Tennis Betting Advice - September 2019
US Open: Day 10 – Berrettini to serve big…
Wednesday 4th September 2019
US Open - Day 10
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Good morning and welcome to Day 10 of your US Open 2019 daily service.
Nobody beats Grigor Dimitrov 8 times in a row…
The late match produced a classic US Open upset last night. Grigor Dimitrov beat Roger Federer 3-2 in over three hours, coming back from 1-2 down.
After seven previous career defeats to Federer, that was the Bulgarian’s first ever victory over the Swiss legend – bringing the head-to-head to 7-1.
Dimitrov was 8/1 to win the match.
At the start of the tournament, he was 200/1 for the trophy.
Grigor will face Daniil Medvedev in the semi final, meaning we’ll see at least one first-time Major finalist in the men’s championship match on Sunday night.
Rafael Nadal is the last man standing in terms of the big names. If he beats Diego Schwartzman today, Rafa will face the winner of the quarter final between Matteo Berrettini and Gael Monfils.
On day one, Berrettini was a 300/1 rank outsider in the betting, and Monfils was 100/1+. See below for more on that match.
25/1 Bencic flying the flag…
With Federer and Stan Wawrinka both going out last night, Belinda Bencic is the last Swiss player left in the draw.
Bencic plays Donna Vekic in the quarter finals today (5pm). Bencic is 22 year of age, Vekic is 23. Both are looking to reach a Grand Slam semi final for the first time…
Belinda is also our last player standing from our Ones to Watch picks. Going after the big prices in the Outright Winner markets – and after losing 33/1 Wawrinka and 30/1 Jo Konta yesterday – we’ve got 25/1 or 22/1 Bencic running for us today.
With Bencic the match favourite, a 1-point ‘saver bet’ is the simple and sensible advice here:
Backing Vekic to beat Bencic at 8/5 (2.60) would more than cover your initial level-stake Win Only bet on Bencic.
Berrettini to serve big…
Matteo Berrettini v Gael Monfils is the second match on the Arthur Ashe court today (6.30pm+, after Bencic v Vekic).
Both these men serve big but the price for the Italian to hit the Most Aces looks a bit of value here…
Berrettini has served 51 Aces so far. From players remaining in the tournament, only Medvedev is above him in the standings. Monfils has 33 Aces.
Berrettini has hit double-figures for Aces in three of his four matches, with tallies of 13, 13 and 18. In comparison, Monfils has got over 10 in just one of his four matches.
For the year to date, Matteo has served more total Aces than his French opponent. But he’s also played more matches. The more useful figure then is Aces per Match, which has Berrettini at 9.1 and Monfils at 7.2.
On the height stakes, the official stats have the Italian at 6’5”, one inch taller than Gael.
In terms of this match, it’s a big one for both men. But as ever, Monfils is hard to predict – against his ‘showman’ character and unpredictability, I can see his younger opponent holding concentration better on his own serve here.
Odds of 2/1+ (3.00+) available for Berrettini to get the Most Aces look well worth taking.
Today’s Ones to Watch picks:
SAVER BET – only place if you previously backed Bencic as advised
Match Winner:
BET: Donna Vekic to beat Belinda Bencic @ 8/5
BOOKIES: 8/5 (2.60) William Hill, Betway, NetBet, 10Bet
Latest odds here
Matteo Berrettini v Gael Monfils:
BET: Most Aces – Berrettini @ 9/4 (3.25)
BOOKIES: 9/4 (3.25) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 2/1 (3.00) Skybet. Also available at 11/10 (2.10) Bet365
Latest odds here
I’ll be back at 11am tomorrow with your next daily email.
P.S
If you have any questions or want to drop me a line during the tournament, I’m on hand via email. You can message me at: tom.wilson@oxonpress.co.uk
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson