Tennis Betting Advice - September 2018

US Open: Bets of the Day – 8/1 value in the Men’s Final…

Sunday 9th September 2018

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • US Open Day 14…
  • 8/1 value in the Men’s Final…
  • A 4/1 shot in the Women’s Doubles…

Good morning and welcome to Day 14 of your US Open 2018 service…

Well done, Naomi…

Incredible scenes in the Women’s Final last night.

First and foremost, dealing with the actual tennis, well done and well played to Naomi Osaka. Competing in her first Grand Slam final, the 20-year-old was simply too good for Serena Williams and blasted the American off the court – winning 6-2, 6-4, and landing us an 11/2 or 5/1 Outright Winner payout in the process.

Naomi held herself together brilliantly, executing her brand of attacking tennis to near-perfection, on the biggest stage of them all.

Our Over 11.5 Aces pick missed out by 3. With Serena given a one-game penalty, the match was literally cut short – so who knows how that total might have ended up.

As for the drama with Serena VS. the Umpire, I’ve never seen anything like it. Neither had Annabel Croft or Jim Courier in the commentary box – and they’ve seen a lot more tennis than me.

8/1 value in the Men’s Final…

Tonight we have the Men’s Final (9pm) and this should be electrifying – 2009 US Open champion Juan-Martin Del Potro back in the bigtime v Wimbledon champ and multiple Grand Slam title winner Novak Djokovic.

Both men have been playing magnificently so far; Del Potro hitting the ball as hard as I’ve ever seen him do, and Djokovic also returning to his former greatness, hitting with supreme accuracy and turning defence into attack as only he can.

It’s odds-on to go Over 39.5 Games and Over 3.5 Sets. Djokovic is the 4/9 (1.44) match favourite. Del Potro is the 2/1 (3.00) underdog.

I’m going for a big price today…

The career head-to-head is 14-3 to Novak, but the stat that stands out for me by some distance is for the Most Aces. The market makes the big-hitting, 6’6” Del Potro a sure thing for this at as short as 1/18 (1.06). But their history says otherwise – and very convincingly, too…

The Argentinean may be ranked 6th in this tournament for Most Aces served, but when he plays Djokovic, things are different. That’s because Djokovic is one of the greatest returners of all time – he can get a racket to balls that would otherwise be Aces – and he’s got a handy serve of his own, too.

Del Potro has got the Most Aces in just one of their last 9 encounters.

Djokovic has won the Most Aces in 13 of their 17 career meetings overall (76%). That’s an impressive and significant statistic.

Novak cranks up his serving for the biggest matches, too. He’s previously won the Most Aces v Del Potro in a Shanghai final, Wimbledon semi final, Indian Wells semi final, ATP World Tour Finals semi final, Cincinnati semi final and in an Olympics Bronze Medal match.

Put simply, odds of 8/1 and 7/1 for Djokovic to win the Most Aces today are too big. This is a value opportunity. The price looks great.

You can even get Djokovic with a head-start, +6.5 Aces Handicap with 888 Sport and Marathonbet at around 9/10 (1.90). But I want the big price.

Juan-Martin Del Potro v Novak Djokovic:

BET: Most Aces – Djokovic @ 8/1
BOOKIES: 8/1 (9.00) BetVictor, 7/1 (8.00) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook

Latest odds here

A 4/1 shot in the Women’s Doubles…

We had a 3/1 winner in the Mixed Doubles Final yesterday, with Bethanie Mattek-Sands & Jamie Murray teaming up to successfully win by the 2-1 Set Betting score, 2-6, 6-3 and 11-9 in the Champions Tiebreak.

Today it’s the Women’s Doubles Final (6pm) and this time odds as big as 4/1 are available for the 2-1 victory…

The match in question is Ashleigh Barty & Coco Vandeweghe v Timea Babos & Kristina Mladenovic. The bookies are expecting a close one with the Match Winner market making Barty & Vandeweghe slight favourites at 4/5 (1.80), with Evens (2.00) for their opponents.

Both teams have won through every round in straight sets so far. On the head-to-head, they’ve faced each other three times this year, with Babos & Mladenovic winning the last two, 2-0 in Birmingham and 2-1 in Madrid. The sole victory for Barty & Vandeweghe also went the distance.

Babos is the current Women’s World No.1 Doubles player, with Mladenovic 8th.

Barty is ranked No.15 and Vandeweghe is No.52 – and I rate both the Australian and the American more likely to falter in terms of mental toughness if this one does go to a narrow decider.

Barty & Vandeweghe v Babos & Mladenovic:

BET: Set Betting – Babos & Mladenovic to win 2-1 @ 4/1
BOOKIES: 4/1 (5.00) Bet365, 19/5 (4.80) Marathonbet, 7/2 (4.50) BetVictor, 10/3 (4.33) Coral, William Hill, Betway

Latest odds here

I’ll be back on Monday with a tournament summary.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch