Tennis Betting Advice - September 2018
US Open: Bets of the Day – 20/1 value in the bottom half…
Monday 3rd September 2018
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Good morning and welcome to Day Eight of your US Open 2018 service…
Play starts from 4pm, UK time.
Two top-half picks alive & kicking…
We had a couple of good results yesterday, with Karolina Pliskova and John Isner both landing underdog odds of 6/5 to win their respective 4th Round matches.
That means we have two Outright Winner picks through to the quarter finals in the top halves of the draws – 20/1 Pliskova in the Women’s and 50/1 Isner in the Men’s.
Reigning champ Sloane Stephens was simply too good for our 66/1 outsider Elise Mertens. I have no ‘near misses’ to lament in that match. Mertens has now posted career-best runs at all four Grand Slams this season. We will have chances to back the upcoming 22-year-old Belgian at big prices again in the months ahead.
20/1 value in the bottom half…
The 4th Round concludes with players from the bottom halves of the Men’s & Women’s draws taking to the courts today. By tomorrow morning we will know the full US Open 2018 quarter final line-up.
In the Men’s section, Marin Cilic is the Outright Winner player & price that stands out for me.
The 6’6” Croatian has marked himself out as a strong Grand Slam contender in recent years, winning the US Open in 2014 and reaching two more finals since – at Wimbledon last summer and the Australian Open this January.
Cilic is one of the few men capable of genuinely challenging the Grand Slam dominance of Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer. Djokovic or Federer are the likely semi final opponents in this side of the draw…
Before then, Cilic needs to get past David Goffin today. After that the likely quarter final opponent would be Kei Nishikori. Cilic has won his last two meetings with Goffin, and has the mental edge of a 3-0 US Open final win over Nishikori here in 2014.
Along with Cilic’s Grand Slam experience and pedigree, he has a massive serve that can keep him going when things get tough. But most of all it’s his 20/1 Each Way price that makes him the man to back today…
That 20/1 price hasn’t changed since the start of the tournament – but we now have the luxury of knowing that he’s already got the first three rounds out of the way. The difference comes in the Each Way terms, where most bookies have now chopped the place payout terms to 1/3rd odds for reaching the final, as opposed to the standard 1/2 odds in the ante post market.
However, a couple of bookies are still going 1/2 the odds for 1-2 places today, making them the clear first choice here if you can get it.
With the potential opponents & match prices in mind, I make it 6/1 (7.00) that Cilic reaches the final from here. Odds of 20/1 with the reduced 1/3rd odds place terms come out slightly better than that (7.67). Terms of 1/2 odds at 20/1 offer 10/1 for reaching the final; with 18/1 attractive too with 9/1 for the place.
Men’s Outright Winner:
BET: Marin Cilic @ 20/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 20/1 (21.00) 188Bet, 18/1 (19.00) Skybet, Marathonbet
Also available: 20/1 Each Way with terms of 1/3rd odds for 1-2 places @ Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Boylesports, BetVictor, NetBet, 10Bet.
I’ll be back tomorrow morning with my advice and analysis for the start of the quarter finals.
Enjoy the tennis…