Tennis Betting Advice - September 2020

US Open: Day 10 – cold hard predictions…

Wednesday 9th September 2020

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • US Open – Day 10…
  • Quarter Finals…
  • Underdogs v Favourites…

Good morning and welcome to Day 10 of our US Open daily coverage…

US Open – Day 10…

Ahead of the 4th round, we noted Alexander Zverev’s topsy-turvy serving stats. He hits a lot of aces, but also a scarily high number of double faults. We also noted his propensity for playing out long matches at Grand Slams.

The German was it again last night. Racking up 18 aces, but also in double figures for double faults, with 12.

For a while there, it looked like our 20/1 underdog pick Borna Coric was going to reach the semi finals. The Croatian led by a set and a break. But Zverev ground it out in the end, 3-1.

That’s the fourth time in five matches at this Grand Slam that Zverev has won 3-1. The one match where he didn’t, was the one match in which I backed him to win by that 3-1 Set Betting score. That’s the way it goes sometimes.

The bookies are still being a bit tame with their Aces and Double Faults markets. Scouting around, at the time of writing this morning, I can’t see any Most Aces or Most Double Faults options for today’s quarter finals. That’s a poor show at this level of one of the four biggest tennis tournaments on the planet. We’ll hope for better in the semi finals and finals.

Underdogs v Favourites…

On the underdog front, we’ve got two genuine Ones to Watch outsiders going into battle for us today…

In the men’s, our last man standing is the first name we got down. Andrey Rublev was an early-bird 150/1 & 100/1 Each Way pick for this event, right back in January. At the start of the US Open fortnight, he was 50/1 & 40/1.

If you’re on any of those Rublev prices, then you’ve done good. In the current Outright Winner prices, the Russian is around 12/1.

Long-term Ones to Watch followers will know that that’s a victory of sorts. Price is king.

But if you’re new to our style of outright betting, then you might not be convinced. And I wouldn’t blame you…

Because if this is your first tournament with me, then chances are you won’t land a Big One in the outright markets at the very first attempt.

But this US Open is just one event. Next week, I’ll be turning my attention to the ATP & WTA tournaments in Rome. After that, Hamburg, Strasbourg, and then the French Open.

There is no crystal ball. And we don’t back the favourites. Doing our business in the lower echelons of the tennis outright markets, we feast on a big kill maybe a few times a year. And when the odds are of the size that we’ve already hit elsewhere this season – 16/1, 25/1, 50/1 – we live a good life overall.

Rublev is our lone survivor in the US Open 2020 men’s event. He takes on Daniil Medvedev this evening for a place in the semi finals…

Medvedev was 6/1 at the start of the tournament. The head-to-head is 3-0 to the favourite. Medvedev is expected to win. If he doesn’t, then we’ll have Rublev still alive, with a massive price on our side. That’s the situation.

  • And let’s not forget… in January of last year, it was Medvedev who was the young up & coming Russian priced as a 100/1 outsider for the US Open (and featured in our Ones to Watch list for that season). That summer, Medvedev went on to reach the final in New York. It’s not inconceivable that we could be talking about Rublev in the same breath next year, or at Grand Slams to come

In the women’s, we have 100/1 rank outsider Tsvetana Pironkova…

This is a classic scenario for us if ever there was one.

Our 100/1 shot Pironkova taking on the name that everyone knows, Serena Williams.

The head-to-head is 4-0 to the American star, although the last meeting was way back in 2015. Both women have become mothers since then. A lot has changed. One thing that hasn’t is the odds. Serena is an absolutely massive favourite to win this, at 1/6 (1.17). Pironkova is 4/1 (5.0).

Making the case for the underdog, Pironkova has a menacing way of building rallies, and could drag Serena into some long and tricky exchanges today. The Bulgarian also has a pretty calm head on her shoulders, and certainly has nothing to lose here. All the pressure is on Williams. And in the last couple of years, that weight of expectation has got to Serena at times.

Cold hard predictions…

The cold hard predictions in those two matches would be Medvedev to win 3-0, and Serena to win 2-0. You’ll get around 5/2 (3.5) for that Set Betting double, if you want to follow the perceived ‘inevitable’ outcomes.

As I’ve outlined, I won’t be following the masses there. I’d take a bet that in the Amazon Prime Video TV studios today, the likes of Greg Rusedski, Tim Henman, Daniella Hantuchova, Anne Keothavong and co all go for those straight-sets score-lines in the pre-match deliberations on air.

Azarenka to go the distance…

The one match on today’s quarter final schedule that doesn’t feature an overwhelming favourite is Victoria Azarenka v Elise Mertens

The bookies have this one as basically 50-50, with Azarenka very slightly in front in the betting at 4/5 (1.8). Mertens is Evens (2.0).

These two have been form women on the tour since play resumed last month. Both have reached WTA finals in that time. Azarenka is on a nine-match winning streak on these New York courts. Mertens has won eight of her last nine matches.

This could be an absorbing battle, with Mertens playing her best tennis to push the Belarusian into the corners, and Azarenka displaying all her fighting qualities, and ramping it up on her serve. Expect both women to chase down every ball.

If it comes down to nerves – and it may well do – then Azarenka has the mental toughness and experience to drive this home, one way or another.

With that in mind, the 2-1 Set Betting score appeals here at odds of 3/1 and bigger.

Ones to Watch:

Victoria Azarenka v Elise Mertens
Play starts Midnight

Set Betting:

  • Azarenka to win 2-1 is 7/2 (4.5) with Boylesports, 888 Sport, Unibet, 10/3 (4.33) Skybet, BetVictor, 16/5 (4.2) William Hill, Ladbrokes, Coral, 31/10 (4.1) Sportingbet, Bwin, 3/1 (4.0) Bet365, Betway

I’ll be back tomorrow morning with your US Open Day 11 email.

Over at WTA Istanbul, our 25/1 pick Anna Karolina Schmiedlova won her 1st match yesterday. We’ll look at that event again ahead of tomorrow’s matches.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch