Tennis Betting Advice - November 2021

ATP Finals - Casper can take the night match...

Wednesday 17th November 2021

Sinner enters the field…

He left it as late as possible before announcing it. But as expected, Matteo Berrettini wasn’t able to recover from the injury he sustained in his opening match on Sunday night.

On Tuesday, the Italian pulled out of the ATP Finals in Turin, replaced in the field by another home hope, Jannik Sinner. The stand-in won his match last night, and now has a shot at reaching the semis by claiming 2nd place in that group, depending on other results.

Slim pickings…

The 20-year-old has won five ATP titles in his sharp young career, and three of them have come on indoor hard courts. If I’d seen a really juicy price on Jannik in the revised Outright Winner markets this morning, I might have been tempted to back him to prevail in front of a raucous Italian crowd this week.

However, some bookies have flat refused to list Sinner in the Outright market. And of those that have, most are only now betting Win Only. Such as Bet365 and William Hill, who have him at 16/1.

Elsewhere, the Each Way terms, where they can be found, are slightly prohibitive at 1/3 odds for reaching the final. In usual weeks and tournaments, we get the more appealing 1/2 the odds.

Betfred have Sinner at 12/1 Each Way. That equates to 4/1 for the debutant to make the final – a task that will most likely require having to beat world no.1 and five-time ATP World Tour Finals champion Novak Djokovic in the semis. Not impossible, but also, not enticing enough of a prospect for me at the prices being offered.

If you do fancy getting behind Sinner, then Ladbrokes & Coral is undoubtedly the place the go this morning. All part of one parent company these days, Ladbrokes-Coral have Jannik at 25/1 Each Way. Judging by some of the emails I’ve received from Ones to Watch members this year, though, it sounds like you’d be lucky to get more than a couple of quid on before those firms limited your stakes.

Tsitsipas v Ruud tonight…

One man who can give himself a shot at qualification for the semi finals tonight is Casper Ruud. Another of the star young performers that we earmarked to follow at the start of the season, the 22-year-old has become the first Norwegian man to ever reach the season-end ATP Finals.

Casper put up a good fight against Djokovic in match one, squeezed out of it as time went on, going down 7-6, 6-2 to the tournament favourite. After the match, Ruud admitted he was nervous.

With that debut-day tension out of the way, I’m expecting Casper to put in a strong performance tonight, and take out Stefanos Tsitsipas at underdog odds in the Match Winner betting.

Tsitsipas was very flat in his opener, going down in straight sets against Andrey Rublev. While the Russian served well and went for the throat, my overwhelming sense watching that match was that the Greek player’s body language and lack of animation suggested all is not well. As reported at the start of the week, there were injury rumours circulating for Tsitsipas, who pulled out of the Paris Masters with a right arm issue, before this trip to Turin.

Both men still have a chance to keep their qualification hopes alive in this tournament. With the price in mind, and going by what we’ve seen so far, Ruud is the man to bring the greater energy tonight.

Play starts 8pm, UK time. Live on Amazon Prime Video.

Ones to Watch

ATP Finals, Turin

Match Winner:

  • Casper Ruud to beat Stefanos Tsitsipas @ 13/10 (2.3) Bet365, William Hill, 6/5 (2.2) Skybet, BetVictor, Betway, Boylesports, NetBet, 10Bet

Next week it’s the men’s international team event, the Davis Cup.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch