Tennis Betting Advice - November 2020

100/1 stat – with three tournaments to come…

Thursday 5th November 2020

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Wawrinka v Rublev tonight…
  • 100/1 statistic…
  • Three tournaments to come…

The numbers game (continued)…

I mentioned last week that I’ve started going over my 2020 records, ready for our annual end-of-season review of the numbers.

We noted that so far this year, over 40% of our Ones to Watch tournament Outright Winner picks have made it to quarter finals or better.

At the outsider prices that we go for, that’s a very good strike-rate. Giving us plenty of weeks on the tour when we’ve got a player or two going deep in a tournament…

And when they go deep – that means we have a fair chance of a Big One going all the way to a final.

It requires plenty of patience, of course. This week at the Paris Masters, for example, I put up five picks, at odds ranging from 28/1 to 80/1…

As I write, we’ve got just one man left standing. With 28/1 Stan Wawrinka an underdog going into the last match of the day in Paris, against the in-form Andrey Rublev (who started the week in with the favourites at 8/1).

Prime viewing…

Incidentally, you can watch Wawrinka v Rublev from 7pm+ this evening, live on Amazon Prime Video (as well as live streaming on several bookmaker websites).

And if you can manage to avoid the live scores, you can catch up on the action at your leisure later on, if you so wish, thanks to Amazon offering replays of all the matches…

That’s a feature that Ones to Watch member Phil has been enjoying using this season:

“The recent involvement of Amazon Prime in tennis has been fantastic for me. I can’t always watch live due to work commitments, but with Amazon I can watch the replays when it suits me”

Now for the 100/1 statistic that I dangled in today’s email heading…

I collect all the pre-tournament Outright Winner odds throughout the season – not just the players that we back, but everyone in the draw.

Last year, 12 of the 125 tournaments saw a player priced at 100/1+ make it to a final. The 2020 figures to date are showing a growth on that 10% figure…

  • With 52 finals played in this shortened & altered 2020 season, 8 tournaments have seen a 100/1+ shot in the final (15%)

That’s a mighty encouraging statistic for you & I, as we uniformly do our business at the larger end of the pricing spectrum.

While we’re at it, I can tell you that 21 of those 52 events have seen a player reach the final at odds of 50/1 and greater (40%). Again, an exciting number, that franks our approach to the tennis Outright Winner markets.

Three tournaments to come…

Between now and Christmas I’ll be bringing you more number-crunching and – hopefully – some pearls of wisdom to help us as we head into 2021.

After Paris this week, there are still three more tournaments on the 2020 calendar:

  • Next week – WTA Linz in Austria, and ATP Sofia in Bulgaria
  • 15th November – the ATP Finals in London

And once again, we’ll be going for the big prices…

Last year, a then 15-year-old Coco Gauff came through qualifying at Linz, and went all the way, taking her first – and to do date, only – WTA title on the Senior tour. Jelena Ostapenko was a 25/1 runner-up.

In 2018, that women’s indoor event in Austria produced a 20/1 winning finalist, with a 100/1 runner-up.

On the men’s tour, ATP Sofia has been a recent source of large-odds finalists, too. With a 33/1 runner-up in 2019. Then a whopping 250/1 title win in 2018, and also a 50/1 runner-up that year.

In terms of the prestigious, season-ending ATP Finals at the O2 Arena, we bagged an 18/1 winner with our Ones to Watch pick Stefanos Tsitsipas twelve months ago. And had 11/1 success with Grigor Dimitrov in 2017.

All of which means we can look forward to those three upcoming events this month, armed with stacks of big-price ammunition – and the ever-tantalising prospect of finding and landing the next Big One.

P.S
Enjoy the tennis. Whatever the result this evening, Wawrinka v Rublev should be an entertaining match, with some blistering ball-striking on show. They’re due on court around 7 or 8pm…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch