Tennis Betting Advice - September 2020

US Open: Day Five – Norrie could go the distance…

Friday 4th September 2020

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Play starts 4pm…
  • Day Five…
  • Norrie could go the distance…

Good morning and welcome to day five of our US Open daily coverage…

Play starts at 4pm. You can watch the matches live on Amazon Prime Video.

More seeds tumble…

Our 5/1 pick Katrina Scott gave a good account of herself yesterday. For a set and a half against Amanda Anisimova, the 16-year-old was the better player, establishing a 6-4, 4-3 lead. The 19-year-old hung in and turned it around in the end, though.

Price is key, and 5/1 for the younger player appealed to me in that match. Based on her Grand Slam debut this week, teenager Scott is one to watch in the future, for sure.

Going after 5/1 shots is certainly not far-fetched. Thursday saw seeded players Milos Raonic, Garbine Muguruza and Johanna Konta all knocked out by opponents at odds of between 4/1 and 5/1.

In terms of our outsiders in the Outright Winner markets, 50/1 picks Andrey Rublev and Maria Sakkari both moved through to the 3rd round. While 250/1 shot Dan Evans is locked in battle with Corentin Moutet, in a match that was proving to be highly entertaining (and a bit feisty), until rain stopped play last night.

A mixed mailbag…

Betting is a game of opinions. Regular Ones to Watch correspondent David C emailed in ahead of that Scott v Anisimova match yesterday afternoon:

“Hi Tom, I hope you’re wrong today - my biggest bet is on Anisimova!”

Well, David, your pick is still in the hat.

It’s been good to hear from other members sharing their tournament bets, too. Dave T backed these in the women’s:

“I've added Kontaveit, Mertens, Rybakina and Brady to my portfolio … all of them over 20s I think so have some value. I definitely want to take on Osaka too and can see Brady coming through that quarter”

Talking of opinions, the mailbag has been a mixed one so far this week. Ian is enjoying the daily US Open coverage:

“Thanks for emails which I’ve thoroughly enjoyed”

Mike is polite and pragmatic:

“Thanks again for your excellent service. They don't always win but that's gambling”

Others, not so much…

“Do us a favour and keep your selections to yourself - shocking, amazes me how people like you are allowed on the internet”

I won’t name and shame the person that sent that one. Everyone is entitled to their opinions. Try not to be too rude, though.

My email is:

The numbers game…

Ones to Watch isn’t to everyone’s taste. I know that. I don’t hide the fact. My approach is to target the bigger prices, so it needs to be understood that if you choose to follow my picks, you will have more losers than winners.

I do my research, and provide my analysis and opinions. There are certainly no guarantees of profits. But the figures show that hunting at the big end of the Outright Winner, Each Way prices is certainly a worthwhile pursuit…

So far in 2020, there have been 34 completed tournaments across the Grand Slams, ATP & WTA Tours combined:

  • 15 of those tournaments have seen a finalist at odds of 50/1+ (44%)
  • 6 events have produced a finalist at odds of 100/1+ (18%)
  • And 28 of the 68 players reaching the finals across those 34 tournaments have been at odds of 20/1+ (41%)

Those numbers & prices make encouraging reading.

We’ve got a couple of players in that price range running for us today…

Angelique Kerber (33/1) is taking on Ann Li in the 3rd round. The bookies have our pick as the 2/5 (1.4) favourite to win that match.

And our other selection in that side of the draw, Petra Martic (50/1), is priced as the 2/7 (1.29) favourite to beat Varvara Gracheva.

Day Five – Norrie v Davidovich Fokina…

The 3rd round starts today. Sticking on the upside of the odds, there’s one match that I’m focusing on with my analysis…

Left-hand attack…

British left-hander Cameron Norrie is an 8/15 (1.53) favourite to beat Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. I opposed the Spaniard earlier in the week, but I’m willing to change my mind on the 21-year-old. He’s put together his best Grand Slam results to date here.

There’s no head-to-head for these two, but it’s worth noting that Davidovich Fokina has an 8-0 career win-loss record v left-handers on the ATP Challenger Tour. The formbook shows this is the Spanish youngster’s first match at full ATP or Grand Slam level against a lefty.

Hard-court form…

Norrie had a big win in the 1st round, coming from two sets down, and saving two match points, to record a 3-2 victory over a seeded and established Top 20 opponent, Diego Schwartzman. The Argentinean didn’t look himself in that match though, unhappy and possibly carrying an injury. The final result may have slightly flattered the Brit.

And while Norrie backed it up with a win over 28-year-old world no.103 Federico Coria in the 2nd round, it’s very much worth noting that clay-courter Coria has only got six career match wins to his name on hard courts (and 12 defeats).

Age 21, ranked no.99 and on the up, today’s opponent Davidovich Fokina is a much different prospect. Alejandro’s hard-court record is won 73 lost 37, for a very respectable 66% match win rate.

Norrie’s hard-court strike-rate is 70%. It’s understandable that the older and high-ranked player is the favourite here.

However, Davidovich Fokina has won two matches in a row priced as the underdog this week, and looks to be relishing the challenge. His body language and demeanour against Hubert Hurkacz in the last round was good. This guy wants to win.

In the Match Winner market, the Spanish player is 13/8 (2.63) and 6/4 (2.5) for the upset. I’m expecting a good battle in this match, and it could turn into a long one…

Five-set potential…

It's also worth noting that three of Norrie’s last four Grand Slam matches have gone the full distance to five sets, with Cam losing the first set on each occasion.

That includes a 3-2 defeat at the Australian Open on hard courts in January this year. And at the US Open last year, when Norrie started the match as a 3/10 (1.3) favourite to beat Gregoire Barrere, only to eventually lose 7-6, 6-4, 4-6, 6-7, 7-6.

My tactic here is to take the underdog Davidovich Fokina to make a good start and win the first set. And if this does turn into a five-set scrap, then the Total Sets market is the place to be…

Ones to Watch:

Cameron Norrie v Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

  • First Set Winner – Davidovich Fokina is 11/8 (2.38) with Bet365, 13/10 (2.3) William Hill, Ladbrokes, Coral, 5/4 (2.25) in general
  • Total Sets – 5 Sets is 11/4 (3.75) with Bet365, 13/5 (3.6) SpreadEx, 51/20 (3.55) Marathonbet (Over 4.5 Sets), 5/2 (3.5) with Skybet, 49/20 (3.45) 888 Sport, Unibet (Over 4.5 Sets), 12/5 (3.4) BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Coral, Betfred, Sportingbet, Bwin

Play starts at 4pm.

I’ll be back at 10am tomorrow with your day six email.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch