Tennis Betting Advice - November 2020

ATP Finals Day 2 – my picks & analysis for tonight…

Monday 16th November 2020

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • ATP Finals…
  • Day 2…
  • Medvedev v Zverev, 8pm…

Welcome to Day 2 of your Ones to Watch ATP Finals daily service…

Good morning. Today’s two singles matches at the O2 Arena are:

  • Novak Djokovic v Diego Schwartzman in the afternoon session (2pm+)
  • Daniil Medvedev v Alexander Zverev in the evening session (8pm+)

There’s a contrasting set of Match Winner prices with those…

World No.1 and 6/4 (2.5) tournament favourite Djokovic is short odds-on to beat ATP Finals newcomer Schwartzman, at 1/8 (1.12).

The head-to-head is 5-0 to Novak, and the Argentinean has yet to take set off him in two meetings on hard courts. In the Set Betting market, a 2-0 win for Djokovic is also odds-on today, at 4/9 (1.44).

The evening match offers a much more competitive betting heat…

Medvedev v Zverev – match picks & analysis…

Medvedev beat Zverev in the ATP Paris Masters final last month, and the bookmakers have the Russian priced up as the slight favourite today, at 8/11 (1.73).

Zverev leads the overall head-to-head, 5-2. The German is 11/10 (2.1) to win.

The one is really set up well for a good match tonight…

Until Paris indoors in October, Medvedev was cutting a frustrated figure, without a tournament win all season. He got that monkey off his back with a big Masters title in the French capital, and now arrives in London on a five-match winning run on indoor hard courts.

Zverev is in the headlines for all the wrong reasons right now, with allegations made against him regarding his personal life (which he denies). My focus is on the tennis court and the betting markets. So far, Zverev seems to be able to concentrate well on his tennis, despite a lot of controversy surrounding him off the court.

The end-of-season indoor hard-court run has proved extremely fruitful for the 23-year-old. Zverev won back-to-back ATP 250 titles in Cologne, then rolled straight on to the final at the ATP 1000 in Paris. Sascha’s indoor form-sheet this season reads 12 wins from 13 matches, with the only loss a 2-1 defeat to Medvedev in that Paris Masters title decider.

In terms of ATP Finals form here in London, Zverev has the results in the book, winning this title at 11/1 on his second visit in 2018 (after going out in the group stage on his debut in 2017). Then reaching the semi finals last year from starting odds of 18/1 in the Outright Winner market. This week, Zverev is 9/1 (10.0) with Boylesports and 15/2 (8.5) and 7/1 (8.0) in general.

Medvedev lost all three of his group games on his debut at the ATP Finals in 2019. In his defence, the Russian came into the season-ending championships after a gruelling second half of the year, in which he’d reached six finals in a row between August and October, including the US Open. He’s 11/2 (6.5) and 5/1 (6.0) to go all the way this week.

A good match in store…

A lot will ride on the outcome of this evening’s match, especially if Group Tokyo 1970 favourite Djokovic opens with a win this afternoon. With both Medvedev and Zverev both still to face the world no.1 – and only two men can go through from this group to the semi finals.

On Sunday night we saw Dominic Thiem beat Stefanos Tsitsipas by two sets to one, in a rematch of last year’s final. Twelve months ago, that title decider also went the distance, with Thiem getting some revenge yesterday.

We could see another three-set battle this evening. As outlined already, Medvedev & Zverev are closely matched on recent form. The Russian won the most recent clash. The German leads their career head-to-head. Both of these young men stand a tall 6’6” with big serves that lend themselves to indoor playing conditions. Medvedev is ranked no.4 in the world, Zverev is no.7…

Rather than trying to call the winner here, I’m going for the Total Sets = 3 option, widely available at around 6/5 (2.2). And planning to settle down tonight to enjoy what should be an entertaining match featuring some high-quality tennis, from two players expected to win numerous Grand Slam titles between them in the years to come.

Double Fault opportunity…

This being a big tournament, we also get the rare pleasure of the bookies pricing up a few serve-based markets.

An area of interest for us in this match is the Most Double Faults. As I’ve noted before in recent times, double faults are a good barometer of how well (or not) Zverev is playing. And even when he’s playing well, he’s likely to rack up a few doubles, such is his aggressive style.

Medvedev goes for it on his second serve on occasions, too. But the overall stats say the German is the man to follow in the Most Double Faults market today:

Zverev has served more Double Faults than any other man on the tour this year (182). That’s 100 more than Medvedev, even though the Russian has only played three matches less.

And in the head-to-head between these two, Zverev has landed this bet in each of their last three meetings.

From scouting around online this morning, I’ve found three bookmakers offering this market – see below for the details.

That’s my take on today’s tennis at the O2 Arena. Anticipating a three-set battle between Medvedev and Zverev this evening, with the German the pick to serve the Most Double Faults.

Ones to Watch:

Daniil Medvedev v Alexander Zverev

  • Total Sets = 3 is 5/4 (2.25) with Bet365, 6/5 (2.2) Skybet, William Hill, BetVictor, SpreadEx, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 888 Sport, Unibet, 23/20 (2.15) Ladbrokes, Coral, Sportingbet, Bwin, Boylesports, Betfred

Note: some bookies call this bet Over 2.5 Sets.

  • Most Double Faults: Zverev is 32/25 (2.28) with Marathonbet, 10/11 (1.91) Bet365, 8/11 (1.73) Skybet

The match will be live on Amazon Prime Video from 8pm. Live streaming is available on bookie websites, too, including Bet365 and Skybet.

I’ll be back tomorrow with your Day 3 email.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch