-to-the-final Each Way part the key. If a Stephens v Swiatek final does happen, then I’d be happy with 16/1 or better for that one-off match.
That’s how I see it this morning. Gauff v Stephens isn’t until tomorrow, but Sloane is my standout bet for today. Let’s take the prices while they’re there – 13/8 to win the quarter final, and 20/1 or 16/1 Each Way for the title.
Pegula and Medvedev in action on Day 9…
The round of Last 16 gets completed today, with the remaining quarter final places to be decided by the end of play this evening…
In the women’s, we have Jessica Pegula running for us (66/1, 50/1 – now 25/1 and 22s). The bookies make our American pick the 4/9 (1.44) favourite to beat Irina-Camelia Begu. The Romanian has won both previous meetings v Pegula, but the 31-year-old has never been past this stage of a Grand Slam before.
And Begu will likely have to take some flack from the French crowd today, getting in a bit of trouble and picking up a fine for angrily (and inadvertently) bouncing her racket into the crowd earlier in the tournament. The racket hit a child in the stands. Begu has since apologised. Read more here.
And in the men’s, our against-the-grain pick Daniil Medvedev takes on Marin Cilic. This is another bet selection largely based on the mental ability of the player, rather than any specific or recent clay-court form. From 40/1, 33/1 & 28/1 when we decided to follow him after the 1st round, Medvedev is today trading at 18/1 at best and 16/1 in general.
Our man looked good in week one, and is yet to drop a set. The head-to-head v Cilic is 3-0 to Medvedev. The bookies make the world no.2 a 1/3 (1.33) favourite to progress. This one is the Night Session match, so if you’ve got the Eurosport or Discovery+ channels, tune in from 7.45pm for what should be a good watch this evening.
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Ones to Watch picks:
French Open 2022
Women’s:
Match Winner
Outright Winner – Each Way (1/3 odds 1-2 places)
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I’ll be back tomorrow morning with your Day 10 email.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson