Tennis Betting Advice - November 2018
Off to France at 20/1…
Sunday 4th November 2018
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Two picks for Limoges…
Last week was the story of our 2018 season in many ways – so near but yet so far…
In the ATP Paris Masters, 33/1 pick John Isner had two Match Points against Karen Khachanov. Isner was to be the only man to take a set off the Russian all week. The 22-year-old Khachanov went on to win the trophy (at 40/1). I’d plumped for the other young Russian at double the price; 80/1 Daniil Medvedev missed out in the 2nd Round to an immaculate performance from Borna Coric.
We were right to target the top half of the draw in Paris: star name Rafael Nadal pulled out injured without playing a single match, paving the way for a big-price outsider to come through.
In Zhuhai, 10/1 pick Anastasija Sevastova had three Match Points to make the WTA Elite Trophy semi finals, but couldn’t serve it out against Garbine Muguruza. Our 8/1 shot Qiang Wang then thrashed Muguruza in the semi finals (Wang missed out in the Group stage, but was first Alternate in the draw after original semi-finalist Madison Keys pulled out). Wang lost in the final to Ashleigh Barty.
This week I’m eschewing the short prices in the ATP ‘Next Gen’ Finals in Milan, and instead looking to an off-the-beaten-track women’s event in France, where two players catch the eye…
WTA Limoges is billed as a $125k WTA tournament, which pits it just below main tour level. It’s not our normal hunting ground, but there are some established players on show in this indoors hard court event this week, looking to cap their season with a trophy win…
I’m going for one from the top half of the draw, and one from the bottom…
Ones to Watch this week…
In the top section, 2017 Limoges champion Monica Niculescu catches the eye at 16/1. I was expecting to see her shorter. The tricky Romanian is in the tougher side of the draw, but is a bigger price than the returning-from-injury Mihaela Buzarnescu (10/1) and our recent WTA Tashkent winner Margarita Gasparyan (12/1).
Last week, Niculescu made the semi finals at a similar indoors tournament, in Poitiers. I refer to her as tricky, as Niculescu has a rare sliced forehand, and a generally unconventional game style. A few names in the draw have never come up against Monica before, and that’s likely to work to her advantage.
In the bottom half, Pauline Parmentier ticks a few boxes with odds of 18/1+ available, and a standout 20/1. In the last 11 years this tournament has seen a total of eight French finalists. Parmentier, aged 32, is ranked #54 in the world – on course for her highest year-end ranking for 10 years. She has a 3-0 career head-to-head record over 1st Round opponent & fellow Frenchwoman, Fiona Ferro.
Parmentier made the semi finals here in Limoges last year. Last week she reached the quarter finals in Poitiers. Just a few weeks back, in September, Parmentier was a 25/1 winner indoors in Quebec. She’s got a Wild Card into the draw this week, and can make the most of it.
Elsewhere in the bottom section, two of the biggest names, the out-of-form Alize Cornet (12/1) and 9/1 tournament favourite Timea Bacsinszky, have to face each other – so one of them will be coming a cropper early on.
WTA Limoges – ENGIE Open de Limoges
Outright Winner:
BET: Monica Niculescu @ 16/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 16/1 (17.00) Bet365, Ladbrokes, Coral, NetBet, 10Bet
BET: Pauline Parmentier @ 20/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 20/1 (21.00) Bet365, 19/1 (20.00) NetBet, 10Bet, 18/1 (19.00) Ladbrokes, Coral
Play starts on Monday from 9am. Bookies will temporarily suspend the Outright/ Tournament Winner market during the day’s play. Niculescu and Parmentier don’t play until Tuesday or Wednesday.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson