Tennis Betting Advice - November 2021

Paris Masters - 3-set contenders at 200/1...

Wednesday 3rd November 2021

The long matches continued on day two at the Rolex Paris Masters. A time-consuming nine of the 15 matches played on Tuesday went to a deciding set.

That meant that in the final scheduled match of the day, our 33/1+ Ones to Watch pick Casper Ruud didn’t get on court until 11.30pm local time. Casper did great though, keeping his concentration and beating an ailing Alexander Bublik, 6-4, 6-0.

Elsewhere, our 80/1+ outsider Taylor Fritz was involved in one of the aforementioned three-set battles, coming from behind to beat the dangerous Lorenzo Sonego, 3-6, 6-2, 6-3.

After six of 11 matches went the distance to three sets on Monday, that means the 1st round of the Paris Masters has produced a total of 15 out of 26 contests going to a decider. Compare that 58% strike-rate to a 31% ratio at the previous ATP 1000 Masters event at Indian Wells last month. And you can see that the slow-playing indoor courts here in the French capital are producing some gruelling battles.

The courts will speed up as the week goes on, as the playing surface gets worn down and that bit slicker, the more tennis that’s played on it. But we’re still in the early stages of this big tournament, and in the betting markets, we should look out for three-set opportunities on the upcoming schedule…

3-set contenders at 200/1…

Here are three contenders from Wednesday’s list that I feel could turn into long matches. And – ever the aggressor – my angle here to is to back a player to win 2-1 in the Set Betting market, as opposed to the shorter odds for 3 Sets in the Total Sets betting.

If you’re following me in, strap in for some potential big-odds excitement this afternoon…

Adrian Mannarino to win 2-1 v Gael Monfils @ 13/2 (7.5)

Monfils is the favourite in this all-French contest. But Mannarino has an excellent indoor hard-court record, and has pushed his more illustrious compatriot in all of their previous meetings – winning at least a set each time (career head-to-head: 3-2 to Monfils). I like the biggest price here, which is the underdog to come through in three sets, 2-1, at 6/1+.

Carlos Alcaraz to win 2-1 Jannik Sinner @ 11/2 (6.5)

Two Ones to Watch in 2021 names here. But teenager Alcaraz looks the value today. He had a three-set win in the 1st round, while Sinner had a Bye as one of the seeded players. The 20-year-old Italian is the favourite today, but has played a lot of tennis lately, and might just slow down a little as the end of season approaches. Alcaraz is a very hotly-tipped 18-year-old, and can cause problems as the underdog here – just as he did in their only previous meeting, in which he beat Sinner by two sets to one.

Daniil Medvedev to win 2-1 v Ilya Ivashka @ 7/2 (4.5)

In this one I’m going with the match favourite – but this might not be plain sailing for Medvedev. The reigning Paris champion hasn’t played all that much since winning the US Open in September, and a slow start from the world no.2 in the first set or two wouldn’t surprise me here. We saw world no.1 Novak Djokovic require the full three sets to get past a tricky indoors opponent last night. It could be a similar story here. The career head-to-head v Ivashkva is 3-1 to Medvedev. They haven’t met since 2018. But it’s nevertheless notable to me that Ivashka managed to take a set off the Russian in both of their previous indoor matches (2016).

At those prices, I’m taking the three 2-1 scores as singles. And with the treble worth around 200/1 – with Bet365’s 10% Acca Bonus ramping those odds up to a nerve-jangling 240/1 – I’d be mad not to cover the full house, too.

Ones to Watch

ATP Paris – Rolex Paris Masters

I’ve listed the best prices, which are with Bet365:

Set Betting:

  • Adrian Mannarino to win 2-1 v Gael Monfils @ 13/2 (7.5) 
  • Carlos Alcaraz to win 2-1 Jannik Sinner @ 11/2 (6.5)
  • Daniil Medvedev to win 2-1 v Ilya Ivashka @ 7/2 (4.5) 
  • TREBLE. All 3 to win 2-1 @ 218/1 (240/1 with 10% Acca Bonus)

Play starts in those matches this afternoon, from around 2.30pm.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch