Tennis Betting Advice - September 2020
US Open: Day Four – 5/1 for a teenage upset…
Thursday 3rd September 2020
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Good morning and welcome to day four of your US Open daily service…
Play starts at 4pm. You can watch the matches live on Amazon Prime Video.
Top seed out…
All of the women’s seeds got through the 1st round. But in yesterday’s first batch of 2nd round matches, the big names started to fall…
The biggest tree to tumble, if not the most surprising, was no.1 seed Karolina Pliskova. The Czech was very well beaten by Caroline Garcia, 6-1, 7-6. Pliskova looked lost and frustrated throughout.
Less dramatic results, although still very much of interest, saw the exits of 21-year-old Elena Rybakina, and 20-year-old Dayana Yastremska. Those are two of the young guns expected to challenge for honours in the near future.
Both were beaten in straight sets by Americans. Shelby Rogers was 2/1 to beat Rybakina. Madison Brengle was a 4/1 victor over Yastremska.
In total, seven women’s seeds were sent packing on Wednesday. The bottom half of the 2nd round draw plays today.
Struck by the ‘101’…
One of yesterday’s more eyewatering score-lines was Kristina Mladenovic’s loss to Varvara Gracheva…
Frenchwoman Mladenovic was one of my match picks on day three. She went 6-1, 5-1 up, and at 5-2, had 0-40 on her opponent’s serve… but somehow, she let that massive lead slip, and Gracheva fought back admirably.
The 20-year-old Russian turned the scoreboard around, saving four match points, and eventually winning 1-6, 7-6, 6-0.
When Mladenovic was 6-1, 5-2 & 0-40 up (as close as you can get to winning), she was 1/100 (1.01) on the Betfair Exchange (the shortest odds you can get).
That ‘101’ turnaround shows just how brutal – and fascinating – the tennis scoring system is. It’s never over until it’s over.
Kerber and Martic progress…
Yesterday we added two ‘unfashionable names’ to our Outright Winner picks in that top half of the women’s draw. Two experienced players that look to be flying under the radar a bit in New York, with so much attention on the younger names.
Angelique Kerber won her 2nd round match, 6-3, 7-6 against fellow German, Anna-Lena Friedsam.
Petra Martic was also a straight-sets winner, booking her place in the 3rd round with a 6-3, 6-4 win over the veteran Katerina Bondarenko.
Both those matches saw our player getting well-tested by an opponent raising their game for the occasion.
With 10/1 Pliskova one of the favourites knocked out last night, and a handful of other seeds exiting the top side of the draw:
33/1 Kerber is now 25/1 and 20/1 (and as short as 14/1 with Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook).
50/1 Martic is now 40/1 in general.
The bottom half of both the women’s & men’s draws are in 2nd round action today. The Each Way, outsider picks we have running for us are:
As we saw yesterday, being an odds-on favourite doesn’t guarantee anything. But I do fancy our players’ chances of getting through those matches.
The golden aim overall, of course, is to get one of our Ones to Watch big-odds picks deep into the tournament. That’s no easy feat. But we have good prices on our side.
5/1 for a teenage upset…
The 16-year-old Cori Gauff fell in the 1st round, but there are plenty of other teenagers making good progress in this women’s US Open field..
The lady that beat Gauff, Anastasija Sevastova, was knocked out by another youngster yesterday, 18-year-old Marta Kostyuk.
Teens playing today include Caty McNally (18), Iga Swiatek (19), Leylah Fernandez (17), and Amanda Anisimova (19).
Anisimova is up against yet another teenager, 16-year-old Katrina Scott. We’ve seen three women’s match winners at odds of 4/1+ in the last couple of days. This match has the potential to upset the odds, too…
As I’ve mentioned already this week, Anisimova is a player I like (the American youngster was a 150/1 outsider pick for this tournament last year, before she pulled out. And she’s on our Ones to Watch in 2020 list).
But Amanda has been wobbly in matches far too often for my liking. Making her hard to back as a favourite, as she is today, at just 1/8 (1.13). There was nothing particularly convincing about her 7-5, 7-5 win over world no.133 Viktoriya Tomova in the 1st round. She’s still in the danger area, as a lot of players are to be fair, of double-faulting or faltering when serving for the match, for example.
Twelve months ago, Katrina Scott reached the quarter finals of the US Open Juniors. Now making her first steps on the Senior tour, the teenager had a good win in the 1st round this week, beating the highly-rated 23-year-old Russian, Natalia Vikhlyantseva, 7-6, 6-2. The American saved six of the eight break points that she faced there.
This match is another step up, but the young players have been adjusting to the empty-stadium US Open conditions well so far, and I reckon there’s value in Scott’s 5/1 price today.
Ones to Watch:
Match Winner pick:
To find out why I recommend certain bookies over others for tennis bets, click here.
Play starts from 4pm.
I’ll be back at 10am on Friday with analysis, picks and advice for day five.
P.S
If you have any questions or want to drop me a line during the tournament, I’m on hand via email. You can message me at: tom.wilson@oxonpress.co.uk
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson