Tennis Betting Advice - November 2024

Pure talent at 100/1...

Thursday 14th November 2024

As I write to you, the end-of-season ATP Finals are taking place in Turin. I’m on record as saying I don’t like the round-robin format of this tournament. And having just listened to Tim Henman, Laura Robson & co getting in a right muddle as they try to unpick the myriad qualification permutations of today’s final round of group matches in Italy, my opinion hasn’t changed: tennis tournaments should be knockout events, front to back.

Thoughts here at Ones to Watch HQ are turning to 2025. And I’ve got two 100/1+ shots for us to get in the book right now. Early-bird picks for a couple of next year’s Grand Slams…

With just the 37-year-old Novak Djokovic left standing from the long-dominant men’s Big Four. And - impressive as they are - Grand Slam-winning, Next Gen stars Jannik Sinner (age 23) and Carlos Alcaraz (21) yet to quite command the ‘almost unbeatable’ status that Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, and Djokovic had for so long.

Elsewhere, Ones to Watch alumni from over the years. Such as current world no.2 Alexander Zverev. And fellow Top 10 names Daniil Medvedev, and Casper Ruud, for example. All throw in too many bad days at the office to warrant the often short prices that they go off at in the biggest tournaments.

All of which paves the way for talented, ambitious players sitting further down the rankings ladder to grab the bull by the horns in 2025 - and take advantage of this new and evolving men’s tennis landscape…

If we’re talking talent, then look no further than Denis Shapovalov and Lorenzo Musetti…

Both proponents of tennis as the beautiful game, playing the sport as they do with the flair and grace of the sumptuous one-handed backhand. And both with the pure talent to wipe the court with any opponent, on their day - when fitness, form, confidence & momentum all combine for that magic moment…

We can still regularly get odds of 100/1 for these guys. And those prices make them Ones to Watch picks for 2025. Namely, Shapovalov for January’s Australian Open. And Musetti for the French Open in late May…

Age 25, Denis Shapovalov this month won just the second ATP title of his career. Taking the trophy on indoor hard courts in Belgrade… ending a long wait since his maiden title in Stockholm in 2019. In the years in-between, we’ve seen swearing and racket-throwing controversy, injury, and that most cursed of sporting phrases: wasted potential.

While he might have looked and sounded like a brat on court at times, if you listen to Denis in interviews, you have a young guy who clearly loves the sport, and seems keen to improve and aim high. He’s starting to mature, maybe, and that could make him an interesting and exciting long-shot to follow next season.

The Canadian has shown tantalising glimpses of his big-stage potential before. ‘Shapo’ reached the US Open quarter finals in 2020, the Wimbledon semi finals in 2021, and the Australian Open quarter finals in 2022…

That 2022 Melbourne run saw Shapovalov edged out in a five-set heartbreaker against Nadal - who then went on to take the trophy. Denis left that match genuinely feeling like he should have won it: a hard loss to take. Djokovic stopped him reaching the Wimbledon final in 2021; no shame in that. And the US Open 2020 quarter-final loss was another five-set tussle that slipped away.

Shapovalov is currently ranked no.56 in the world, but he’s been Top 10 before. He has bags and bags of talent. Stay fit and focused, and there is still plenty of time for the great leap forward to come…

The same goes for world no.17, Lorenzo Musetti, who is my 100/1 flyer for Roland Garros 2025…

Italian men’s tennis is doing great at the moment, led by Sinner. With Matteo Berrettini also a Grand Slam finalist. Musetti is the Italian no.2 right now. And the 22-year-old has a real class and quality to his game. I’d say he shows a more professional on-court attitude than Shapo. But still possesses that bit of flair/ showmanship (arrogance, even?) that you need and want from a hungry young talent.

As with Denis, Lorenzo has won two ATP titles so far in his career - but will feel it should be more. This year alone, Musetti has reached three finals and two semi finals on the main tour. Along with a major breakthrough by revealing himself as a surprise package at Wimbledon this summer (semi final)...

And more significantly I feel, although not as much reported - a semi final at the Paris Olympics in August, going on to win the bronze-medal match… an event that was held on the clay courts of Roland Garros, the venue of course for the French Open.

The overall career formbook says clay is Musetti’s most comfortable surface. He’s got 127 match wins on clay, compared to 50 at best elsewhere (outdoor hard courts).

As with Shapovalov, at Grand Slam level, Lorenzo has had a couple of heartbreaking defeats - but each time, left the court having impressed all those who witnessed his best efforts…

The young Italian has made the round of 16 on two occasions at the French Open. The most recent of those runs was in 2023, where he was stopped by a red-hot favourite in Alcaraz.

More noteworthy for me, is Musetti’s Paris performance back in 2021. He had a two-sets-to-nil lead over Djokovic, but was denied a debut place in the French Open quarter finals in cruel circumstances - his body letting him down, having to retire injured in the fifth set. Lorenzo was still a teenager then. He’s older and stronger now - as is Denis…

Let’s take a couple of big 2025 prices for Shapovalov and Musetti today…

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Ones to Watch picks:

See above for full details

Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places)

Australian Open 2025 - Men’s:

  • Denis Shapovalov @ 150/1 Betfred, Star Sports, 125/1 Betway, 100/1 Bet365, Skybet, William Hill, 888 Sport, BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Coral, Boylesports

French Open 2025 - Men’s:

  • Lorenzo Musetti @ 100/1 Bet365, Betfred, William Hill, 888 Sport, BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Coral, Boylesports, Betway, Star Sports

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I’ll be back soon with more Ones to Watch players and pointers for you. I’m working on my 2024/25 notes, and will report back in due course between now and Christmas…

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Oliver Upstone

Ones to Watch