Tennis Betting Advice - November 2020
ATP Finals – the form man at 10/1…
Sunday 15th November 2020
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Welcome to Day 1 of your Ones to Watch ATP Finals daily service…
The men’s end-of-season championships starts this afternoon, with the first singles match on court at 2pm…
The tournament is played on indoor hard courts at the O2 Arena in London. This is the 12th and final year that the event is being held at this venue. Next year, the ATP Finals move to Turin in Italy.
I’ll be in your inbox with my thoughts, analysis and advice, throughout the week. We’re kicking off today with a look at the Outright Winner market…
ATP Finals – Outright Winner analysis…
This event is made up of an eight-man field, split into two round-robin groups. The top two players from each group will progress through to the semi finals…
Group Tokyo 1970:
Novak Djokovic
Daniil Medvedev
Alexander Zverev
Diego Schwartzman
Group London 2020:
Rafael Nadal
Dominic Thiem
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Andrey Rublev
Here are the Outright Winner prices, before a ball has been hit:
Djokovic 6/4 (2.5)
Nadal 11/2 (6.5)
Medvedev 11/2 (6.5)
Thiem 8/1 (9.0)
Zverev 8/1 (9.0)
Rublev 10/1 (11.0)
Tsitsipas 12/1 (13.0)
Schwartzman 40/1 (41.0)
There was a five-year spell between 2012 and 2016 when this tournament was dominated by the ‘Big Four.’ Djokovic reached five finals in a row in that time, winning four. With Andy Murray, Roger Federer and Nadal the other men to get to the championship match.
The Big Four is becoming less of a thing these days. Indeed, this year, just two of those names are at this event – Djokovic and Nadal.
And in the last three seasons, the ATP Finals have seen newer names contesting for the trophy, and at plenty of double-figure prices…
2019
Tsitsipas won (18/1), Thiem runner-up (20/1)
2018
Zverev won (11/1), Djokovic runner-up (8/13)
2017
Grigor Dimitrov won (11/1), David Goffin runner-up (20/1)
We managed to successfully latch onto Tsitsipas and Dimitrov when they won the title.
And overall, five of the last six finalists have been at outsider prices of 11/1 and greater. With that juicy bone in our jaws, let’s make sure we’re on a worthy underdog this year, too…
The form man at 10/1…
It makes a lot of sense to target Nadal’s group here. Rafa’s last performance of note here was a semi final in 2015. He last made the final in 2013.
In 2012, 2014, 2016, and 2018, injury and end-of-season fatigue kept Nadal away from London altogether. And in 2017, the Spaniard played just one group match before having to pull out injured.
You can never rule a great champion like Nadal out. But in his own words:
“The indoor surfaces have not been the ideal surfaces for my tennis game since the beginning of my career.”
Looking for someone to come through Group London 2020 and reach the semi finals, with a chance of going all the way. The man I like at the prices is Andrey Rublev…
The 23-year-old Russian has been one of the form players of the year – if not the form man on the ATP Tour:
I put Rublev up as a Ones to Watch pick at all three of the Grand Slams played this season, at big outsider odds each time (50/1+ and 100/1+).
He’s made massive leaps forward in consistency and winning mentality this season, and at 10/1 there’s a fair case to say Rublev’s chances for the ATP Finals are being underrated…
Until he wins a trophy like this, or better still, gets to a first Grand Slam final, Rublev won’t be talked of in quite the same breath as fellow Next Gen names like Thiem, Zverev, and Medvedev.
For example, Andrey’s fellow Russian, Daniil Medvedev, has won just one title this year (albeit it last time out, at the Paris Masters) – but is just 11/2 (6.5) at best this week, in a group that contains world no.1 Djokovic.
While I’m not saying that Rublev is a better player on the big stage than Medvedev just yet – he’s certainly getting there.
In terms of the other names in this group fighting for a place in the semi finals, Thiem and Tsitsipas both arrive in London with a couple of question marks over their fitness and form. Thiem will probably be in the better shape, having got over blisters that hampered him in Vienna last month – where he was knocked out in straight sets by Rublev.
Tsitsipas’ recent leg injury is more of a concern. He sounds hopeful rather than confident coming into this week. Rublev also won his last competitive hard-court match v the Greek, at the US Open last year.
All in all, Andrey has had the season of his life – and it’s not over yet…
In a field of eight players, where five of them are at single-figure odds in the Outright betting, Rublev is my idea of the form man to follow at 10/1.
Ones to Watch:
Outright Winner pick – Each Way
Each Way terms: 1/3 odds 1-2 places.
Play starts from 2pm. You can watch the ATP Finals live across the BBC and Amazon Prime Video.
I’ll be back tomorrow with your Day 2 email.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson