Tennis Betting Advice - November 2020

ATP Finals Day 8 – The Finals…

Sunday 22nd November 2020

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • ATP Finals – Day 8…
  • Medvedev v Thiem, 6pm…
  • 7/1 to go the distance…

Welcome to Day 8 of your Ones to Watch ATP Finals daily service…

This week’s ATP Finals have been highly competitive, across both the Singles and the Doubles.

Saturday showcased just how close it’s been…

Both Singles semi finals went the distance to three sets. Dominic Thiem blew four match points in the second set against World No.1 Novak Djokovic, before steadying himself to eventually win 7-5, 6-7, 7-6 (7-5) in a three-hour epic. The Austrian came from 0-4 down in the deciding tiebreak, to take it 7-5.

In the evening match, World No.2 Rafael Nadal served for the match at 5-4 in the second set v Daniil Medvedev. But the Russian broke back to love, and went on to win 3-6, 7-6 (7-4), 6-3.

  • After being on the edge of things a few times this week, this time my Set Betting picks clicked, with Thiem winning 2-1 at 4/1, and Medvedev landing the 2-1 option at odds of 3/1

In the Doubles, eight teams started the week, all with the chance of ending the season as the year-end No.1. And the tournament has gone on to produce some very tight score-lines:

  • 9 of the 13 completed Doubles matches this week (69%) have gone to a final-set decider
  • 14 out of 26 standard completed sets have produced tiebreaks, for the 7-6 set score-line (54%)

The injury-hampered pair of Marcel Granollers & Horacio Zeballos were beaten in straight sets in yesterday’s semi final by Wesley Koolhof & Nikola Mektic.

In the other semi, Joe Salisbury & Rajeev Ram had a set & a break lead v Jurgen Melzer & Edouard Roger-Vasselin, but couldn’t get themselves over the line…

It ended up going to a deciding Match Tiebreak (first to 10 points, have to win by 2 pts). Salisbury & Ram went 7-1 up, and also had a match point…

Melzer & Roger-Vasellin somehow turned it around, and they might feel their name is on the trophy now, despite the odds constantly being against them this week…

They’ve now saved a total of five match points in the tournament. All three of their completed matches have gone to a decider. And the other was handed to them via Granollers & Zeballos’ injury withdrawal in Friday’s final group match.

Have the Austrian & Frenchman used up all of their nine lives? Or is there one more surprise still to come?

Those Doubles trends outlined above – long matches, and tiebreaks – could be worth keeping in mind for the final this afternoon (3.30pm)…

Koolhof & Mektic are the 4/6 (1.67) favourites to beat Melzer & Roger-Vasselin. The upset is 6/5 (2.2). The favourites are 6/4 (2.5) to win 2-0. The underdogs are 4/1 to pull off another 2-1 nail-biter.

Farewell, Jurgen…

This will be the final match for Jurgen Melzer before he hangs up his racket. The 39-year-old Austrian – a French Open semi-finalist in the Singles back in 2010 – will sign off today on what’s been a long & impressive career.

  • Yesterday’s match-point saving win for Melzer & Roger-Vasselin means the 2020 Doubles World No.1 title goes to our pals from earlier this week, Mate Pavic & Bruno Soares

Melzer may be retiring, but there’s a younger Austrian who’s already taken the baton for his country…

The Final – Medvedev v Thiem…

Dominic Thiem won a first Grand Slam title this year, taking the US Open as a 9/1 shot. And also finishing runner-up at the Australian Open in January as a 22/1 Each Way Ones to Watch selection.

Those two results, along with a win at the ATP Masters 1000 event at Indian Wells last year, show that the 27-year-old Austrian is now very much a contender on hard courts, as well as the clay.

Having made two French Open finals on the dirt, Thiem’s biggest trophy wins have come on hard courts. He’ll be looking to add a first ATP Finals title today.

Whatever happens this evening, we’ll be seeing a new name on the trophy – for the fifth year running…

The man on the other side of the net is Daniil Medvedev. The 24-year-old World No.4 has won all four of his matches this week, and beaten both World No.1 Djokovic and No.2 Nadal along the way. If he beats No.3 Thiem today, that’ll be the hat-trick.

After these two guys took out Djokovic & Nadal yesterday, Greg Rusedski wheeled out the ‘changing of the guard’ line. It does feel like we’re getting closer and closer to that moment. This is set up for another great match this evening…

Thiem leads the career head-to-head, 3-1. But Medvedev has been the most consistent player this week. He was 0-3 in previous meetings v Nadal, before bucking that trend yesterday.

The bookies make Medvedev the favourite today, at 8/11 (1.73). With Thiem at 11/10 (2.1).

It’s 5/4 (2.25) to go to three sets.

7/1 to go the distance…

With another close and exciting match seemingly in store, Bet365’s ‘Go the Distance’ market looks well worth a look. It’s 7/1 for the ‘Yes’ option – which pays out on the match being decided by a tiebreak (7-6) in the final set

That was the outcome in Thiem’s semi-final win over Djokovic yesterday, and also in the final here between Thiem and Stefanos Tsitsipas last year.

In 2018, the only previous indoor hard-courts meeting between Medvedev and Thiem also went to a final-set tiebreak.

To add even more fuel on that fire – Thiem’s US Open win in September also went to a final-set ‘breaker, with Dominic coming through 7-6 in the fifth set of the final against Alexander Zverev.

That 7/1 (8.0) with Bet365 continues to entice when you consider that Betway have that option, called ‘GOING ALL THE WAY – Match To Go To Tie Break In 3rd Set’ at just 7/4 (2.75).

The final being decided on a tiebreak would be a fitting way to end this tournament. Which also brings down the curtain on the 2020 season, and as is the last ATP Finals match at London’s O2 Arena after a 12-year residency, with these championships moving to Italy next year.

The Set Betting options include Medvedev to win 2-1 at 3/1 (4.0), and the Thiem 2-1 score at 7/2 (4.5). You can also get around 6/1 (7.0) for each player to ‘Lose the 1st Set and Win the Match.’ You could tie yourself in a knot with those.

I’m not going to try and call the match winner today. This is a match that has all the makings of a three-set classic. In the Total Sets market, I’m going for three sets. And I can’t resist that 7/1 special for it to go the distance to a final-set tiebreak, too.

Elsewhere, in the serving markets, the bookies look to have it right with Medvedev the favourite for the Most Aces. And Skybet can’t split them for the Most Double Faults, at 5/4 (2.25) the pair, with the tie at 7/2 (4.5).

  • Note: some bookies call the Total Sets market ‘Over 2.5 Sets’ or ‘Both Players to Win a Set’

Ones to Watch:

Daniil Medvedev v Dominic Thiem

  • Total Sets = 3 is 5/4 (2.25) with Bet365, Marathonbet, 6/5 (2.2) Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 23/20 (2.15) Ladbrokes, Coral, 11/10 (2.1) William Hill, BetVictor, Betfred
  • Go The Distance? – Yes is 7/1 with Bet365

The final is live on BBC2, Amazon Prime Video, and live streaming on selected bookie websites.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch