Tennis Betting Advice - November 2021
Monday 1st November 2021
In Ones to Watch today:
The Rolex Paris Masters starts at 10 o’clock this morning. That gives us a small window to make our first moves in the Outright Winner market, before the bookies take it down for the day.
If you miss the 10am start time this morning, head back after the last match tonight, or get in on the action tomorrow before day two begins.
Paris indoors is the 9th and final ATP 1000 Masters event of the season. We’ve witnessed some massive-price finalists and winners here before. I’m prepared to unleash one of my one 2018 monsters from the vault on that front. Paris winner Karen Khachanov was a 40/1 ‘one that got away’ for me. He was in my notes that week. An elephant never forgets.
The Paris Masters roll of honour can be dissected into two clear lists: Novak Djokovic, and the outsiders. Here are the recent finalists, and their pre-tournament prices…
As well as Novak’s formidable French form here, there’s also a very encouraging history of big-price underdogs doing well in Paris at this time of year, with the event coming as it does at the back end of a tough season:
2020
Winner: Daniil Medvedev 7/1
Runner-Up: Alexander Zverev 8/1
2019
Winner: Novak Djokovic 7/4
Runner-Up: Denis Shapovalov 80/1
2018
Winner: Karen Khachanov 40/1
Runner-Up: Novak Djokovic 5/4
2017
Winner: Jack Sock 40/1
Runner-Up: Filip Krajinovic 300/1
2016
Winner: Andy Murray 7/4
Runner-Up: John Isner 80/1
Djokovic also dominated here from 2013 – 2015. Having first lifted the trophy in 2009. No surprises that the world no.1 is the favourite in the betting this week then, at odds of just 7/5 (2.4).
Then come the young guns. Defending champ and world no.2 Medvedev is 4/1 (5.0) across the boards. It’s between Djokovic and Medvedev for who will finish end-of-season no.1.
World no.3 Stefanos Tsitsipas is 9/1 (10.0) in general, with no.4 Zverev in-between, at 11/2 (6.5). After those big Next Gen stars, our recent 20/1+ early-bird pick for the Australian Open 2022, Jannik Sinner, is 14/1. Andrey Rublev is around 20/1. And then it’s 40/1+ the field…
Four of the last five years have produced a 40/1+ finalist. And that’s exactly the kind of price range we target with our Ones to Watch picks…
With the draw and Outright Winner prices in mind, here are the big-odds underdogs on my list:
Hubert Hurkacz and Casper Ruud have been two consistent and successful Ones to Watch players for us this season. Both have recently entered the Top 10, registering career-best rankings of no.10 and no.8, respectively. Odds in the region of 40/1 mark these two talented and professional young men out as two to follow as dark horses in the draw this week.
Also in that 40/1 bracket is recent ATP Masters 1000 winner Cameron Norrie. The Brit took the crown in California at 66/1. Cam is getting a taste for the big-time, and has a knack of going well at a big price. Or to put it another way, maybe he’s being consistently underrated…
Prior to winning big at Indian Wells, Norrie had reached finals this season at odds of 20/1, 33/1, and 50/1. Over the summer, he also reached two further ATP finals on hard courts. Six finals in 2021 makes him one of the form players around right now.
And in the realm of the 100/1 outsiders, these two get the long-shot thumbs-up from me…
Sebastian Korda is another youngster that we’ve been following. As with Hurkacz and Ruud, the level-headed American has a clean game, a great attitude, and the serve and ground strikes to go well in a hard-court battle. He might come a cropper early on against Aslan Karatsev in the 1st round today, but odds of 100/1 compensate that risk for me. Seb definitely has the look of a player who wants a big title win – and believes he can get it.
Reilly Opelka might be the obvious successor to John Isner as America’s giant-server, but Taylor Fritz is also in possession of a big serve – and has been in excellent form this season since returning from injury. Players from the States have sprung surprises indoors here in Paris before, with Jack Sock (40/1 winner) and Isner (80/1 runner-up) both bucking the odds here in recent years.
He’s got a tough-looking draw this week, but it’s hard to argue with Taylor’s form and momentum coming into this one – semi final outdoors at Indian Wells, followed by reaching the final indoors in St Petersburg last week. If his fitness holds up, Fritz can put another run together here.
ATP Paris – Rolex Paris Masters
Outright Winner picks – Each Way:
Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places.
I’ll be back during the week with more from Paris. Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson