Tennis Betting Advice - November 2020
Sunday Night Club – go big in Paris…
Sunday 1st November 2020
In your Ones to Watch email today:
We found two semi-finalists again last week. No cigar, but an excellent showing from our two men nonetheless…
Especially our big underdog pick at ATP Vienna, the returning-from-injury Kevin Anderson. We said that fitness might be the problem, but were happy to take that risk at the massive odds on offer. The 34-year-old got all the way to the semi finals before that issue kicked in, with big Kev forced to retire with a right thigh problem in the semi v Andrey Rublev, who went on to lift the trophy.
From 100/1, 80/1 & 66/1 at the start of the week in Vienna, Anderson was trading at just 7/1 by the time the semi finals came along. That’s good Ones to Watch business…
Five semi-finalists from eight Outright Winner picks since the end of the French Open is pretty good going, too. And considering we had both finalists in Paris at fancy prices, then we’ve certainly got nothing to complain or worry about.
We head into this week’s tournament with plenty of confidence, as we go after the big odds once again…
Go big in Paris…
The top men head back to the French capital this week, for one of the penultimate events of the season, the ATP 1000 Paris Masters. This indoor hard-court tournament is a staple on the autumn calendar.
In terms of how to approach the Outright Winner market here, this handful of finalists from the last four years at the Paris Masters tells us pretty much all we need to know:
2019 – Runner-up – Denis Shapovalov 80/1
2018 – Winner – Karen Khachanov 40/1
2017 – Winner – Jack Sock 40/1
2017 – Runner-up – Filip Krajinovic 300/1
2016 – Runner-up – John Isner 80/1
Outsiders tend to go well here. That can be down to end-of-year fatigue and injuries, and/ or the top players perhaps having one eye on the upcoming season-ending championships in London, at the ATP Finals.
Add in the fact that world no.1 Novak Djokovic has won four of the last seven titles here, but won’t be defending his Paris Indoors crown this year. And the stage is set for another opportunity or two for the outsiders…
One to Watch at 40/1 & 33/1…
I’m planning to be in touch with you frequently this week. It’s a big tournament, and the season is drawing to a close, and I want to savour every day of this event.
In terms of the Outright Winner market, we may go in a couple of times, with attractive Each Way prices for appealing outsiders our Ones to Watch method of choice, as ever.
Let’s get the ball rolling this evening with our first pick, who plays in the 1st round on Monday afternoon…
Felix-Auger-Alliassime appeared in our Ones to Watch in 2020 list at the start of the year. The supremely talented 20-year-old Canadian might still be searching for a first ATP trophy – but to say he’s been knocking on the door is an understatement…
Felix has now reached six finals, and had to settle for runner-up every time. Three of those finals were last season, and the other three were this year. Most recently, indoors at ATP Cologne in October. He also reached the semi finals in the second Cologne event the week after.
If he can get past the respected but on-the-wane Marin Cilic in the 1st round on Monday, then Auger-Aliassime would be a short favourite to beat Salvatore Caruso or Corentin Moutet in round two.
And while seeded names like Stefanos Tsitsipas (8/1) and Matteo Berrettini (18/1) are dangerous. The truth is this section of the draw is not as scary as some of the routes through the field in the top half of the draw, which contains the 2/1 favourite Rafael Nadal, man-of-the-moment Rublev (8/1), and back-to-back Cologne double title winner Alexander Zverev (10/1).
At odds of 40/1 and 33/1, Auger-Aliassime fits the criteria as an outsider to follow here...
Ones to Watch:
Outright Winner pick – Each Way
ATP Paris Masters
Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places.
Play starts from 10am UK time.
I’ll be back throughout the week with more from Paris.
Enjoy the tennis…