Tennis Betting Advice - November 2020

ATP Finals Day 6 - tight scores at 7/1 and 14/1...

Friday 20th November 2020

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • ATP Finals – Day 6…
  • Playing for us today…
  • Doubles matches super-tight…

Welcome to Day 6 of your Ones to Watch ATP Finals daily service…

Stefanos Tsitsipas pushed Rafael Nadal to a final set last night, but the Spanish star ran out a strong winner in the end.

We have another 20/1 shot running for us in the Outright Winner market today…

This time, 23-year-old Alexander Zverev is the underdog looking to topple one of the big guns. Zverev takes on world no.1 Novak Djokovic in the afternoon Singles match (2pm).

The 8pm night match is a dead rubber between the already-qualified Daniil Medvedev, and the already-out Diego Schwartzman.

In the Doubles, we have our 3/1 tournament picks Mate Pavic & Bruno Soares first on court at 12 noon. Our pair need to win their final group game v John Peers & Michael Venus to guarantee their place in the semi finals. The bookies make them 2/5 (1.4) favourites to do so.

Tight score-lines at 7/1 and 14/1…

We’ve seen a trend for long, closely-fought Doubles matches this week…

After two more three-setters on Thursday, the tally for the week now stands at seven out of 10 Doubles matches that have gone the distance to a final-set decider.

  • Key differences between the scoring in the Doubles and Singles: There is no Deuce. 40-40 is played as a Game Point. There is no ‘third set.’ Instead, at one set all, matches go to a deciding Match Tiebreak (first to 10 points, have to win by 2 pts)

Those measures were brought in a few years ago to speed up the Doubles matches, and ramp up the excitement for viewers.

They’re working for the latter, with some exciting match-point-saving encounters. But in terms of speeding things up, this week’s Doubles matches at the O2 Arena have largely been long, attritional affairs…

That’s a statement best demonstrated by looking at the score-lines in this week’s Doubles matches at the ATP Finals. With the first two sets of matches played as ‘normal’ sets, that means a total of 20 sets have been played across the 10 group ties so far:

  • 12 of the 20 sets have been settled by a 7-6 (tiebreak) score (60%)
  • And a further 2 sets have been edged with a late break of serve, 7-5

Those are the two closest scores you can get in a set of tennis. Combined, a whopping 14 of the 20 sets played in the Doubles this week have ended 7-6 or 7-5.

To reiterate just how tight the Doubles has been so far: that’s 70% of matches going to a deciding Match Tiebreak set, and 70% of normal sets settled by the 7-6 or 7-5 scores.

With that in mind, you’d do well to look out attractive odds on those options in today’s final group matches. And indeed, into the semi finals and final at the weekend.

1st Set prices catch the eye…

The match I’ve got my eye on for those Set Correct Scores today is the early evening encounter (5.45pm), Marcel Granollers & Horacio Zeballos v Jurgen Melzer & Edouard Roger-Vasselin.

Granollers & Zeballos are the 3/6 (1.6) match favourites to win and confirm their position at the top of the group. So far all of their sets have been serve-dominated and extremely tight – with scores of 7-6, 7-5 and 7-6, 6-7, (10-8).

Melzer & Roger-Vasselin can still qualify if they win. Two of their four ‘normal’ sets have gone to a tiebreak, 7-6.

Granollers & Zeballos are the team I like here, most likely to possess the killer instinct at crucial points. In the 1st Set Correct Score market for this match, you can get them at 5/1 – 7/1 for a 7-6 score, and 11/1 – 14/1 for 7-5.

Bet365 and Skybet also have markets that combine both those score-lines, covering 7-6 & 7-5 as one bet.

  • If you fancy something really exotic, but with a live chance if this week’s form so far is anything to go by… Skybet are offering odds of 28/1 and 33/1 in each of today’s Doubles matches, in a market they call ‘Tie-break Triumph.’ Asking you to select a Doubles team to win their match 7-6, 7-6

Ones to Watch:

Doubles match, 5.45pm

Granollers & Zeballos v Melzer & Roger-Vasselin

  • 1st Set Correct Score – Granollers & Zeballos: 7-6 is 7/1 (8.0) with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 11/2 (6.5) Bet365, 21/4 (6.25) Sportingbet, Bwin, 5/1 (6.0) Ladbrokes, Coral
  • 1st Set Correct Score – Granollers & Zeballos: 7-5 is 14/1 (15.0) with Bet365, 25/2 (13.5) Sportingbet, Bwin, 12/1 (13.0) Ladbrokes, Coral, 11/1 (12.0) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook

Saturday is semi-finals day. I’ll be back then with your Day 7 email.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch