Tennis Betting Advice - October 2022

Paris Masters picks at 40/1 & 200/1...

Sunday 30th October 2022

Good evening. As noted in last Wednesday's email, there's plenty of evidence of big-priced winners & finalists in recent years at the ATP Paris Masters. This indoor event is a big one, although it comes at a time of the year, late in the season, when many players and star names might already have an eye on the clean slate of the upcoming 2023 campaign.

With play starting in the 1st round from Monday morning, I'm at my keyboard tonight to get my first Paris picks to you. As ever, the Ones to Watch plan is this: we go for appealing outsiders, at attractive Each Way prices.

Looking at the Rolex Paris Masters 2022 draw, and the initial Outright Winner market, three players make the cut for me this evening...

Ones to Watch in Paris...

In a tournament this size, I could make a case for a dozen or so in-with-a-shout contenders, alongside the obvious big names at the top of the betting. Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Daniil Medvedev, and Carlos Alcaraz get nothing but respect from me. But this service has never been about backing the clear favourites - and I'm not about to change tack now.

The three Ones to Watch players on my day-one list for Paris, at odds of 33/1, 40/1, and 100/1+, are:

HUBERT HURKACZ. A regular in this column, Hubi has come very close for us before at big odds, on more than one occasion, and not least this season. I want to be on him when he next lands a big one. Odds of 33/1 in general appeal. He made the semis here last year. And in his four indoor hard court events on the run-up to this week, the Pole has made three quarter finals and a semi final.

DENIS SHAPOVALOV. The Canadian was runner-up here in 2019. And the feisty, exciting lefty arrives in the French capital this month in some of the best form of his career. Since the US Open at the end of the summer, the 23-year-old has gone: final (runner-up), semi final, quarter final, final (runner-up). All on hard courts, with the most recent being last week's run to the Vienna final, indoors. Shapo's one career ATP title to date came on indoor hard courts in Europe (Stockholm 2019). And three of his five final appearances in total have come indoors. Odds of 40/1 stand out for a player this talented, arriving in form.

LORENZO MUSETTI. The gifted Italian youngster was ranked no.59 in the world when he featured in our Ones to Watch in 2022 report at the start of the season. Now age 20, Musetti has climbed to a career-high ranking of no.23. Picking up his first two senior ATP titles along the way. The most recent of which came in Napoli this month, part of a run of form consisting of two semi finals and a final from his last four tournaments. A tough 1st-round match against Marin Cilic awaits on Monday. But if Lorenzo can get past the experienced Croatian, then his part of the draw looks promising. Odds of 200/1 100/1 account for the risk. This guy has the talent and game to do well, for sure.


Ones to Watch picks:

ATP Paris - Rolex Paris Masters

Outright Winner - Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):

  • Hubert Hurkacz @ 40/1 Unibet33/1 Bet365, Skybet, William Hill, BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Coral, Betway, 10Bet

  • Denis Shapovalov @ 40/1 Betfred, Bet365, Unibet, Skybet, BetVictor, Betway, 10Bet

  • Lorenzo Musetti @ 275/1 Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 200/1 Bet365, William Hill, 150/1 Skybet, Unibet, Betway, 100/1 Boylesports, Ladbrokes, Coral, 10Bet


Play starts from 10am, UK time. Bookmakers will take down their Outright Winner markets during the day's play.

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Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch