Tennis Betting Advice - November 2019

One to Watch in Milan – and 80/1 for Melbourne…

Monday 4th November 2019

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Ones to Watch in Milan and Melbourne…
  • ATP Next Gen Finals this week…
  • Early 80/1 shot for the Australian Open…

Not done yet…

The WTA Tour calendar has come to an end for the year, but the 2019 tennis season is far from done yet…

We still have three significant men’s events to come, played at indoor hard-court venues in the UK, Spain and Italy.

Next week we have the big one at London’s O2 Arena, with the annual ATP Finals. This is a showpiece event with a huge prize-money pot, and the season’s top eight men in action (fitness permitting of course).

After the ATP Finals we have the inaugural Davis Cup Finals in Madrid – the new International team tournament format featuring 18 nations and some of the tour’s top players.

Before all that, we have this week’s third-ever instalment of the ATP Next Gen Finals in Milan – see below.

  • Last week’s One to Watch pick Matteo Berrettini (40/1) crashed out in the 1st round of the Paris Masters. But he got the result he wanted in a roundabout way, with the other men in contention for the final ATP Finals spot in London failing to progress far enough in the French capital to overtake him on the points board. Berrettini will make his debut in London next week
  • We were right to go after an outsider. For the fourth year running the Paris Masters saw a big-price finalist. Denis Shapovalov was this year’s breakthrough player, finishing runner-up at 80/1. The 20-year-old Canadian follows on from 40/1 (twice), 300/1 and 80/1 finalists since 2016
  • The 7/4 (2.75) favourite Novak Djokovic lifted the Paris trophy on Sunday – but it wasn’t enough to stop Rafael Nadal overtaking him as World No.1

Off to Milan…

The ATP Next Gen Finals event features eight of the top men aged 21 and under. Competing in two groups, with the top two from each group going through to the semi finals.

They play a different game of tennis here in Milan…

‘Sets’ are played as first to four games, with a tiebreak at 3-3. Matches are best of five sets.

They don’t play the usual ‘deuce’, either – the game goes to whoever wins the point at 40-40.

The Milan venue also has ‘bare’ courts with no tramlines for doubles. Other innovations/ experiments include on-court coaching and the use of wearable technologies.

In the previous two incarnations of this quirky tournament, the favourites have delivered the silverware. In 2017, Hyeon Chung was the first champion, at 7/2 (4.50). And last year, Stefanos Tsitsipas took the crown at 2/1 (3.00).

  • The ATP have put a big marketing push behind the ‘Next Generation’ tag in recent years. It seems to be paying off for the sport. In the January directly after winning the Next Gen title, both Chung and Tsitsipas went on to reach the Australian Open semi finals…

Here are this week’s groups, along with the tournament Outright Winner odds:

Group A
Alex De Minaur 7/4 (2.75)
Miomir Kecmanovic 9/1 (10.00)
Casper Ruud 10/1 (11.00)
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 16/1 (17.00)

Group B
Frances Tiafoe 5/1 (6.00)
Ugo Humbert 13/2 (7.50)
Jannik Sinner 6/1 (7.00)
Mikael Ymer 10/1 (11.00)

  • Each Way terms: 1/3 odds 1-2 places

80/1 for Melbourne…

The favourite is one of our Ones to Watch in 2019 players, Alex De Minaur. The young Australian has had a great year, winning no fewer than three ATP titles. That comes after Alex finished runner-up in his first two final appearances, in 2018. He also got to the Next Gen final 12 months ago.

De Minaur’s line of progress has gone up in recent weeks, with a strong end to the season seeing him reach the final in three of his last five tournaments – all on hard courts or indoor hard courts.

That all adds up to Alex reaching a new career high ranking of No.18 in the world. And seeing as he doesn’t turn 21 until February, this hard-working Aussie could be even higher by then…

With the potential for that ‘Milan winner/ Melbourne semi final’ trend noted above continuing – as well as this player’s overall progress over the last two seasons – odds of 80/1 and 66/1 mark De Minaur out as an early One to Watch for the Australian Open in January.

In the last two years Alex has started the season by reaching the final at ATP Sydney. Those Australian Open prices could drop if he wins a title or two between now and the first Grand Slam of 2020.

Follow the Frenchman this week…

Going back to matters at hand at the ATP Next Gen Finals this week, the player I like beyond the favourite is Ugo Humbert

The 21-year-old Frenchman is a decent prospect on an indoor hard court, standing 6’2” with a strong lefty serve. Humbert’s career match record indoors is a respectable won 72 lost 42 (63%).

Ugo arrives here on the back of a nice run of form, reaching the semi final or final in four of his last 10 tournaments at all levels outside of Grand Slams. That includes a semi final indoors at ATP Antwerp last month (lost 2-1 to Andy Murray), followed by winning the title indoors at Brest on the lower-tier ATP Challenger Tour.

If this week pans out as I see it, then Humbert can win Group B and in doing so most likely avoid the favourite De Minaur until the final…

With bookies offering just 1/3 the odds Each Way here instead of the usual 1/2 odds, the more fruitful plan of attack is to back Humbert at around 6/1 Outright (Win Only) for the trophy – and also at around 3/1 to win Group B (eg. to reach the semi finals).

Ones to Watch:

ATP Next Gen Finals – Outright Winner:

  • Ugo Humbert is 13/2 (7.50) with Skybet, 6/1 (7.00) Boylesports, 11/2 (6.50) Bet365, Ladbrokes, Coral, William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook

ATP Next Gen Finals – Group B Winner:

  • Ugo Humbert is 10/3 (4.33) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 3/1 (4.00) with Skybet, 11/4 (3.75) Bet365, William Hill

Australian Open 2020 – Men’s Outright Winner:

  • Alex De Minaur is 80/1 (81.00) Each Way with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, NetBet, 10Bet, 66/1 (67.00) Bet365, Skybet, Boylesports, William Hill

Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2.

The ATP Next Gen Finals start from 1pm on Tuesday.

I’ll be back later in the week with more. I’ve started my research on the Davis Cup Finals, too.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch