Tennis Betting Advice - October 2022

Bagels for Borg? One to watch in Sweden this evening…

Tuesday 18th October 2022

It must be tough living in the shadow of a legend, so I don’t want to be too harsh on Leo Borg today. The fact is though, the 19-year-old Swede is simply not as good a player as his famous dad…

By the time he was his son Leo’s age, Bjorn Borg had already won the French Open as a teenager, and was well on his way to becoming an all-time great.

As I say, it’s unfair to make direct comparisons like that. A famous family line doesn’t necessarily mean you’re on a conveyor belt to sporting success.

‘Another’ Wildcard for Leo…

Leo Borg has been given a Wildcard entry into this week’s ATP 250 event in Stockholm. Which makes complete sense, considering – if nothing else – that he’s a Swedish teenager looking to climb the rankings. Wimbledon and many other tournaments all over the world regularly give out Wildcards to home players. Personally, I like the US system where mini-tournaments are held to win your Wildcard place at a Grand Slam. But that’s beside the point today.

Leo has had a few negative comments come his way, with the insinuation being I guess that his famous surname is seeing him get more than his fair share of ‘free passes’ into tournament main draws. A case backed up by the fact that, so far in his young career, the teenager has been awarded multiple Wildcards, and failed to take advantage of any of them.

Last year, Leo was granted four Wildcards into lower-tier ATP Challenger events, and was beaten in the 1st round each time. Along with a 1st round exit here in Sweden on the main tour, at ATP Stockholm.

Elsewhere in his native Sweden, at ATP Bastad 2021, young Leo fell in the very 1st round of Qualifying. And the same happened there this year, too.

Borg Junior was last seen earlier this month, competing on the small stage of the ITF circuit – and losing to a player ranked outside the world’s Top 500. Leo himself is currently at no.577, which is actually the highest he’s been.

Borg v Paul today…

By a quirk of the tournament draw, Leo Borg’s 1st round match today in Stockholm is a re-match of twelve months ago, against world no.31, Tommy Paul. Last November, Paul beat Borg 6-4, 6-2, and then went all the way that week, lifting his maiden ATP title.

Given the mismatch on paper here, you can see why the 25-year-old American is priced as an overwhelming favourite today. Paul is no better than 1/50 (1.02). Most firms are the shortest price possible for them to offer, 1/100 (1.01). With some not even giving ‘Paul to win’ as a betting option.

In comparison, Borg is 33/1 with Skybet, and 28/1 with Bet365. Sporting Index are an industry-best 40/1 – a price which has been backed down from 50/1 this morning. As I write, Leo is around 34.0 on Betfair. Not that I’m advocating a bet on the underdog here…

Outsiders are usually our main area of business, of course. But not when it’s so hard to make a case for the upset. If anything, I think the home-event pressure will only make things tough for the younger and considerably less-experienced player here…

The Stockholm organisers have given this match top billing today, with Borg v Paul scheduled last up on the Tuesday order of play. Again, you can’t blame the tournament for wanting to make the most of the Borg connection. But it’s not an ideal situation for a young player who has so far failed to shine in such circumstances.

In terms of the betting markets, my angle is to try and snag a biggish price for Tommy to dish out a very convincing scoreboard result here. Paul handed out a 6-0 ‘bagel’ set in his 1st round victory at ATP Gijon last week. And if he keeps his foot on the gas this evening, then the American could run away with this…

If you haven’t already guessed where I’m going with this, the market I’m after is the Set Correct Score, with Paul 6-0 the score-line to go after…

The 1st Set Score market is the most common, pre-match. With Paul 6-0 on offer at around 7/1 and 6/1. Some firms also have 2nd Set Score options available (see below). And most if not all of the mainstream bookies will have in-play betting available, with Set Scores and Set Total Games (eg. Under 6.5) to choose from.

  • You can watch the match on Live Streaming at bookie websites including Bet365, Boylesports, and Skybet. Or on TennisTV


Ones to Watch picks:

ATP Stockholm – Stockholm Open

Match scheduled approx. 6.30pm UK time

Leo Borg v Tommy Paul

  • 1st Set Correct Score: Paul 6-0 @ 15/2 (8.5) William Hill, 7/1 (8.0) Bet365, Boylesports, Unibet, 13/2 (7.5) BetVictor, 6/1 (7.0) Skybet, Betfred, Sporting Index Fixed Odds, 11/2 (6.5) Ladbrokes, Coral, Betway, SportingBet, 5/1 (6.0) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook
  • 2nd Set Correct Score: Paul 6-0 @ 9/1 (10.0) Boylesports, 11/2 (6.5) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Betway


Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch