Tennis Betting Advice - November 2022
ATP Finals - my scoreboard selection for today...
Monday 14th November 2022
Good morning. The ATP Finals got underway in Turin on Sunday. This annual indoor hard-court event sees the year’s top eight players (barring injuries) compete for the prestigious end-of-season title.
I’ve attended this tournament in the past, but since the ATP took the money from London to Italy, I’m yet to be a courtside visitor…
I shall be watching on Amazon Prime Video though, as Greg Rusedski, Tim Henman & co fumble over their calculators to work out ‘who needs what’ to qualify from the slightly clunky Group stage round-robin format.
In short, the top two men from each group go through to the semi finals.
Yesterday’s play saw the Green Group kicks things off – and both matches produced upsets. With Casper Ruud overturning the odds to beat the recently in-form Felix Auger-Aliassime. And our 100/1 Indian Wells buddy Taylor Fritz beating an under-par Rafael Nadal. As Mark Petchey noted in commentary recently, it would be no surprise at all to see Rafa pull out of the event after one or two matches – which would bring in our 33/1 Paris Masters pal Holger Rune as the first alternate.
ATP Finals – my scoreboard selection for today…
Sunday’s two underdog victories may give encouragement to today’s challengers, although on paper the career head-to-heads are not in their favour…
The Red Group takes centre stage on the Monday schedule, with the singles starting from 1pm UK time. The all-Russian affair between childhood tennis friends Daniil Medvedev and Andrey Rublev sees the younger player as the 12/5 (3.4) outsider. The head-to-head is a dominant 5-1 to Medvedev, who is second favourite in the ATP Finals Outright Winner betting this week, behind Novak Djokovic.
You could point to the fact that Rublev’s one win over Medvedev came in their most recent encounter. But the fact that on court after that match Rublev said beating his slightly-older and (so far) more successful compatriot was like graduating university, it suggests Andrey has a bit of imposter syndrome. Not a great sign at this level.
The evening match gets my main attention today, with Djokovic taking on Stefanos Tsitsipas…
The head-to-head is 9-3 to Djokovic. Both men have won this prestigious end-of-season trophy before. And the most recent meeting will give the Greek camp reason to be optimistic. Tsitsipas took Djokovic to a final-set tiebreak in the Paris Masters semi finals this month, and will feel he should’ve got the job done (Stefanos led 4-3 in the deciding tiebreak, but lost the next four points – and with them, the match).
The upset is 5/2 (3.5) today.
It’s a tough group for Tsitsipas and Rublev, with tournament favourites Djokovic and Medvedev both in the same pack, with just two qualification places up for grabs.
That Tiebreak note from Paris is one I want to pick up on here…
The Rolex Paris Masters is an also an indoor hard-court event. And the reports from day one here in Turin yesterday suggest that these newly-laid indoors courts are playing fast. That was certainly evident in Taylor Fritz’s big-serving performance v Rafa last night.
A fast-playing indoor surface usually plays into the hands of the servers. And if we add in the fact that three of the last four meetings between Tsitsipas and Djokovic (indoor hard, and clay) have seen a tiebreak set. Betting on a close scoreboard result in at least one of the sets could be the way to go today…
Oddschecker is once again being no use at all for us – with the ‘Tiebreak in the Match’ market not even listed. I’ve included the bookies I’ve found for you below, with William Hill a best price of 13/10 (2.3) as I write. The match is at 8pm, so more bookmakers might get involved by then.
Other options to consider here, based around landing a tiebreak (7-6) result – with plenty of firms offering these bets – include: betting on a Tiebreak or ‘Over 12.5 Games’ in the individual sets. Or backing both men to win 7-6 in the Set Correct Score markets. In-play could also be the way to go with those.
Ones to Watch picks:
ATP Finals, 8pm
Live on Amazon Prime Video
Live streaming on bookie sites inc. Bet365, Skybet
Stefanos Tsitsipas v Novak Djokovic
Note: some bookies call this market ‘Tiebreak in the Match.’ Others call it ‘Total Tiebreaks Over 0.5.’
Thanks for your emails last week after the Holger Rune win. And the feedback on the Email v Telegram question has been interesting, too. I’ll report back in full before the 2023 season. But the general consensus from your fellow Ones to Watch members is that email and my longer-format, analysis-based write-ups are popular (thank you). And that some members feel they would benefit from the additional availability of the ‘tips’ being posted on a Telegram group, for speed and convenience.
Email me at: email@example.com
Enjoy the tennis…