Tennis Betting Advice - September 2019
US Open: Day 11 – Women’s Semi Finals…
Thursday 5th September 2019
US Open - Day 11
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Good morning and welcome to Day 11 of your US Open 2019 daily service.
Matteo Berrettini and Gael Monfils played out a five-set classic in the quarter finals last night. Berrettini eventually prevailed in a final-set tiebreak, after 3 hours and 56 minutes of entertainment.
Along the way, our Italian pick collected the Most Aces, 15-10, to land the odds we took yesterday. And they certainly did get taken…
Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook opened up at the best price 9/4 (3.25), and were backed into 4/7 (1.57) before play began. Skybet stuck to their guns more with 13/8 (2.63) holding out.
It’s always good to snag a value price. Yesterday’s flip-flop suggests the original prices were wrong – it doesn’t happen often – but all the stats pointed to Berrettini as the bigger server.
Nothing doing on the Aces & Double Faults front for me today, but I like these markets and we’ll be looking again for the men’s semis tomorrow and the finals at the weekend.
Belinda v Bianca…
It’s women’s semi finals day today, with play starting from Midnight (UK time) on Arthur Ashe court.
The final four sees 23-time Grand Slam winner Serena Williams as the sole Major finalist left in the draw. The other three all have age on their side, with 13 years between Serena and tonight’s opponent Elina Svitolina – and a couple years more for the other two…
Both matches should be good. But Belinda Bencic v Bianca Andreescu is the one that could get really exciting…
Back on 11th March we had both of these players as 28/1+ Ones to Watch picks for Indian Wells. Bencic went on to reach the semi finals that week – and Andreescu won the whole thing.
The 19-year-old Canadian has been a trendy pick since then and as such she’s been in with the favourites throughout the US Open, from a starting price of 14/1. That comes after Andreescu won Toronto as a 33/1 shot, on her comeback from a long injury layoff – with Serena herself retiring injured in the final.
You can’t back them all. But we’ve got one player left standing at attractive odds…
Bencic was 40/1 on day one. We got on at 25/1 or 22/1 as a Win Only pick before the 4th Round, where Belinda took out World No.1 and reigning champion Naomi Osaka.
After a strong 2-0 win over Donna Vekic yesterday, the 22-year-old from Switzerland goes into this semi final with a great opportunity to reach a first Grand Slam final.
Andreescu will be thinking the same, of course. The Canadian is the bookies’ 4/6 (1.67) favourite today. Bencic is the match underdog but certainly has the game to stay with the feisty teenager and even take it to her…
I mentioned pre-tournament that Bianca has a tendency to get into long, three-set matches – which does her no favours at all considering her long-running injury problems. She’s a fighter though, and this year the youngster has usually found a way to win.
The fact remains though that Andreescu has played one more match and three more sets than Bencic…
The Swiss player was handed a free pass in the 3rd Round when Anett Kontaveit pulled out due to illness. Belinda has won her two matches since then in straight sets.
Bianca has had back-to-back three-setters, coming from behind last night to beat Elise Mertens, 2-1. Before that match had even started, Bencic was done and dusted for the evening, having played the earlier match. That period of rest has to help a little.
‘Saver bet’ advice:
Having said all that, we have to respect Andreescu. If you’re on Bencic as advised earlier this week, staking 3 points on Andreescu to beat her at 4/6 (1.67) would cover your entire outlay on Bencic & the savers. That will still leave a nice amount of points to work with in the final, should Belinda get there.
If you happen to be on Bencic at huge prices – and I know some of you are – then you’ll have loads of room to manoeuvre here. (I’ve heard from two Ones to Watch members who took big early prices, including John B who has Bencic at 80/1, after we first flagged her up for Wimbledon and the 2019 Grand Slams earlier this year.)
Today’s Ones to Watch pick:
SAVER BET – only place if you previously backed Bencic as advised
STAKE: 3 points
BET: Bianca Andreescu to beat Belinda Bencic @ 4/6
BOOKIES: 4/6 (1.67) Bet365, BetVictor, William Hill, Betway, Boylesports
Latest odds here
I’ll be back tomorrow with your next daily email.
Enjoy the tennis…