Tennis Betting Advice - September 2019

US Open: Men’s Final – and three to come…

Sunday 8th September 2019

US Open - Day 14

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Men’s Final…
  • Daniil Medvedev v Rafael Nadal…
  • Play starts 9pm…

Good morning and welcome to Day 14 of your US Open 2019 daily service.

Bravo Bianca...

Congratulations go to Bianca Andreescu this morning, with the teenager winning the US Open in what was her first ever appearance in the main draw.

Andreescu beat Serena Williams 6-3, 7-5 with another brilliant performance to cap a remarkable breakthrough year for the 19-year-old.

For Serena however, the search for an elusive 24th career Grand Slam title continues. Turning 38 later this month, Williams has now lost four Major finals in a row – all of them in straight sets.

Congratulations too to Ones to Watch member David C, who got himself on Andreescu for the US Open at a whopping 80/1 earlier this year. What a win.

There could be more celebrations in the ranks, too. Our Ones to Watch in 2019 player Daniil Medvedev contests the men’s final v Rafael Nadal tonight. Long-time reader Scott W emailed me last night to say he made a profit from Andreescu in the women’s final – and his secretary took note of our Medvedev mention earlier this year and backed the young Russian at an eye-watering 125/1 Each Way. With the place part of that long-shot selection already promising a payout of over 60/1 on its own, that’s another great example of landing a huge price at a Grand Slam by looking beyond the favourites.

If you have any stories or prices to beat those, let me know:

Medvedev v Nadal…

The men’s final (9pm UK time) is a re-match of last month’s ATP Montreal Masters final. Nadal won that one in a comfortable two sets, 6-3, 6-0.

Medvedev’s inspired and battling performances so far in New York suggest this match could be closer. The Russian is 4/1 (5.00), Rafa is the strong 1/5 (1.20) favourite.

Nadal has been efficient this fortnight with one free pass (opponent withdrew) and four 3-0 wins from his five completed matches.

An interesting stat to me is that all five of Rafa’s matches have seen a Total Points tally of less than 200. The highest was 196 points, in the 3-1 win over big server Marin Cilic.

Medvedev’s matches have been longer and his totals have been 200+ throughout. However, while it’s wise not to write off the 23-year-old, this really is all about Nadal and the Spaniard could wear down the rally-happy Russian today. Especially with Medvedev carrying a bit of wear and tear after a huge summer of tennis (this is his fourth consecutive final – first ever in a Grand Slam).

Their Montreal final averaged 47.5 points per set. If that average is an indication of what’s to come tonight, but with Medvedev putting on a better show than that day, then a four-set match could still come in under the 200-point mark.

This ‘Total Points’ thinking leads me to the spread betting markets. I’ve been keeping an eye on them this week, initially on the lookout for Aces and Double Faults opportunities. They haven’t been forthcoming. But the Points spread could prove worth a look this evening…

In the ‘normal’ markets, the fixed odds bookies are betting Under or Over 33.5 or 34.5 games in the Total Games options. That suggest a three-or-four set match. The spread firms are a little higher than that, asking buyers to go in above 38 games.

It follows, then, that that slight Total Games discrepancy follows through to the Total Points line. SportingIndex have the best option in that respect – with a ‘Sell’ (bet low) mark of 233 points. SpreadEx are at 231.

If you’re new to spread betting then I should alert you to the standard warning: unlike fixed odds betting, you can lose more than your original stake. If you Sell at 233 for £1 and there are actually 250 points played in the match, then you lose the difference x your stake. In that case, £17.

However, if Nadal does bring this one home in efficient fashion and continues along the lines of his sub-200 total points tallies, the upside here could be a win of 30+ x your stake.

It’s all ifs, buts and maybes, of course. Spread betting isn’t for everyone. But that’s my area of interest for this match. My opinion is that the ‘Sell’ lines look a little high, so going low could prove the value move.

Today’s Ones to Watch pick:

Daniil Medvedev v Rafael Nadal:

BET: Spread betting – Total Points – Sell @ 233
BOOKIES: 233 @ SportingIndex, 231 @ SpreadEx

I’ll be back tonight with our next Ones to Watch picks in the Outright Winner markets. Three women’s tournaments start in Asia on Monday morning.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch