Tennis Betting Advice - November 2020

ATP Finals – my 3 picks for Day 3…

Tuesday 17th November 2020

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • ATP Finals…
  • Day 3…
  • Singles & Doubles…

Welcome to Day 3 of your Ones to Watch ATP Finals daily service…

Good morning. Today’s two singles matches at the O2 Arena are:

  • Rafael Nadal v Dominic Thiem in the afternoon session (2pm+)
  • Stefanos Tsitsipas v Andrey Rublev in the evening session (8pm+)

Close calls in the Doubles…

We’re kicking off today with a foray into the doubles event, where play starts from 12 noon

Just like the singles tournament, the ATP Finals Doubles features the top eight ranked competitors of the season.

Doubles matches on the ATP Tour are played as best of three sets, but with one crucial difference – third sets, if required, are played as first-to-10-points ‘Champions Tiebreaks.’

Three of the four matches played so far this week have required that deciding set tiebreak. Close score-lines and 2-1 results also look on the cards today, and indeed throughout the week…

There are some vastly experienced doubles players on show here – and you can expect these matches to be fiercely competitive. There is big money and prestige at stake for these guys.

Kevin Krawietz & Andreas Mies v Lukasz Kubot & Marcelo Melo
12 noon

Krawietz made a few headlines earlier this year, taking a job in a local supermarket when coronavirus brought the tennis to a standstill. Kubot is well-known for being something of a ‘character’ on court (= temper). And Mies and Melo are two guys who have made their names by sticking predominantly to the team version of the sport, with plenty of success.

Both pairs had three-set matches in their first outings at the O2 Arena this week. Kubot & Melo won the last meeting against today’s opponents, by a 2-1 score, just the other week (31st October).

  • Each of Krawietz & Mies’ last 3 matches have gone to a final set decider. As have each of the last 4 matches for Kubot & Melo – and a noteworthy 7 of their last 9

Rajeev Ram & Joe Salisbury v Wesley Koolhof & Nikola Mektic

Salisbury is flying the flag for Britain this week. Along with veteran Ram, the pair won their opening match 2-1 on Sunday. Koolhof & Mektic also started with a three-setter this week…

  • Ram & Salisbury’s last 3 matches have all gone to 3 Sets. Koolhof & Mektic beat today’s opponents by the 2-1 score when they last met, in September

Nadal v Thiem – serving stats…

On to some more familiar names now, and the afternoon match between Rafael Nadal and Dominic Thiem (2pm).

My focus here is the serving stats and markets…

Alexander Zverev delivered for us on that front yesterday, serving the Most Double Faults in his match v Daniil Medvedev, 7-2. Zverev reeled off three ugly double faults in his very first service game – more than his opponent produced in the entire match. Zverev remains one to watch in that market for the rest of the week.

Here are the at-a-glance stats for Nadal and Thiem:

  • Thiem has served the Most Aces in 8 of his last 9 meetings with Nadal. Including their last encounter, on hard courts at the Australian Open this year
  • Thiem has also served the Most Double Faults in 7 of his last 9 matches v Rafa, also including that Melbourne clash earlier this year

Thiem served Most Aces and Double Faults is his opening match this week in London, v Stefanos Tsitsipas. It was vice versa for Rafa in his match against Andrey Rublev, outscored in both of those departments.

The season-to-date overall figures show that Thiem has served a total of 79 double faults across 29 matches in 2020. While Nadal’s figure is 52, from 30 matches.

On the Aces front, Thiem has 171 and Nadal has 128.

In today’s betting, Thiem is a clear favourite for the Most Aces, at 4/9 (1.44) with Bet365 and William Hill, and as short as 1/4 (1.25) with Skybet.

The Most Double Faults option is more appealing, with Thiem available at bigger prices, including a standout 11/10 (2.1).

Ones to Watch:

Kevin Krawietz & Andreas Mies v Lukasz Kubot & Marcelo Melo

  • Total Sets = 3 is 11/8 (2.38) with Bet365, 23/20 (2.15) Ladbrokes, Coral, Sportingbet, Bwin, 11/10 (2.1) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Betway

Rajeev Ram & Joe Salisbury v Wesley Koolhof & Nikola Mektic

  • Total Sets = 3 is 11/8 (2.38) with Bet365, 11/10 (2.1) Ladbrokes, Coral, Sportingbet, Bwin, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Betway

Note: some bookies call this bet Over 2.5 Sets.

Rafael Nadal v Dominic Thiem

  • Most Double Faults: Thiem is 11/10 (2.1) with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 4/5 (1.8) Bet365, 7/10 (1.7) Betway, 69/100 (1.69) Marathonbet

The matches will be live on Amazon Prime Video and the BBC from 12 noon. Live streaming is available on bookie websites, too, including Bet365 and Skybet.

I’ll be back tomorrow with your Day 4 email.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch