Tennis Betting Advice - October 2018

Paris picks – at 33/1 and 80/1…

Sunday 28th October 2018

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • ATP Paris Masters…
  • One last push for 33/1 Big John…
  • Young Russian outsider at 80/1…

One last push…

The final ATP Masters 1000 event of the season takes place this week, with the Paris Masters getting underway from 10am on Monday…

Last year this tournament turned up a couple of huge prices & surprises – 40/1 Jack Sock won the title and rank outsider Filip Krajinovic was a 300/1 runner-up.

This week we’re sniffing out the upsets with two big-price Each Way picks in the top half of the Paris draw…

The bottom half contains 5/4 (2.25) tournament favourite and multiple-time winner Novak Djokovic along with Roger Federer (7/1). With Kevin Anderson (25/1), Kei Nishikori (20/1) and Marin Cilic (25/1) among the other notable bottom-half seeds.

Rafael Nadal is the 6/1 second-favourite and the biggest name in the top half. But it’s well worth noting that this is one of three (out of the nine) Masters events that Rafa has never won. And he has a habit of fading at the end of the season after a gruelling year-long physical campaign.

Paris picks – at 33/1 and 80/1…

There’s certainly enough potential for upsets to get the Ones to Watch buds tingling and the two top-half names & prices I like most here are John Isner at 33/1 and Daniil Medvedev at a large 80/1

Both these guys are huge servers. Isner stands 6’10”. Medvedev is 6’6”. Fast Paris indoor hard courts will work to their advantage.

The 33-year-old Isner has had a great season, winning his first ever Masters title and reaching a first Grand Slam semi final at Wimbledon. With a good run this week, he’s in with an outside shot of qualifying for the season-ending ATP World Tour Championships in London.

The big American has a good record at this week’s event: semi final 2017, final 2016 (runner-up) and quarter final 2015 – as well as another semi final in 2011. He can often look a bit weary on court between points, but make no mistake, John plays to win and has the power, class and game to bludgeon his way through the draw again here with one last push at the climax of a successful 2018 season.

As an appealing pick at outsider prices, Medvedev is an eye-catcher for me…

The young Russian has an impressive won 18 lost 5 record on indoor hard courts this season – a 78% match win rate which includes a title win in Tokyo. After reaching a first ATP final last season, this year the 22-year-old has kicked on with no fewer than three ATP trophy wins.

Daniil has a tough draw to contend with – but show me an 80/1 shot that doesn’t. Opening opponent Pablo Carreno-Busta has struggled with form & fitness this season. Medvedev beat him indoors in Moscow last season. After that lies last week’s Vienna pick Borna Coric, who had to retire during his quarter final match. Another seed, Dominic Thiem, could follow – but the Austrian isn’t at his best on the faster/ indoor surfaces and has been flailing a bit in recent weeks.

Since a 7-match winning streak on the way to that Tokyo indoors title, Medvedev has only been beaten by Roger Federer (twice), and fellow upcoming Russian, Karen Khachanov. In the last two cases, Medvedev’s conquerors went on to win the respective tournaments.

At the big prices available, Isner and Medvedev are this week’s Ones to Watch in Paris.

ATP Paris – Rolex Paris Masters

Outright Winner:

BET: John Isner @ 33/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 33/1 (34.00) Skybet, Ladbrokes, Coral, Boylesports, 25/1 (26.00) William Hill

BET: Daniil Medvedev @ 80/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 80/1 (81.00) Betfred, 75/1 (76.00) BetVictor, 66/1 (67.00) Boylesports, 50/1 (51.00) Skybet, William Hill

Latest odds here

  • Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places

Play starts on Monday from 10am. Bookies will temporarily suspend their Outright/ Tournament Winner markets during the day’s play. You can watch the Paris Masters live on Sky Sports.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch