Tennis Betting Advice - October 2020

Two quarter-final chances today… 

Friday 30th October 2020

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Quarter Finals…
  • ATP Astana…
  • ATP Vienna…

The numbers game…

When the season ends, I’ll be doing my annual Ones to Watch round-up. Going back over our past year of Outright Winner betting, and making some notes for 2021.

I’ve updated my figures this week. And for 2020 to date, as of last week, the numbers show a healthy rate of Ones to Watch picks getting to the latter stages of tournaments:

Quarter Finals & beyond: 42% of picks

Semi Finals & beyond: 21%

Finals: 11%

And when you get to the latter stage of a tournament, at the prices we go for, that means you’re in with a shout of something exciting happening…

Long-time member Phil G put it well this week:

“When a player gets to the quarter finals [and loses], I may have lost out financially, but you’ve given me a whole load of entertainment for that money – I enjoy the excitement of thinking that I could win big, and enjoy watching the matches in a way that I never would if I didn’t have a financial interest. So I get far more than just winners from your service: I get huge enjoyment and entertainment.”

Two quarter-final chances today…

It's quarter finals day again this week. We’ve got one man running for us in each of the ATP events taking place.

At Astana in Kazakhstan, we have 21-year-old Emil Ruusuvuori in the quarter finals. Backed at 12/1 – 9/1, the Finnish youngster is now 5/1 for the title.

As we noted on Tuesday, Ruusuvuori is looking to reach a senior ATP Tour final for the first time. If he doesn’t get there this week, I reckon it won’t be long until we see him with more chances like this.

In today’s match betting, the bookies have our man as a 1/2 (1.5) favourite to reach the semis. It’s a tough ask, though. Top seed, Benoit Paire, was as unreliable as ever in the last round – blowing a set & a break lead against Mikhail Kukushkin. The Kazakh player came back to win, and a home representative at a tournament like this is always going to be a tough nut to crack. Kukushkin is the 13/8 (2.63) underdog against Ruusuvuori today.

At the bigger event in Vienna, we’ve got a proper big-price Ones to Watch bet on the go…

Backed at 100/1, 80/1 and 66/1 at the start of the week, Kevin Anderson has defied the odds to reach the quarter finals. On the comeback from injury, this is the first time in over a year that the 34-year-old has got to this stage of a tournament. That means this is a successful week for big Kev, whatever happens this afternoon.

And with Anderson having saved three match points in the 1st round, it feels like we’re on a bit of a free roll with the South African this week, at massive odds.

Daniil Medvedev is the younger, fitter, faster, Top 10 opponent today. The 24-year-old Russian is heavy odds-on for the win, at 1/5 (1.2) and shorter.

Medvedev is expected to win. His opponent is 4/1 (5.0). But that was also the case in St Petersburg the other day, when Reilly Opelka knocked out the Russian for us.

If Anderson continues to serve well, plays aggressive, and world no.6 Medvedev doesn’t have one of his better days, then our outsider has a chance. And at the odds we’ve taken for the world no.111, that’s all we can ask for…

In this morning’s revised Outright Winner market for ATP Vienna, Anderson is down to 28/1 and 25/1, with the bookies now only betting 1/3rd the odds Each Way, across the board. We’re on him at more than double those prices, and at the better place terms of 1/2 the odds, too.

Our quarter final matches start from 12 noon UK time in Astana, and 1pm in Vienna.

I’ll be back on Sunday night with a first look at next week’s Paris Masters, providing the event goes ahead, with France now entering a national lockdown. I’ll keep you posted.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch