Tennis Betting Advice - October 2020
Sunday Night Club – One to Watch at 80/1…
Sunday 25th October 2020
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Name-on-the-trophy moments…
Tennis is a game of small margins. The scoring system is brilliantly designed: a match is truly never over until it’s over.
We’ve witnessed plenty of examples of that over the past week…
In the Czech Republic, Aryna Sabalenka lifted the trophy at WTA Ostava. But what a rollercoaster of a tournament she had…
In her opening match, Sabalenka came from a set down against teenager Coco Gauff, clawing back a 5-2, double-break deficit in the final set, to eventually win 1-6, 7-5, 7-6.
Then, in the quarter finals, the Belarusian pulled off one of the comebacks of the year. Turning around a derelict-looking 0-6, 0-4 scoreboard against Sara Sorribes Tormo – and ending up winning the match 0-6, 6-4, 6-0.
The rest, as they say, is history. Sabalenka went on the reach the final, and win it.
Match-point drama…
Elsewhere at that Ostrava event, our 25/1 pick Ekaterina Alexandrova went out in the very 1st round – but had two match points to beat Anett Kontaveit, and blew a 5-2 lead in the deciding set.
We managed to get two players into semi finals last week, which was good going. Jennifer Brady lost to the aforementioned Sabalenka in the Ostrava semis…
And in the men’s event at ATP Antwerp, our 22/1 underdog selection Dan Evans had a total of four match points in his semi final defeat against Ugo Humbert. Meaning we were just one point away (four times) from an Each Way payout.
As is the way, it seems, Humbert of course then went on to win the final and lift the Antwerp trophy.
Swings & roundabouts is the phrase, though…
Other times these match-point-saving turnarounds will go our way. Indeed, in the quarter finals, Evans himself saved a match point against Karen Khachanov.
As ever, the positive to takeaway is that we’re continuing to get a very healthy number of players into quarter-final & semi-final positions and beyond, at attractive prices.
And as we saw at the French Open just the other week, with Iga Swiatek landing odds as high as 100/1, when we get the Big One, it’s smiles all round.
One to Watch this week at 80/1…
The ATP Tour still has plenty of activity lined up for us between now and the end of the season. Two big tournaments are on the horizon, the ATP 1000 Paris Masters, and the prestigious ATP Finals in London.
Before those though, we have two events to entertain us this coming week, both played indoors on hard courts…
ATP Vienna is a 500-grade tournament, and has attracted some big names and Top 10 players.
Bet365 were one of the first firms up with their Outright Winner prices. World no.1 Novak Djokovic is the 21/20 (2.05) favourite. Austrian world no.3 and reigning Vienna champion Dominic Thiem is 5/1.
Other Top 10 contenders in this high-quality field include Stefanos Tsitsipas (11/1), Daniil Medvedev (8/1), Andrey Rublev (12/1), and 2019 Vienna runner-up Diego Schwartzman (33/1).
Beware the Each Way Scrooges…
With Mr Djokovic top of the pile here, it’s disappointing (but not surprising) to see that some bookies, including William Hill, Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook, are only going 1/3rd the odds Each Way for reaching the final.
The industry standard is 1/2 odds for 1-2 places. Fair play to Bet365, Ladbrokes & Coral, Skybet, BetVictor, Betfred, Betway, NetBet & 10Bet for playing by the normal Each Way rules.
Looking at the all-important draw, the men that could come through Djokovic’s half, if the Serbian falters at any stage between the 1st round and the semis – or they manage to beat Novak themselves – include Schwartzman, and Denis Shapovalov (33/1). Both of whom are both chasing rankings points to make it the season-ending ATP Finals next month. Tsitsipas is also in this half of the draw.
Consulting the opposite side of the Vienna drawsheet, home favourite Dominic Thiem could need to get past the likes of Stan Wawrinka (33/1), Rublev, and Ones to Watch in 2020 name Jannik Sinner (20/1), to name just three.
Big prices for Big Kev…
On the sniff for a potential Each Way contender to come through, Kevin Anderson has a real wildcard feel about him here. It’s been a tough road back from injury for our former Wimbledon finalist. But big Kev still has a big serve, and indoor hard courts are usually a good fit for a player with that kind of weapon…
Add in the end-of-season, roll-of-the-dice feel that this tournament might have about it for the South African – this will be just his fifth ATP Tour appearance this season. And the fact that Kevin won here in Vienna as recently as 2018, and also reached the semi finals in years gone by, too. And the 34-year-old, 6’8” Anderson could prove to be a dark horse here at odds of 100/1, 80/1 and 66/1.
There’s always the danger of fitness issues coming to fore again, of course. But at these odds, we can accept that. And with a potential route through the draw that avoids Djokovic, and has some winnable-looking early rounds (the ever-unreliable Gael Monfils, for example) – Anderson has a few quiet credentials as an outsider here.
Ones to Watch:
Outright Winner pick – Each Way
ATP Vienna – Erste Bank Open
Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places (with the quoted bookies).
Anderson plays in the ATP Vienna 1st round on Monday afternoon. Play starts from 1pm UK time.
P.S
This week’s other tournament is a new one on the rearranged 2020 calendar. ATP Astana in Kazakhstan, is a smaller, 250-grade event. It could be decent territory for us. Only a few prices are up as I write this Sunday evening, with qualification matches still to be completed, and the subsequent gaps in the main draw still to be filled in. The bookies are going around 10/1+ the field. We may get a name or two in the book over the next couple of days. I’ll keep you posted.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson