Tennis Betting Advice - October 2020

French Open: Day 15 – match picks for Djokovic v Nadal…

Sunday 11th October 2020

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • French Open – Day 15…
  • Men’s Final…
  • Match picks for Djokovic v Nadal…

Welcome to Day 15 of the French Open…

Patterns in time…

If you’re a long-time Ones to Watch follower, then you may recall 100/1 shot Marion Bartoli winning Wimbledon back in 2013…

That year, the Frenchwoman stormed through the draw to win a first Grand Slam trophy, winning all seven matches without dropping a set.

Fast-forward to 2020 and yesterday’s French Open final. Bartoli, now retired and pregnant, and on media duties, was on court after the match to interview Iga Swiatek.

The teenager also having just won a first Grand Slam title, sweeping through the draw without losing a single set, and landing top prices of 100/1.

Sofia Kenin finished a gallant runner-up. When backing Kenin in week one, we discussed her ‘sophomore slump’ – experiencing a dip in form after making her name at the Australian Open…

Kenin’s pattern ended up somewhat mirroring that of fellow American, Sloane Stephens. Who in 2017/18, won a first Major, then dropped off alarmingly for six months or so, before bouncing back at a big price to reach the final at Roland Garros.

The difference between those two is that I expect Kenin to continue to challenge for Grand Slam honours, and be a consistent Top 10 player for a long time to come.

Will Swiatek suffer a similar slump at the start of next season?

Untold fame and adulation will now arrive for the 19-year-old. She seems to have a good team around her and appears to be very grounded. But the familiar post-first-Grand-Slam slide. Coupled with the bookies reacting to this French Open win by taking a scythe to the 2021 Slam prices. Is certainly going to be make us think twice before taking odds as short as 12/1 for Iga to back this up at the very next Major in Australia next January.

The Pole is now similar 12/1 odds for Wimbledon, and the US Open next year, too. I wouldn’t be surprised to see those prices drift back out a little between now and then.

The big thing for us was to get on Swiatek before she hit the big-time. And we did that in the best way possible.

The outsider approach…

Swiatek and Kenin were proper Ones to Watch picks.

Before the French Open, Kenin played just one build-up match on clay, at WTA Rome last month – and lost it by the worst possible margin, 6-0, 6-0. Swiatek was also subjected to a straight-sets defeat in Rome, going out in the 1st round.

The Polish newcomer has been a recurring teenage pick for us this year, flagged up pre-season in our OTW 2020 report. Then backed as an early-bird bet for Paris in July. And also given the nod on day one of the tournament, having been handed a tough drawn against the 2019 runner-up Marketa Vondrousova in the 1st round (who we also backed). With no.1 seed, former French Open champion, and 2020 outright favourite, Simona Halep, in the 4th round.

Across her seven consecutive 2-0 wins this fortnight, Iga beat no fewer than four former Grand Slam finalists – Vondrousova, Eugenie Bouchard, Halep, and then Kenin. Before Roland Garros, Swiatek had never lifted a senior trophy on tour. Repeating the trick of 100/1 youngster Jelena Ostapenko in 2017.

Djokovic v Nadal…

While the women’s French Open saw a 19-year-old beat a 21-year-old in the final, at big odds. The men’s championship match sees the two vastly experienced 30-plus names and pre-tournament favourites facing off once again…

Rafael Nadal was 11/10 (2.1) on day one. Going into this afternoon’s match, the 12-time Roland Garros champion is now 8/11 (1.73) to make it number 13.

Novak Djokovic started the fortnight as the 21/10 (3.1) second favourite. The world no.1’s progress through the draw has been less serene than Rafa’s, dropping sets in the quarter finals and semi finals. Novak is 5/4 (2.25) today.

I could take up the whole of today’s email with a review of the career head-to-head for these two…

In short, the epic tally stands at 29-26 to Djokovic. From their six most recent matches, it’s 3-3. On clay, it’s 17-7 to Nadal. Although in recent years, the Serb has improved his record against the Clay Court King – with Djokovic winning three of their last six encounters on the red dirt.

Here at the French Open, the record is a commanding 6-1 to Rafa. I’m with Rafa today.

Mr Reliable…

I also like Nadal to serve Under 2.5 Double Faults.

Yesterday’s Kenin Most Aces pick in the women’s final missed out by one (1-1 aces tally). Our match picks have made a modest profit for the tournament overall (15% ROI to level stakes). The real deal is our Outright Winner book of course, which is very rosy indeed, with Swiatek and Kenin (Each Way) both delivering at substantial odds.

Back to today’s final, and Rafa’s double fault figures show just 2 in total across the last four rounds. That’s an average of 0.5 per match in week two of the tournament, and 0.17 per set.

It’s not an exact science, of course, but those recent stats suggest that Rafa could serve for the full five sets today, and still come in Under the 2.5 line that the bookies have set for him.

In his four most recent (best of three sets) matches v Djokovic, Nadal’s double fault figures have been: 0, 2, 1, 1. In their last clash at the French Open, the Spaniard served 2 doubles.

I’m going for Rafa to continue his reliable form – both in terms of winning the final, and keeping the double faults to a minimum.

Ones to Watch:

Novak Djokovic v Rafael Nadal

  • Match Winner: Nadal to beat Djokovic is 8/11 (1.73) with Bet365, Boylesports, Skybet, NetBet, 10Bet, 7/10 (1.7) and 4/6 (1.67) in general
  • Rafael Nadal Total Double Faults: Under 2.5 is 4/5 (1.8) with William Hill, 8/11 (1.73) Bet365, VBet, 4/6 (1.67) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 13/20 (1.65) Sportingbet, Bwin (Nadal is called ‘Player B’ in some of those markets)

Play starts 2pm.

You can watch live on the Eurosport channels, website & app. On selected bookie websites with a funded account. And on ITV4.

I’ll be back tonight with our Sunday Night Club, taking a first look at the Outright Winner prices for next week’s three ATP tournaments in Cologne, Sardinia and St Petersburg.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch