Tennis Betting Advice - October 2021

One to Watch in Moscow at 12/1...

Monday 18th October 2021

In Ones to Watch today:

  • Indian Wells biggies…
  • Back to Europe this week…
  • Bublik at 12/1…

Indian Wells 2021 demonstrated once again how wide-open the tours are proving at the moment. Both in the women’s, and in the men’s when the big boys Djokovic, Federer & Nadal aren’t playing…

(Pre-tournament prices in brackets)

Paula Badosa (40/1) beat Victoria Azarenka (33/1)

Cameron Norrie (66/1) beat Nikoloz Basilashvili (100/1)

Four very chunky prices there.

Last week was the first time in ATP Masters history that all four semi-finalists had been ranked outside the world’s Top 25.

Across the men’s & women’s events, three of the four finalists – including both champions, Norrie & Badosa – had never previously won a single match at Indian Wells.

The last two men’s winners at Indian Wells have now gone off at 66/1 and 80/1. While the last five women’s champions in the Californian desert have been at 40/1, 100/1, 125/1, and 100/1.

Back to Europe this week…

The tours move from USA to Europe this week, with four hard-court tournaments starting today:

ATP 250 Moscow Kremlin Cup (indoors)
ATP 250 Antwerp European Open (indoors)

WTA 500 Moscow Kremlin Cup (indoors)
WTA 250 Tenerife Tenerife Ladies Open

The WTA events in Moscow and Tenerife both start this morning (9am & 10am). We may get involved in those in the next couple of days, depending on the markets and prices.

As I write this morning, we have time to get on in the men’s day-one markets, before play begins…

ATP Moscow – 12 noon

ATP Antwerp – 3.30pm – I’ll be back around lunchtime with my first thoughts on that one

Bublik at 12/1…

It’s not a steadfast rule, but some events lend themselves to the ‘home player’ theory. For example, French players at indoors tournaments on the ATP Tour. And the same can be said for backing Russians to do well in Russia…

The last two ATP Moscow titles have gone to Russian players. Andrey Rublev at 12/1 the last time this tournament was held, in 2019. And Karen Khachanov at 5/1 in 2018.

This week, Rublev is around 2/1 (3.0) or shorter, while Khachanov is 15/2 (8.5).

An interesting outsider is Adrian Mannarino. The 33-year-old Frenchman has been runner-up here in those last two renewals. In 2019 he went off at 25/1, and in 2018 he was 28/1…

This week, Mannarino is 66/1. That price down is largely down to two factors. A drop-off in form (lost four of his last five matches on tour). And the fact that, should he win his 1st round match, Adrian will play the seeded Rublev in round two. In the 2019 final, the Russian beat the Frenchman, 6-4, 6-0. I’m happy to swerve this particular underdog this time.

In the opposite side of the draw, and at bigger prices than Rublev & Khachanov, Alexander Bublik at 12/1 could be the one to follow.

The Russian-born Kazakhstan representative reached the semi finals in his last indoor tournament (in Kazakhstan last month). He’s a two-time quarter-finalist here in Moscow. And in general, his big serve and ability to create power suits indoor hard-court conditions.

Age 24, Bublik is still searching his first ATP title. He came closest in February this year, runner-up in Singapore – once again on indoor hard courts. He should be looking at this ATP 250 trophy as one that he can win…

  • Note: I’ll be back again at lunchtime today – by 1pm – with my ATP Antwerp preview 

Ones to Watch

Outright Winner – Each Way

ATP Moscow – Kremlin Cup

  • Alexander Bublik @ 12/1 BetVictor, Unibet, 11/1 Bet365, Betway, 10/1 William Hill

Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places.

See you again shortly, as we move from Moscow to Antwerp…

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch