Tennis Betting Advice - September 2020
Three 100/1 outsiders for Rome…
In your Ones to Watch email today:
As I write this Sunday night, the second Grand Slam of the year is drawing to a close, with the US Open men’s final between Alexander Zverev and Dominic Thiem.
That’s on the TV. And I’m at the computer, as it’s time for our Sunday Night Club…
This is where we look to grab some nice, early prices in the Outright Winner markets for the upcoming week’s tournaments.
Both men and women are in action in Rome as of Monday morning, with the WTA Premier 5 and ATP Masters 1000 events.
Having looked at the draws, there are a few players in my notes. I’ll be monitoring progress and prices in the opening day or two on the clay courts in Italy.
On the absolute biggest end of the odds, there are three 100/1 outsiders that we could do well to get in the book, up front, before the 1st round tees off.
This trio are all at their best on the clay, and capable of springing a surprise or two this week...
The 21-year-old Norwegian has a career match win-loss record on the red dirt of 131-77. All four of his career titles at all Senior levels have come on clay. Before lockdown, Ruud won his maiden ATP title, lifting the trophy in Buenos Aires at 28/1. In this bigger tournament, he can outstrip his underdog price by getting past Top 20 opponent Karen Khachanov on Monday. If he gets through that test, then he could build a run here.
It’s a very similar case for 24-year-old Garin. The Chilean was a 10/1 winner for us at Rio de Janeiro in February. He also won ATP Cordoba at 11/1 before that. In total, Garin has won 16 titles, all on clay. Including those two ATP trophies this year, and two last year (Munich and Houston). His overall match win-loss on his favourite surface is 246-134. Compare that to a 40-35 record on hard courts, and it’s clear that clay is the surface to follow Cristian on.
Jil Belen Teichmann
Continuing the theme, in the women’s draw, Teichmann is another that could carry their career clay record onto this big stage. The 23-year-old Swiss player is 145-70 on the clay. Producing eight titles, including two at full WTA level last season. As we noted recently, Teichmann has a habit of delivering at underdog prices, with those two 2019 tournament wins paying out at odds of 40/1 and 50/1. With big name Karolina Pliskova looking a vulnerable favourite (once again) in this bottom half of the WTA Rome draw, there’s certainly scope for an outsider to make their mark this week.
As I say, I’ve got more thoughts on the Rome draws and Outright opportunities this week. But with those three outsiders all playing on Monday, we’ll start the week with the biggest prices…
Outright Winner picks - Each Way
Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places.
Play starts from 9am UK time on Monday. Bookies take down their Outright Winner markets during the day’s play.
Any questions, I’m on: firstname.lastname@example.org
Enjoy the tennis…