Tennis Betting Advice - November 2023
ATP Next Gen Finals Preview: Ones to Watch at 7/1…
Monday 27th November 2023
This week’s ATP Next Gen Finals in Jeddah are something of an outlier. The first fully-sanctioned ATP event to be held in Saudi Arabia, this end-of-season tournament is exclusively for players age 21 years or under…
A whole new ball game…
What’s more, the Next Gen Finals is used as something of an experimental testing ground for rule tweaks, changes, and new scoring systems. All dressed up by the ATP under the banner of ‘innovation’…
We get the same clunky and awkward Group format as the men’s bigtime ATP Finals event. With the top two players from each group going through to the semi finals, after a three-match round-robin sequence.
Here’s the ‘new rules’ update from the official ATP website:
Rising stars…
This event has been held a total of five times before, albeit in Italy. But while we’re making the shift to Saudi Arabia this week, the tournament is still being played indoors and on hard courts.
And in previous instalments, this youth showcase, showpiece competition has done its job in identifying rising stars of the game. With the likes of Stefanos Tsitsipas, Jannik Sinner, and a certain Carlos Alcaraz all lifting the Next Gen trophy in recent years – before all going on to bother the Top 5 of the world rankings.
Less so last year’s Next Gen champion, current world no.133 Brandon Nakashima. Although to give the American his dues, Nakashima has had injuries to contend with – and he’s still only 22 years old. This time last year in Milan, Nakashima went off at 3/1, so his was hardly a shock victory.
Fils the front-runner…
This year’s market leader is an obvious one on paper. With top seed Arthur Fils being the top-ranked of the eight contenders by some distance, and the only one with a senior ATP title to his name thus far – the young Frenchman lifting the silverware on clay in Lyon in May.
Still a teenager, the 19-year-old Fils is currently rocking a career-best ranking of no.36 in the world. Arthur justifiably goes off as the favourite in the Outright Winner betting. He’s 3/1 (4.0) at best with BetVictor, and 11/4 (3.75) and 5/2 (3.5) in general.
Ones to Watch at 7/1…
As you know, we don’t often wade in with backing the favourite. And this week is no exception. Drawn in the opposite Group to Fils (the ‘Red Group’), fellow young Frenchman LUCA VAN ASSCHE is the one that catches my eye at odds of around 7/1…
Ranked no.70 in the world, Van Assche is the 2nd seed here. Regular readers will know I’m a fan of young Luca. Most recently, we backed the talented 19-year-old as a 66/1 outsider at the ATP 250 event held indoors at Metz earlier this month. He went on to give a very decent account of himself, reaching the quarter finals. Adding to semi-final and title-winning appearances indoors in France on the lower-tier ATP Challenger circuit this season.
Granted, on the world map, this week’s King Abdullah Sports City location is a lot different to playing ‘at home’ in France. But indoor courts can serve as something of a leveller in that respect, removing exterior conditions such as wind and heat. All the competitors are also pretty much in the same boat. Barring the Wild Card entrant from Jordan, Abedallah Shelbayh (the 14/1 and 16/1 tournament underdog). Six of the other seven contestants are all from Europe.
Making up the pack, 4th seed ALEX MICHELSON is the sole representative from the USA. The tall American priced at 6/1 in general, and 13/2 and 7/1 with a couple of firms…
Michelson’s serve should win him plenty of free points here. Indeed, the 19-year-old, world no.97 arrives here riding a noteworthy winning streak recorded at indoor hard-court events on the Challenger Tour in the States. Reaching back-to-back finals in Knoxville (won) and Champaign (runner-up) this month. If the 6’4” American can carry that momentum into this week’s big-money event, then he has the potential to go deep here. Michelson made a debut appearance in a full-level ATP final this summer, on grass at ATP Newport, Rhode Island.
Van Assche lacks the height of Michelson, standing 5’10”. But what Luca lacks in reach, he makes up for in court speed, shot accuracy, and tennis IQ. These two are my selections to qualify out of the Red Group, and progress to the semi finals…
The two names I’m putting up as Ones to Watch picks from this week’s eight-man field: Luca Van Assche and Alex Michelson, at 6/1+ each. With a couple of firms going 7/1 or better…
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Ones to Watch picks:
ATP Next Gen Finals – Next Gen ATP Finals presented by NEOM
Outright Winner – Each Way (1/3 odds 1-2 places):
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Play starts from 12 noon Tuesday, UK time. Bookies will take down their tournament Outright Winner markets during the day’s matches.
You can watch the tournament live on Amazon Prime Video.
Enjoy the tennis…
P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at: oliver.upstone@oxonpress.co.uk
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone