Tennis Betting Advice - October 2020

Sunday Night Club – Indoor pick at 25/1…

Sunday 18th October 2020

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • WTA Ostrava…
  • Hard-court form…
  • Ones to Watch this week…

A decent showing from our two Ones to Watch players last week – although no big payout this time.

In St Petersburg, Reilly Opelka made a credible run to the quarter finals as a 25/1 outsider, including a big win over reigning champion Daniil Medvedev.

And in Sardinia, teenager Lorenzo Musetti (18/1) was very impressive in reaching a first ATP semi final – before his body let him down, retiring in that match with an arm injury, having made a bright start by winning the first set. The 18-year-old will be a regular for us next season, I’m sure. He says he fancies his chances on all surfaces – not just the clay.

The rearranged autumn tours roll on this coming week, with three more indoor hard-court tournaments…

Ones to Watch in Ostrava this week…

The women don’t have many events left on the 2020 calendar. The newly-formed WTA Ostrava tournament has been given the go-ahead in the Czech Republic though, under tight Covid-19 restrictions. And being a Premier-grade WTA event, the calibre of the field is high here.

The Ostava line-up includes big names Elina Svitolina (no.1 seed), Czech star Karolina Pliskova (2nd seed), Aryna Sabalenka as no.3 seed, and US Open runner-up Victoria Azarenka.

It’s no surprise that those four are all single-figure prices in the early Outright Winner quotes. In-form 2020 player Elena Rybakina is also around the 7/1 mark. And it should also come as no surprise that I’ll be swerving the famous names and short prices…

Two women worthy of following here, at the prices, in my opinion:

Put simply, if Jennifer Brady plays the kind of hard-court tennis that she played in North America this summer, then she can beat anyone in this field.

An off-season trip to Germany with her coach really paid dividends, with the former US college player making the big leap forward on the pro tour, winning a first WTA title at Lexington, before going on to reach the US Open semi finals.

Add in a quarter final in Brisbane and a semi final in Dubai on hard courts before lockdown, and Brady’s hard-court credentials are superb.

Some bookies are going 9/1 this evening. Take the 16/1, 14/1 and 12/1 elsewhere if you can get it.

And if it’s credentials on the playing surface that we’re looking for, then look no further than Ekaterina Alexandrova…

The Russian was a 16/1 winner for us on hard courts in Shenzhen at the start of the year. She also made the semi finals indoors in St Petersburg in February. And indoor hard-court form is Alexandrova’s standout statistic…

The 25-year-old – in possession of a dangerous serve, and the classic flat-hitting Russian forehand – is at her best on fast hard courts and/ or indoors. All seven of Alexandrova’s career titles at all levels have come on hard courts, with five of them achieved at indoor events.

Odds of 28/1 and 25/1 here are inflated due to a tough 1st round draw against another Ones to Watch regular, Anett Kontaveit. The Estonian is respected, and has a career match-win loss record indoors of 54-26 (68%). In comparison, the Russian’s record is 131-49, for an eye-catching 73% win-rate indoors.

With Alexandrova having played a 100 more career matches indoors than an opponent only less than a year younger than her, the Russian stands out for a run at 20/1+, compared to odds of 12/1 for Kontaveit.

  • With Kontaveit v Alexandrova the first match scheduled in Ostrava for Monday morning (11am UK time), we’re using our Sunday night slot to get our women’s picks in the book
  • The men’s field in Cologne and Antwerp are still subject to change, with the Outright Winner markets still appearing as I write. There aren’t many matches of note on the Monday schedule. We may well make a move in those ATP tournaments ready for start of play Tuesday – I’ll email you Tuesday AM, if not before

Ones to Watch:

Outright Winner picks – Each Way

WTA Ostrava:

  • Jennifer Brady is 16/1 with Skybet, 14/1 William Hill, 12/1 Bet365
  • Ekaterina Alexandrova is 28/1 with Bet365, 25/1 Ladbrokes, Coral, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 22/1 Skybet, William Hill

Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places.

I’ll be back early in the week with more on this week’s tournaments.

Remember if you want or need to get in touch, I’m on:

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch