Tennis Betting Advice - November 2019

ATP Finals – go with youth at 18/1…

Friday 8th November 2019 

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • ATP Finals, London…
  • Go to Group Andre Agassi…
  • 18/1 for the defending champ…

Ones to Watch in London…

Ugo Humbert didn’t get himself going at this week’s ATP Next Gen Finals in Milan. The young Frenchman will remain on our radar going into next season, though.

On Sunday we have the grand showpiece at the end of the men’s tour season, the ATP Finals at London’s O2 Arena.

The Top 8 players in the 2019 ranking points table are competing in two groups, with the top two from each group progressing to the semi finals.

Here are the groups, along with the tournament Outright Winner odds:

Group Andre Agassi
Daniil Medvedev 5/1 (6.00)
Rafael Nadal 6/1 (7.00)
Alexander Zverev 18/1 (19.00)
Stefanos Tsitsipas 18/1 (19.00)

Group Bjorn Borg
Novak Djokovic 6/5 (2.20)
Roger Federer 4/1 (5.00)
Dominic Thiem 20/1 (21.00)
Matteo Berrettini 33/1 (34.00)

Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer are in the same group, along with Dominic Thiem (three ATP Finals appearances – three group stage exits) and debutant Matteo Berrettini.

With Djokovic and Federer rightful favourites there, we’re looking to the other group for Ones to Watch…

It’s hard to call the reigning champion an outsider, but that’s what the betting says for Alexander Zverev at 18/1 and 14/1.

The 22-year-old German is notorious for dropping in and out of form – often within the same match, let alone a tournament or season. But Zverev’s talent and ability are not in question.

‘Sascha’ Zverev has a decent record for following up success at a venue, too – previously reaching back-to-back finals at Munich, Washington and Rome. And this group and setting could just work out good for him as he returns to the O2 Arena…

Nadal has struggled to show up in London in recent years. Injury meant he missed this event in 2012, 2014, 2016 and 2018. Rafa pulled out of the Paris Masters last week. And he has the Davis Cup Finals coming up later this month, where he’ll be aiming to lead the hosts Spain to victory in Madrid.

The three young guns in this group could play each other many, many times in the years to come. The career-to-date head-to-heads make for interesting reading:

Zverev-Tsitsipas 1-3

Zverev-Medvedev 4-1

Medvedev-Tsitsipas 5-0

Those three youngsters are a combined 1-9 v Nadal. But with age (and possible injury-related fitness) on their side, a surprise group result is far from out of the question here.

With the odds and recent form in mind, too, Stefanos Tsitsipas has a decent case here, also as an 18/1 and 14/1 outsider in the betting…

The 21-year-old Greek star arrives at the end-of-season championships with a solid run of hard-court form behind him: final, semi final, semi final and quarter final since the start of October.

In the last two years the ATP Finals has seen three of the four finalists at ‘non-favourite’ prices in the Outright Winner market – Zverev at 11/1 last year (won), 2017 winner Grigor Dimitrov (11/1) and that year’s runner-up David Goffin (20/1).

As the two young guns at the most attractive prices from Group Andre Agassi, Zverev and Tsitsipas are our Ones to Watch in London next week.

Ones to Watch:

ATP Finals – Outright Winner:

  • Alexander Zverev is 18/1 Each Way with Boylesports, 14/1 Ladbrokes, Coral, William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook
  • Stefanos Tsitsipas is 18/1 Each Way with Boylesports, 14/1 Bet365, William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook

Each Way terms: 1/3 odds 1-2 places

Play starts from 2pm on Sunday. I’ll be back in the week with coverage of the tournament as the group stage takes shape.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch