Tennis Betting Advice - November 2020
ATP Finals – don’t rule out these 20/1 shots…
Thursday 19th November 2020
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Welcome to Day 5 of your Ones to Watch ATP Finals daily service…
The Double Faults stats continue to deliver for us.
Alexander Zverev and Diego Schwartzman produced 6 double faults in their match on Wednesday afternoon. And in terms of our Over 5.5 Double Faults bet, it wasn’t as close as that sounds. After a total of 5 doubles between them in the first set, Schwartzman double-faulted in the opening game of the second set, to take the tally to 6.
Elsewhere, we’ve been on the edge of things so far this week…
On Tuesday, we noted that the majority of the Doubles matches were going to final-set deciders. Both matches on Tuesday then duly got settled in straight sets, albeit it with a 7-6 tiebreak set featuring on both occasions. Then, yesterday, normal service was resumed with both of the day’s Doubles matches going to the wire, finishing with a 2-1 score-line.
In the Singles, I earmarked Daniil Medvedev’s underdog potential against Novak Djokovic last night. Well done if you took 2/1 on the Medvedev win. As is my wont, I went for the biggest price, taking the 2-1 Set Betting option for the Russian at 5/1, anticipating a much closer upset that what transpired.
Talking of being on the edge of things, there are two Next Gen names still in with a shot at the big time this week…
No guarantees for the Top 2…
Going into the final round of group matches over the next two days, there are intriguing situations:
Those are both winner-takes-all matches; whoever wins goes through to the semi finals…
Nadal and Djokovic are the big guns, the established names. But Rafa has never actually won this tournament. Nor, for that matter, last month’s Paris Masters. Both of those are indoor hard-court tournaments played at the end of the season. Traditionally, this is not a good time of the year to be a Nadal backer.
Djokovic has collected the ATP Finals title on five occasions – but hasn’t held the trophy aloft since 2015.
Both Nadal and Djokovic have already been beaten once this week, losing to sparkling performances in their most recent group matches, to Dominic Thiem and Daniil Medvedev, respectively.
Two more of the young guns await on the final match-day. And a potentially crucial piece of form here is that both Tsitsipas and Zverev have won this tournament before. The Greek won the ATP Finals twelve months ago. And Zverev took the trophy in London in 2018…
It’s not over yet…
The way this year’s field is now panning out, it’s not over yet for Tsitsipas and Zverev. Both men are around 2/1 to win their final group match and book a place in the semis. Obviously, it rides on those big clashes, v Nadal for Stefanos and v Djokovic for Sascha Zverev.
What I’m interested in here are the Outright Winner prices, in a market that is now Win Only. From day one odds of 12/1 and 8/1, top prices of 20/1 and 18/1 are now available for those two most recent ATP Finals champs…
It goes without saying that those prices will tumble significantly should they pull off the upsets and reach the semi finals. At those odds, one of Tsitsipas or Zverev into the final four with a live chance of going all the way would be good enough for me.
Working through the predicted match-ups and prices, there’s a case here to say that today’s Outright quotes work out bigger than if you took Tsitsipas and Zverev round by round from here in the Match Winner markets, rolling up as you went.
This is a tantalising Ones to Watch situation for us. If one or both of these young men get past the Top 2 hurdle in their final group match, then it’ll be game on. With the trophy there for the taking for anyone left standing, and with a great price or two in your pocket.
Ones to Watch:
ATP Finals – Outright Winner
I’ll be back tomorrow with your Day 6 email.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson