Tennis Betting Advice - November 2020
ATP Finals Day 4 – including Djokovic v Medvedev…
Wednesday 18th November 2020
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Welcome to Day 4 of your Ones to Watch ATP Finals daily service…
It’s a shame the bookies don’t offer Double Fault markets more often.
I went back over my records yesterday evening. This season, I’ve had a total of four bets in the Double Fault department – and four winners. I’ve got another selection lined up for this afternoon. Let’s see if we can keep that run going.
A double fault was also our undoing on Tuesday, though. Tournament pick Andrey Rublev served a double at match point against Stefanos Tsitsipas. A win there would’ve kept Rublev’s chances alive. Now he’s out of the tournament. Small margins.
Here’s my take on today’s matches and markets at the O2 Arena. Play starts from 12 noon…
3/1 for the No.1 pair…
There’s a decent array of bookmakers offering an Outright Winner market for the Doubles event this morning.
As with the Singles, the prices are pretty bunched up. The team I like are – somewhat unusually for me – in at the top of the betting. At 3/1, I feel Mate Pavic & Bruno Soares can go all the way here, and their price is likely to drop shorter in the next couple of days…
The Croatian & Brazilian pair came into this event as the No.1 Doubles team of 2020. In September, they won the US Open on hard courts. In October, they also reached the final on clay at the French Open, finishing runners-up. These two men also made the final indoors at Paris last month. Momentum is with them…
Pavic & Soares are favourites to beat Marcel Granollers & Horacio Zeballos today. A win there would cement Mate & Bruno in pole position to win their group and face the second-place team from the other group in the semi finals. It’s not a great leap from where we are today to see these guys in the final at 3/1 come the weekend.
Zverev v Schwartzman…
Back to the Singles matches now, and the bookies are taking no chances with Zverev getting the Most Double Faults today. Last time out he was around Evens (2.0) for this bet against Daniil Medvedev (7-2 Double Faults tally to Zverev). This time, the German is priced as short as 1/5 (1.2) in this market.
Over 5.5 Total Double Faults appeals to me in this match. As well as Zverev having the potential to beat that total on his own, Schwartzman can bring a couple or more doubles of his own, too. Indeed, when these two played each other in Cologne last month, Schwartzman served five double faults.
At the US Open 2019 (four sets played), the double faults tally was 17-1 to Zverev.
With this being a must-win match for both players, the pressure could tell when it comes to second serves at crucial points.
Djokovic v Medvedev…
The match of the day comes in the evening session, with Novak Djokovic taking on Daniil Medvedev…
The young Russian is one of the few players who dares to take on the world no.1 at his own game, staying with him in long, brutal, athletic rallies – and seemingly deliberately drawing Novak into those exchanges on occasion. It’s a brave tactic, but Medvedev has the stomach for it – and the game.
Five of their six previous meetings have seen both men win a set. To put it another way, only one of their six encounters has been settled in straight sets.
Their last three contests on the ATP Tour have all been won by the 2-1 score, and Medvedev has won two of them. At outsider odds of 5/1 for a 2-1 win, the Russian is my lively underdog selection for tonight. He’s 2/1 to win the match, but if he does, it’s likely to be close…
Ones to Watch:
ATP Finals Doubles – Outright Winner:
Alexander Zverev v Diego Schwartzman:
Novak Djokovic v Daniil Medvedev:
I’ll be back tomorrow with your Day 5 email.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson