Tennis Betting Advice - October 2020
Sunday Night Club – Indoor pick at 25/1…
Sunday 18th October 2020
In your Ones to Watch email today:
A decent showing from our two Ones to Watch players last week – although no big payout this time.
In St Petersburg, Reilly Opelka made a credible run to the quarter finals as a 25/1 outsider, including a big win over reigning champion Daniil Medvedev.
And in Sardinia, teenager Lorenzo Musetti (18/1) was very impressive in reaching a first ATP semi final – before his body let him down, retiring in that match with an arm injury, having made a bright start by winning the first set. The 18-year-old will be a regular for us next season, I’m sure. He says he fancies his chances on all surfaces – not just the clay.
The rearranged autumn tours roll on this coming week, with three more indoor hard-court tournaments…
Ones to Watch in Ostrava this week…
The women don’t have many events left on the 2020 calendar. The newly-formed WTA Ostrava tournament has been given the go-ahead in the Czech Republic though, under tight Covid-19 restrictions. And being a Premier-grade WTA event, the calibre of the field is high here.
The Ostava line-up includes big names Elina Svitolina (no.1 seed), Czech star Karolina Pliskova (2nd seed), Aryna Sabalenka as no.3 seed, and US Open runner-up Victoria Azarenka.
It’s no surprise that those four are all single-figure prices in the early Outright Winner quotes. In-form 2020 player Elena Rybakina is also around the 7/1 mark. And it should also come as no surprise that I’ll be swerving the famous names and short prices…
Two women worthy of following here, at the prices, in my opinion:
Put simply, if Jennifer Brady plays the kind of hard-court tennis that she played in North America this summer, then she can beat anyone in this field.
An off-season trip to Germany with her coach really paid dividends, with the former US college player making the big leap forward on the pro tour, winning a first WTA title at Lexington, before going on to reach the US Open semi finals.
Add in a quarter final in Brisbane and a semi final in Dubai on hard courts before lockdown, and Brady’s hard-court credentials are superb.
Some bookies are going 9/1 this evening. Take the 16/1, 14/1 and 12/1 elsewhere if you can get it.
And if it’s credentials on the playing surface that we’re looking for, then look no further than Ekaterina Alexandrova…
The Russian was a 16/1 winner for us on hard courts in Shenzhen at the start of the year. She also made the semi finals indoors in St Petersburg in February. And indoor hard-court form is Alexandrova’s standout statistic…
The 25-year-old – in possession of a dangerous serve, and the classic flat-hitting Russian forehand – is at her best on fast hard courts and/ or indoors. All seven of Alexandrova’s career titles at all levels have come on hard courts, with five of them achieved at indoor events.
Odds of 28/1 and 25/1 here are inflated due to a tough 1st round draw against another Ones to Watch regular, Anett Kontaveit. The Estonian is respected, and has a career match-win loss record indoors of 54-26 (68%). In comparison, the Russian’s record is 131-49, for an eye-catching 73% win-rate indoors.
With Alexandrova having played a 100 more career matches indoors than an opponent only less than a year younger than her, the Russian stands out for a run at 20/1+, compared to odds of 12/1 for Kontaveit.
Ones to Watch:
Outright Winner picks – Each Way
Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places.
I’ll be back early in the week with more on this week’s tournaments.
Remember if you want or need to get in touch, I’m on: firstname.lastname@example.org
Enjoy the tennis…