Tennis Betting Advice - October 2018

This week’s picks – at 10/1, 25/1 and 100/1… 

Sunday 7th October 2018

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Four tournaments…
  • Ones to Watch this week…
  • 10/1, 25/1 and 100/1 picks…

Four on the board…

There are four tournaments on this week’s schedule. Play gets underway from 5am Monday morning…

One of the recent in-form players on the women’s tour, Kiki Bertens is just 5/2 (3.50) for the WTA Linz title. Contenders such as Dominika Cibulkova (5/1), Julia Goerges (6/1) and Katerina Siniakova (8/1) are all threats here – but I don’t like those single-figure prices.

The WTA Tianjin event looks short on value, too. Our recent 16/1 pick and fast-rising star Aryna Sabalenka goes off as just a 4/1 joint-favourite this time, alongside Karolina Pliskova. Caroline Garcia (5/1) and Elise Mertens (8/1) are next in the list and all have their merits – but again, not for me this time at those prices.

This week’s picks – at 10/1, 25/1 and 100/1…

The WTA Hong Kong draw has a nice open feel to it. US Open champion Naomi Osaka has withdrawn, leaving the highly-ranked but woefully out of form Elina Svitolina and Garbine Muguruza as the 9/2 (5.50) and 11/2 (6.50) favourites respectfully. Followed by Jelena Ostapenko (8/1), who was last seen looking injured and suffering the indignity of a ‘double bagel’ 6-0, 6-0 defeat in Beijing last week.

The player who inflicted that brutal score-line was China’s Qiang Wang, one of the form players of the Asian Swing this late summer & early autumn. In fact, I’d say on recent form Wang should be the favourite for this tournament. Odds of 10/1 appeal nicely.

Wang reached the Beijing semi finals last week, only beaten by eventual champion Caroline Wozniacki. Before that the 26-year-old made the Wuhan semi finals, and before that Wang lifted the trophy in Guangzhou. Another semi final run prior to that (WTA Hiroshima) adds up to a total of 15 wins from 18 matches since the end of the US Open.

Up to a career-best ranking inside the Top 30, if her fitness hold out then Wang can carry her impressive form through to this week. She made the semi finals here in Hong Kong last season and the quarter finals the year before. Right now Wang is undoubtedly playing the best tennis of her career.

WTA Hong Kong – Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open

Outright Winner:

BET: Qiang Wang @ 10/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 10/1 (11.00) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Bet365, Skybet

Latest odds here

  • Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places

The men are in China for a big tournament – the ATP Shanghai Masters

For the last eight years this prestigious trophy has been shared between Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray. Murray has called time on his 2018 season but Djokovic and Federer are here this week, unsurprisingly priced up as the 15/8 (2.88) and 7/2 (4.50) favourites respectively.

I’m willing to look beyond the big names at short prices. With the toils of the season reason enough to cast a little doubt on the legends – especially with hungry, younger players like Dominic Thiem (25/1) and Alex De Minaur (100/1) waiting in the wings…

Thiem has proved his hard court credentials of late, reaching the US Open quarter finals and coming within touching distance of the semis (edged out 7-6 in the fifth set v Rafael Nadal). The 25-year-old Austrian, ranked No.7 in the world, followed that up with a title win in St Petersburg on his most recent outing.

Thiem is in the top half of the draw here, the Federer side. They can’t meet until the semi final stage though, and there’s a lot of tennis to be played before then. Odds of 25/1 this week are bigger than Thiem’s price to win a couple of the Grand Slams next season. He looks value to me.

With prices at the forefront of our thinking, 19-year-old Australian Alex De Minaur is very much One to Watch right now at 100/1. He’s in the bottom half of the Shanghai draw, the Djokovic side – but again he can’t meet the household name until the final four. Names likes Alexander Zverev (12/1) and Marin Cilic (16/1) are potential opponents, but both have an alarming habit of throwing in bad days at the office in recent times, and can be opposed here.

De Minaur is having a breakthrough year, reaching a first ATP final (Sydney, January) and more recently another couple of eye-catching runs on hard courts in Shenzhen (semi final) and Washington (final – runner-up). He’s up to a career-high ranking of No.38 and is expected to go higher and higher from here on.

ATP Shanghai – Rolex Shanghai Masters

Outright Winner:

BET: Dominic Thiem @ 25/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 25/1 (26.00) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, William Hill, Boylesports

BET: Alex De Minaur @ 100/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 100/1 (101.00) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, William Hill, Boylesports

Latest odds here

  • Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places

Play starts on Monday from 5am. Bookies will temporarily suspend their Outright/ Tournament Winner markets during play.

You can watch this week’s tournaments live on Sky Sports for the men, and BT Sport for the women.

I’ll be back in the next few days with more on this week’s matches & markets.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch