Tennis Betting Advice - October 2020
Sunday Night Club – Ones to Watch at 18/1 and 33/1…
Sunday 11th October 2020
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Rafa wins again…
It’s always good to close out a tournament with a win. Rafael Nadal rounded off a fantastic French Open for us this afternoon, landing both our Match Winner and Under 2.5 Double Faults picks.
Rafa bagged a stunning 13th career Roland Garros title, overwhelming Novak Djokovic in straight sets, 6-0, 6-2, 7-5.
For our stats bet, Nadal’s double faults total for the match was just the one, landing the Under 2.5 selection if you followed that one.
Of course, those 8/11 and 4/5 odds weren’t anywhere near the region of the prices we go for with our bread & butter business in the Outright Winner markets…
Who knows when we’ll next be on the 100/1 train. You and I will be certainly be keeping abreast of the players, prices and potential opportunities, that’s for sure.
Thanks again for all your kind words regarding the French Open. Finding out who you backed, what odds you got, and how much you won is hands-down my favourite part of the job…
I’m not an Air B&B… but reviews and positive comments are very welcome…
My Publisher will certainly be grateful, as will I. If you have the urge or inclination to write a few lines on your experience of the Ones to Watch service, and the French Open fortnight just gone, email me on: tom.wilson@oxonpress.co.uk. Thank You : )
Ones to Watch at 18/1 and 33/1…
It’s been a busy couple of weeks, and you’ve already heard from me once today (I wouldn’t want to outstay my welcome). I’ll keep things short and simple this evening…
Our self-styled Sunday Night Club aims to swoop on the early prices in the Outright Winner markets for the week’s upcoming tournaments. Play starts Monday morning.
There are three events on the calendar this week. ATP Cologne and ATP St Petersburg, both on (indoor) hard courts. And ATP Sardinia on clay. Cologne and Sardinia are both new additions added to the 2020 schedule, post-lockdown.
Before the bookies had their markets up, I had the following players in my notes…
For St Petersburg, the Russian men to do well in Russia – Daniil Medvedev and Andrey Rublev, and the huge-serving American, Reilly Opelka. For Sardinia, the fast-improving Casper Ruud, the experienced clay-courter Dusan Lajovic, and teenager Lorenzo Musetti.
As I’ve said before, price is king. The fledging prices are up, and Medvedev (11/4), Rublev (7/1), Ruud (3/1), and Lajovic (8/1) are all too short for my liking. The week after the French Open, we don’t want to be taking single-figure quotes. In fact, we hardly ever deal in those kinds of tournament prices.
Two at the prices…
That leaves the other names in the notebook, Opelka and Musetti, and those two young men both appeal at more attractive odds…
As with French Open finalists Iga Swiatek and Sofia Kenin, the 23-year-old Opelka appeared on our pre-season Ones to Watch in 2020 list.
The 6’11” massive server has a good groundstrokes game, too, and has already lifted one ATP title in this shortened season.
At ATP and lower-tier ITF level combined, Reilly has won a total of six Singles trophies so far, and four of them have come at indoor hard court venues. The St Petersburg courts could suit his game well. Opelka’s career match win-loss record indoors is 31-12 (72%). Odds of 20/1+ appeal.
Over on the island of Sardinia, Italian teenager Lorenzo Musetti can continue to make his name in 2020…
The 18-year-old made not one but two statement wins in Rome last month, beating both Stan Wawrinka and then Kei Nishikori on the clay. Fitness problems for those two established names aside, Musetti’s performances were very stylish and accomplished. That week, pundits were comparing him to Nadal AND Roger Federer. High praise indeed.
As we’ve seen in the last few days alone, teenagers on the up should be backed at nice prices…
Musetti is 18/1 – 14/1 as I write, with more firms still to price up before play starts on Monday morning. The youngster has a tough 1st round match on Monday against clay-court veteran Pablo Cuevas. If the teenager can get past the old pro, then anything could happen for him this week.
After Rome and during the French Open, Lorenzo won a first ATP Challenger level title of his career, taking the honours in Forli, Italy. After two ITF Futures level wins on clay last year, that takes Musetti’s trophy haul to three, all on clay. He’s in form – and on the rise.
Ones to Watch:
Outright Winner picks – Each Way
Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places.
Other bookies to look for with Outright Winner prices between now and the start of play on Monday include Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, and Boylesports.
I’ll be in touch in the week with more from this week’s tournaments in Cologne, Sardinia and St Petersburg – and especially so if any more prices catch the eye.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson