Tennis Betting Advice - October 2018

WTA picks – at 22/1 and 25/1…

Sunday 14th October 2018

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Five tournaments…
  • Ones to Watch this week…
  • 22/1 and 25/1 picks…

All indoors…

We had a good return from our Ones to Watch picks last week. In the Match Winner betting, 4/1 Nicolas Jarry beating Marin Cilic. And in the tournament Outright markets our 10/1 pick Qiang Wang finished runner-up in Hong Kong for an Each Way payout.

It’s Sunday night and that means it’s time to get straight into the new week of tennis, with a first look at the Outright Winner prices…

There are five tournaments on the calendar, all European indoor hard-court events.

The Women’s tour has been especially good for us of late, and we’re kicking off this week’s picks with two attractive double-figure prices for the WTA events in Moscow and Luxembourg…

This week’s picks – at 22/1 and 25/1…

Long-time Ones to Watch followers will know I’m a big fan of Daria Kasatkina. She was an 80/1 finalist for us back in March. Over the summer I reckoned a couple of times that she was going to put another good run together. This week’s event in her home country presents a good opportunity to back Daria once again…

This time last year Kasatkina was 10/1 for the WTA Moscow title, and finished as runner-up. She also made the quarter final and semi final in her two previous appearances here.

This week I’m surprised to see the early prices go up as big as 22/1. I was expecting something closer to last year’s price.

Admittedly, Dasha’s form has been a bit off recently. And she’s been racking up an unhealthy number of Double Faults. But she knows how to win matches here in Moscow, and has the all-round skills to wipe the floor with any opponent when on song.

World No.1 Simona Halep is the 9/4 (3.25) favourite and a potential quarter final opponent, but Halep has failed to win her last four matches and was last seen pulling out injured. The upcoming WTA World Tour Finals in Singapore have to be her main priority.

Elsewhere in Kasatkina’s top half of the Moscow draw, Elise Mertens (20/1) was also last seen retiring from a match. And since Kiki Bertens (10/1) won the WTA Seoul title, she’s failed to get past the 3rd Round at any of her next three tournaments.

At the prices, the talented 21-year-old Russian is the pick here…

WTA Moscow – Kremlin Cup

Outright Winner:

BET: Daria Kasatkina @ 22/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 22/1 (23.00) Bet365, NetBet, 10Bet, 20/1 (21.00) Skybet (other bookies to price up tonight or early Monday morning)

Latest odds here

  • Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places

Five of the last six finalists at WTA Luxembourg have been at odds of 20/1 or greater…

This year’s big price to get to the final could well be Margarita Gasparyan. The 24-year-old Russian was a 19/1 winner for us in Tashkent a couple of weeks ago, marking her impressive if low-key comeback after several knee surgeries.

That first trophy win in three years propelled Gasparyan from No.299 in the world up to No.137. She backed that up with a couple of good performances on the indoor hard courts in Linz last week, beating Bertens as an underdog, and only losing to eventual Linz champion Camila Giorgi, two sets to one.

Margarita has got a tough opening match this week against Maria Sakkari, but the big-hitting Greek youngster has been misfiring recently, losing each of her last four matches in straight sets. If Gasparyan gets through that one then odds of 25/1 will start to look very good.

Gasparyan is in the bottom half of the Luxembourg draw and as such can’t meet 7/1 top seed Julia Goerges until the final. Garbine Muguruza is the big name in our player’s section, but as I said last week, the Spaniard hasn’t shown her best form for a while now – the former World No.1 is 12 tournaments and counting without making the finals and is a poor value favourite for this event at just 9/2 (5.50).

One more note on Gasparyan, as I pointed out last time: this is a player with a seriously special one-handed backhand. It’s a thing of beauty. One to Watch for sure.

WTA Luxembourg – Luxembourg Open

Outright Winner:

BET: Margarita Gasparyan @ 25/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 25/1 (26.00) Bet365, NetBet, 10Bet, 22/1 (23.00) Ladbrokes, Coral, William Hill, 20/1 (21.00) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook

Latest odds here

  • Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places

Play starts on Monday from around 10am. Bookies will temporarily suspend their Outright/ Tournament Winner markets during play.

I’ll be back throughout the week with more. There are five tournaments taking place and lots of matches & markets to look at. There’s a good week of indoors play in store.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch