Tennis Betting Advice - October 2019

Ones to Watch in China – at 20/1 and 50/1…

Sunday 6th October 2019

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Shanghai Masters…
  • 20/1 and 50/1 shots this week…
  • Play starts 4am…

Last week we had four players on our list. Caroline Wozniacki was the best performer, reaching the semi finals at WTA Beijing as a 25/1 shot. Wozniacki lost out to Naomi Osaka (9/1), who went on to lift the trophy – beating World No.1 Ashleigh Barty (10/1) in the final.

There are three tournaments on the schedule this week. The men have the ATP Shanghai Masters (hard courts). The women are in action at WTA Linz (indoor hard) and WTA Tianjin (hard).

Let’s see if we can pick out another big one for a deep run…

Ones to Watch this week…

Ten years ago, Nikolay Davydenko won ATP Shanghai in its augural year. Since then, the winners of this prestigious Masters event have all been big names. Novak Djokovic (four titles), Roger Federer (two) and Andy Murray (three).

However, the finals have seen a fair few outsiders turn up at tasty Each Way prices. Last year, Borna Coric was the 100/1 runner-up. In 2016, Roberto Bautista-Agut made the final at that same triple-figure price. And in 2015, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga was a 66/1 finalist.

The top half of the 2019 Shanghai draw is led by last week’s Tokyo winner, Novak Djokovic (13/8 – 2.63 at best). And man-of-the-moment, Daniil Medvedev (13/2 – 7.50). The Russian has made the final in each of his last five tournament appearances, including the US Open.

We’ll look to the bottom half for outsider potential…

Federer is the big name on the sheet there. At 4/1, Roger is the tournament second favourite. The great man doesn’t play too much tennis these days though and is often a little rusty on his return to tour action. If so, David Goffin could be the man to take advantage…

The steady-headed Belgian is making a strong end to the season. Returning from injury earlier this year, since the start of the grass-court campaign Goffin has gone quarter final, final (runner-up), quarter final at Wimbledon. Then, after a slow start to the hard-court run with a couple of early-round defeats, the World No.15 has gone final (runner-up), 4th round at the US Open, 1st round in Metz then semi final last week in Tokyo.

The 28-year-old is no stranger to our Ones to Watch lists. He’s a ‘best of the rest’ kind of guy – never going to be a household name, but a serious Pro and a very, very good tennis player. At big prices, someone like him is worth following in Shanghai. Goffin fits the bill at 50/1 and 40/1. He’s made the quarter finals or better at Masters 1000 events on 11 previous occasions.

Staying with the Chinese tournaments, at WTA Tianjin the Outright Winner betting is headed-up by two of this year’s Ones to Watch regulars – 20-year-old Sofia Kenin and 19-year-old Dayana Yastremska. The problem for me is the prices. Kenin is the favourite at just 7/2 (4.50). Yastremska is 13/2 (7.50) at best. I reckon both those two could do very big things next season and beyond. But right now, in my opinion, they’re not making finals with enough regularity to warrant those single-figure quotes.

One to follow instead is our recent One to Watch pick, Magda Linette at 20/1

The 27-year-old Pole flies under the radar a bit. But she’s a fighter, has some power to her game – and has shown some good form recently. Tianjin is an ‘International’ grade WTA event. Linette has made the final in two of her last three International appearances. Winning the Bronx Open in New York for her maiden tour title. And finishing runner-up in Seoul last month.

Magda’s draw through the first couple of rounds looks very winnable here. Not the most fashionable pick, but the formbook is to be respected and she’s one to follow with odds of 20/1 and 18/1 available.

Ones to Watch this week:

  • David Goffin is 50/1 Each Way with Skybet, NetBet, 10Bet, 40/1 Bet365, Ladbrokes, Coral, William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Boylesports

Latest ATP Shanghai odds here

  • Magda Linette is 20/1 Each Way with Bet365, Boylesports, 18/1 Ladbrokes, Coral, William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, NetBet, 10Bet

Latest WTA Tianjin odds here

Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places.

Monday’s play starts from 4.00am (UK time) in Tianjin, and 5.30am in Shanghai. Bookies suspend their Outright Winner markets during the day’s matches.

I’ll be back in the week. As I write, the WTA Linz markets aren’t fully up yet. There isn’t much 1st round action there on Monday. We may look at that tournament in the next couple of days.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch