Tennis Betting Advice - September 2018
US Open: Bets of the Day – 13/2 for the Night Session upset…
Wednesday 5th September 2018
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Good morning and welcome to Day 10 of your US Open 2018 service…
Some points are worth more than others…
Apologies for arriving a few minutes late in your inbox this morning. Last night was an all-nighter…
Rafael Nadal v Dominic Thiem finished at just gone 7am UK time. That’s just past 2am in New York. Epic stuff.
Our 3/1 underdog Thiem did all you can ask of a player – he left it all on the court. He was edged in a classic that went every inch the distance, the first match in this year’s tournament to be settled by a final-set tiebreak. Nadal, an undisputed all-time great, came through in 4 hours and 54 minutes. The score 0-6, 6-4, 7-5, 6-7, 7-6.
There’s an all-too-true saying in tennis that some points are worth more than others. That was certainly the case last night. The match stats tell us that Thiem won more Total Points than Rafa (171 to 165), served more Aces, had a higher First Serve Percentage, won a higher Percentage of First Serve Points, hit more Winners and even broke serve more times than Nadal… but ultimately lost the match.
One thing is clear. Thiem is going to go far in Grand Slams to come – and not just on clay. On this display, we’ll be backing him again for sure.
Our Outright picks 50/1 John Isner and 20/1 Karolina Pliskova did very well in reaching the quarter final stage. Both were eliminated yesterday by shorter-price players, hitting top form.
I’m a tennis fan as well as a betting man. Juan-Martin Del Potro and Serena Williams respectively were sensational in the way they recovered from slow starts to power on to victory. Likewise Nadal. As another tennis phrase goes: simply, too good.
In Tuesday’s other quarter final, reigning champ Sloane Stephens bowed out to the silky skills of Anastasija Sevastova. The Latvian is proving to be one of this year’s big-price breakthrough players – she was 150/1 at the start of the tournament.
The Quarter Final lowdown…
The bottom-half quarter finals take place today & tonight, and once again there are some intriguing matches on the schedule:
Naomi Osaka v Lesia Tsurenko – 5pm
Marin Cilic v Kei Nishikori – Not before 6.30pm
Carla Suarez Navarro v Madison Keys – Midnight
Novak Djokovic v John Millman
The key will-they-won’t-they points to raise for today’s matches can be distilled down to:
Bets of the Day…
On the betting front, there’s an outsider price that catches the eye today…
Suarez Navarro is a best price 12/5 (3.40) for the upset, with Keys a strong 4/11 (1.36) favourite in the Match Winner market.
Both players have lost matches from winning positions due to nerves & mental fragility before; both look to have improved in that department but the fact remains this a huge match and for me Keys could come a little unstuck here…
The American hasn’t really been tested yet. That should change tonight against her vastly experienced and often underrated Spanish opponent. All three of their previous meetings have gone the distance, with Keys coming out an eventual 2-1 winner each time.
Tonight could be Carla’s turn…
She didn’t get many headlines for it, but Suarez Navarro saw off Maria Sharapova in straight sets in this slot on the night session schedule earlier this week. Until then, the Russian had an unblemished played 23 won 23 record in US Open night matches.
Before that, Carla dug deep as she often needs to, to win 2-1 in each of the first three rounds. She’s no stranger to that score-line; never one to shy away from a three-set battle.
Suarez Navarro can pull off the upset tonight. She can get a lot of balls back and absorb & redirect the powerful hitting of Keys. For me the best price & most likely outcome for the underdog victory is the win that goes the distance, with odds of 13/2 and 6/1 standing out for the Spaniard to win 2-1.
Carla Suarez Navarro v Madison Keys:
BET: Set Betting – Suarez Navarro to win 2-1 @ 13/2
BOOKIES: 13/2 (7.50) 888 Sport, Unibet, 6/1 (7.00) Bet365, Marathonbet, 11/2 (6.50) Skybet, William Hill, NetBet, 10Bet
I’ll be back tomorrow, ready for the start of the semi finals.
Enjoy the tennis…