Tennis Betting Advice - September 2018
A 12/1 pick in Canada…
Monday 10th September 2018
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Leaving New York…
After a couple of good results on Saturday in the US Open Women’s Final and Mixed Doubles Final, things fell just short of the mark on Sunday.
In the Women’s Double Final, Timea Babos & Kristina Mladenovic had Match Point to land our 4/1 pick for the Set Betting 2-1 score – but could only find the net. Ashleigh Barty & Coco Vandeweghe came back to win 3-6, 7-6, 7-6 in a match that was every bit as tight as that score-line suggests; both teams had Match Points.
In the Men’s Final, trophy winner Novak Djokovic stayed close enough to Juan-Martin Del Potro on the Aces count for the +6.5 Games Handicap, but didn’t come through for my 8/1 Most Aces pick (6-1).
For the tournament overall my picks ended a tough 15 points down (-47% ROI). Getting a big price through to the final is often the key in these tournaments. Naomi Osaka was this year’s big breakthrough, lifting the trophy having been 50/1 on day one of the tournament. We jumped on her at 5/1 ahead of the semis.
We didn’t find the big one this time but once again we weren’t far off, and a nice winner or two this autumn will sort things out nicely for us…
Ones to Watch this week…
The tennis continues right away.
The men are on International duty for the Davis Cup later this week. And we’re straight back into action today with two Women’s hard-court tournaments taking place, WTA Hiroshima and WTA Quebec.
There aren’t many big names in action the week directly after a Grand Slam, and this week’s two tournaments are pretty low key. That can often be the setting for a lesser-known player to get a trophy and this week looks a case in point…
This summer’s hard-court star Aryna Sabalenka is the 11/4 (3.75) favourite to win indoors in Quebec. After a hot streak that saw her win 12 out of 14 matches with the only defeats coming to World No.1 Simona Halep and US Open winner Naomi Osaka, the 20-year-old Sabalenka is installed as the favourite here, but the 11/4 is not much of a price to get excited about.
In the opposite side of the draw the one to watch is Monica Puig at 12/1. Puig has been on our radar this summer, featuring in our US Open coverage. And she’s shown signs of getting back to form, winning 6 matches to reach the New Haven semi finals before New York. Puig is a fierce competitor and in a draw devoid of any ‘scary’ names, she looks well positioned to have a good tournament run this week.
Hiroshima makes its debut as the venue for the Japan Open this week. There are a handful of players in the region of 8/1 in what is an open looking Outright Winner market. The name that catches my eye in the draw is Ajla Tomljanovic…
Tomljanovic is at her best on hard courts. She has a simple game-plan – hitting the ball very hard indeed. There’s more to it than that of course, but one thing to note about the 25-year-old is her powerful physique – she looks every inch the modern player, tall and muscular (not unlike Sabalenka, or Garbine Muguruza).
Again the draw doesn’t hold much to fear here, and having knocked on the door in a few tournaments in recent weeks and months, Tomljanovic could be in for a good run this week. She reached the 4th Round in Cincinnati pre-US Open – taking a set off Halep – reached the quarter finals in New Haven and Mallorca and the final in Marrakech.
Tomljanovic won her 1st Round match this morning, 6-4, 6-1. I watched that match and she was looking good. Bet365, Ladbrokes & Coral are offering 10/1 right now. Other bookies will go up during today; I’d expect to see around that price or better.
WTA Quebec – Coupe Banque Nationale
BET: Monica Puig @ 12/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 12/1 (13.00) William Hill, Skybet, Bet365, Ladbrokes, Coral, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook
WTA Hiroshima – Hana-cupid Japan Open
BET: Ajla Tomljanovic @ 10/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 10/1 (11.00) Bet365, Ladbrokes, Coral, other bookies to price up today
I’ll be back later in the week with more from this week’s tournaments.
Enjoy the tennis…