Tennis Betting Advice - September 2019
US Open: Women’s Final – Andreescu v Williams…
Saturday 7th September 2019
US Open - Day 13
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Good morning and welcome to Day 13 of your US Open 2019 daily service.
Women’s Final – preview & analysis…
A mouth-watering match to look forward to this evening, with teenager Bianca Andreescu taking on 23-time Grand Slam champion Serena Williams. It’s youth against experience, new versus old – and it could be a classic…
There are three key points that inform my opinion and analysis for the women’s final of the US Open 2019.
One) Serena’s record in finals since having a child
Having returned to the tour in 2018, Williams is none from four in finals since becoming a mother. Fitness and injury have contributed, most recently in the WTA Toronto final (against Andreescu) where the 37-year-old could only manage four games in the first set before having to retire due to back spasms.
The other factor is pressure. Serena has shown some of the most incredible mental toughness of any player ever. But, the weight of that ‘one more’ Grand Slam tag does seem to have taken its toll somewhat. Serena is one trophy away from a record-equalling 24th Grand Slam title.
In her three Major finals since making her comeback (in itself of course a highly impressive achievement), Serena has lost in straight sets each time: 2-0 to Angelique Kerber at Wimbledon 2018, 2-0 to Naomi Osaka here at the US Open last year – and 2-0 to Simona Halep at Wimbledon this summer.
This fortnight in New York, Serena has been playing her best tennis since returning to action – serving fierce, and moving better than she has for a long time. But the questions do remain.
Two) Andreescu’s record v Top 10 players
Andreescu’s 2019 record is phenomenal. Overall, her match record stands at won 44 lost 4. That’s quite remarkable. And when you note that three of those losses were three-set battles back in January and March, and the other was an injury retirement – the young Canadian is basically unbeaten on a hard court in 22 matches.
Bianca is new on the tour this year. She’s had the benefit of brining an element of surprise to many of her opponents. And this 19-year-old appears to be absolutely fearless. She loves the big stage. And she knows she can, feels she can and even expects to be beating the big names…
So far in her career, Andreescu’s win-loss record v Top 10 players is a staggering 7-0. Take out the Serena retirement in Toronto and that 6-0 record includes victories over Kerber (twice), Karolina Pliskova, Caroline Wozniacki, Elina Svitolina and Kiki Bertens. Three of those five opponents are former Grand Slam finalists or winners.
The teenager won’t fear taking on the former World No.1 and current No.8 today.
Three) Andreescu’s record in three-set matches
Seeing that Serena stat – three consecutive straight-sets losses in Grand Slam finals, when priced as the favourite each time – the 2-0 Andreescu upset might seem a logical underdog pick today. And you could be right. But I like the three-set angle here, which also offers the greatest returns of any of the Match Winner or Set Betting options…
Andreescu has won each of her last 12 matches that have gone to a deciding set. That’s a frighteningly good three-set record that indicates her mental strength and competitive nature. You don’t win 12 close ones in a row by luck.
Conclusion:
Serena has been playing her best since coming back from childbirth. She’s won 23 Grand Slam titles. But there are chinks in the armour. Like Osaka in the US Open final 12 months ago, Andreescu is the real deal. It’s not often you get a chance to back this precocious youngster at underdog prices. With the above form and factors in mind, odds of 6/1 for a dramatic 2-1 win look good for the upset today.
Today’s Ones to Watch pick:
Bianca Andreescu v Serena Williams:
BET: Set Betting – Andreescu to win 2-1 @ 6/1
BOOKIES: 6/1 (7.00) Bet365, Ladbrokes, Coral, BetVictor, Betfred, Sportingbet, NetBet, 10Bet
Latest odds here
I’ll be back tomorrow with my preview & analysis for the men’s final.
P.S
If you have any questions or want to drop me a line, I’m on hand via email during the tournament. You can message me at: tom.wilson@oxonpress.co.uk
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson