Tennis Betting Advice - September 2019
US Open: Day Eight – 25/1 opportunity in the women's...
Monday 2nd September 2019
US Open - Day Eight
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Good morning and welcome to Day Eight of your US Open 2019 daily service.
Playing for prices…
As I’ve said before, staying up all night for the tennis feels a lot better when your player wins.
Last night was another 4am job. Not that I’m complaining. The night matches under the lights are iconic to the US Open – and Sunday evening didn’t disappoint.
Yesterday was a good example of how a price can change overnight. And it also demonstrated the value of staying on top of what’s going on during a tournament.
Namely, in this instance, the fact that Karolina Pliskova and Novak Djokovic had both been struggling a little in the first week – be it with injury, illness or something else. We can’t know what goes in the locker room. But we can make sure we stay alert.
We took decisive action by backing Johanna Konta at 30/1 or 25/1 in the women’s Outright Winner market. As anticipated, Pliskova had another mid-match dip. And Jo fought back from a set and a break down to knock out our original pick, 6-7, 6-3, 7-5.
This morning, the bookies have Konta at 15/1 at best and as short as 10/1.
In the men’s, we took the outsider route by jumping on former champion Stan Wawrinka at 33/1 or 28/1. Wawrinka played a brilliant match – and looked to be enjoying himself on the big stage, too.
Djokovic had his shoulder massaged at the end of the second set and eventually succumbed, retiring after losing his serve early in the third, with the score at 6-4, 7-5, 2-1 to his Swiss opponent.
Wawrinka has been chopped to 9/1 for the men’s title.
We’re on the right side of two big prices there.
And we ended up getting on at just the right time in terms of landing the best Each Way terms (1/2 odds for reaching the final). In today’s revised Outright markets, the bookies are going reduced terms of 1/3rd the odds.
At the start of the tournament, my brief summary of Grigor Dimitrov would have been something along the lines of, ‘woefully out of form and recently injured.’ But the Bulgarian has put together a bit of a comeback, and yesterday he took out our 28/1 shot for Quarter 2, Alex De Minaur, in the 4th Round.
Striking a ‘saver bet’ was completely validated then, and we ended up slightly above break-even on the De Minaur position overall – having initially bagged the value prices and seen him cut from 28/1 and 25/1 to 5/1.
Alex is One to Watch for the rest of the year – and in seasons to come. The 20-year-old Australian looks to have a great attitude and work ethic to set him up for a very successful career.
Those Sunday results mean that going into week two, we have two Ones to Watch in the quarter finals at attractive prices – Konta in the women’s and Wawrinka in the men’s.
There’s all to play for in the next seven days.
Match of the day…
The 4th Round will be concluded today, with eight matches to be played across the men’s and women’s draws to complete the quarter final line-ups.
There’s plenty to look forward to on the Monday schedule…
Alexander Zverev v Diego Schwartzman could be a rollercoaster – and five sets is certainly not out of the question. The oddsmakers go 2/1 (3.00) for it to go the distance.
Marin Cilic v Rafael Nadal is the opening night match in the Arthur Ashe stadium (Midnight UK time). Two former US Open champs go head to head here. Rafa has been in superb form so far. Cilic has hit more Double Faults (37) than any player left in the tournament. Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook make Cilic short-odds on at 1/10 (1.10) to get the Most Double Faults in this one.
In the women’s, the match of the day is the first one up on Arthur Ashe at 5pm…
Naomi Osaka is defending her 2018 title. Naomi will be warmly received by the crowd here, after a sporting embrace and on-court interview with 15-year-old Coco Gauff last time out.
However, at 12 noon New York time the stadium might be a bit quiet here. And a flat atmosphere could equate to a deafening silence for a player who has openly admitted to getting nervous about her title defence, and feeling the pressure of the World No.1 tag…
What’s more, today’s opponent Belinda Bencic has beaten her twice already this year…
Bencic is a player we’ve been following as One to Watch over the last couple of seasons since returning from injury. Still only 22 years old (Osaka is 21), Bencic is having a great 2019 campaign, despite a bit of a summer slump. So far this year, the Swiss player is the women’s tour leader for both Top 10 victories (8) and Top 5 wins (5).
Hard courts are Belinda’s best surface. She made the quarter finals at the US Open as a teenager in 2014.
Two of those high-ranking 2019 victories were against Osaka. On both occasions, Bencic was a shorter price in the Match Winner market then she is today – where she’s a general 7/5 (2.75) shot, and slightly bigger in places.
The interesting thing for me here is that whoever wins this match will be a clear favourite to win the next round and go on to the semi final. Donna Vekic or Julia Goerges will await the winners in the quarter final.
With that in mind, the current Outright price for Bencic just looks to have enough juice in it to warrant an outside bet here…
This has a bit of a roll-the-dice feel to it. Bencic had a free pass through the 3rd Round after her opponent withdrew ill before the match. Belinda may be fresh and ready for this one – or not fully tuned. And as ever, if Osaka plays her spellbinding best, then the World No.1 will be a tough beat for anyone.
But with that quarter final opportunity v Vekic or Goerges a tantalising one match away, odds of 25/1 and 22/1 stand out as a Win Only pick in the women’s event. If Bencic can get past Osaka, then that will be a trader’s price in the next round and beyond.
Today’s Ones to Watch pick:
Women’s – Outright Winner:
BET: Belinda Bencic @ 25/1
BOOKIES: 25/1 888 Sport, Unibet, 22/1 Bet365, Skybet, Boylesports, NetBet, 10Bet
I’ll be back at 11am tomorrow with your next daily email.
If you have any questions or want to drop me a line during the tournament, I’m on hand via email. You can message me at: firstname.lastname@example.org
Enjoy the tennis…