US Open Day 3 - ride the rollercoaster at 80/1...

Wednesday 1st September 2021

In Ones to Watch today:

• US Open – Day 3…
• Outright Winner book…
• Women’s 2nd Round – Set Betting picks… 

Some points are bigger than others…

A decent day’s work for us yesterday, with two out of three men’s 1st Set Tiebreaks coming in, at odds of around 2/1 and 3/1. Reilly Opelka won 7-6, 6-4, 6-4 v Kwon Soon-woo. And Matteo Berrettini beat Jeremy Chardy 7-6, 7-6, 6-3.

We also backed two massive, 100/1+ outsiders in the women’s event yesterday. Our 250/1 shot Sara Sorribes Tormo progressed to the 2nd round, beating Karolina Muchova 6-2, 7-6 to land Match Winner odds of 13/10.

Teenage pick Marta Kostyuk couldn’t overturn the odds against French Open semi-finalist Maria Sakkari, though. The 19-year-old was a little disappointing yesterday – not quite bringing her usual level of fire to the court.

Sakkari ran out a 6-4, 6-3 winner. It's worth noting that that scoreboard doesn’t quite tell the whole story. Some points are bigger than others, and Kostyuk failed to be a ruthless as her opponent when it come to break-point chances. Managing to convert just 2 of her 10 break points, compared to 5 out of 6 successful conversions for the Greek.

Here's another points-that-matter example:

• Tuesday’s men’s 1st round clash between Andreas Seppi and Marton Fucsovics lasted over four hours, and went the full distance to a Tiebreak in the 5th Set. The 4/1 underdog Seppi eventually got the win, taking it on his 6th match point – having saved 5 match points himself. Fucsovics won the most points overall in the match – but still ended up on the losing side of the net (Total Points = Seppi 152, Fucsovics 168)

Unbeaten in New York…

There have been injuries and a global pandemic in-between, but 2019 US Open champion Bianca Andreescu remains unbeaten in main-draw matches at Flushing Meadows.

The prodigious 21-year-old Canadian rarely wins smoothly – but she is a top-level competitor, and Bianca has proved time and time again that she can dig out a victory from a losing position…

Last night’s 1st round night match was the latest example. Andreescu fought back from a break of serve down in the final set against Viktorija Golubic, eventually prevailing 7-5, 4-6, 7-5 in two hours and 48 minutes.

As ever with Andreescu, the question is, with her injury record, will all these long matches take their toll and ultimately stop her defending her US Open crown? Betfred certainly think so – they make the Canadian 40/1 for the title, compared to 28/1 in general elsewhere.

Here’s Bianca’s 3-Set formbook stat for the year-to-date:

• 13 of Andreescu’s 21 completed matches in 2021 have gone the distance to 3 Sets

See below for some women’s 3-Set contenders for today.

Our Outright Winner book…

At the outsider prices we go for in the Outright Winner markets, the plan is to cover several contenders at attractive Each Way odds.

So far, we’ve got a handful of players in the book for the US Open at odds in the region of 25/1 & 28/1 and 33/1 & 40/1.

In terms of triple-figure prices, we have Hubert Hurkacz at 100/1 & 80/1, and Sara Sorribes Tormo at 300/1 & 250/1.

The full roster:

Women’s
Aryna Sabalenka – plays in 2nd round today
Danielle Collins – plays in 2nd round today
Elena Rybakina – plays in 2nd round today
Belinda Bencic – won 1st round match yesterday, 2-0
Sara Sorribes Tormo – won 1st round match yesterday, 2-0
(Marta Kostyuk – lost in 1st round yesterday, 2-0)

Men’s
Andrey Rublev – plays in 2nd round today
Hubert Hurkacz – won 1st round match, 3-0

Ride the rollercoaster at 80/1…

Yesterday we looked at three men’s matches with the potential for a serve-dominated 1st Set. Successfully identifying the Tiebreak (7-6 score) markets. In today’s opening batch of women’s 2nd round ties, I think we could see something very different…

We’ve targeted 3-Set angles in the women’s game several times over the past year or so. And one way to get a nice price from a match earmarked as a ‘go the distance’ contender is to pin our colours to the mast, and select a player to win via the 2-1 Set Betting score…

The three matches I have in mind for potential rollercoaster scoreboards are:

Kaia Kanepi v Leylah Fernandez (4pm start)

Marketa Vondrousova v Daria Kasatkina (5.30pm approx.)

Sloane Stephens v Coco Gauff (Midnight)

• Kanepi v Fernandez is experience v youth – the 36-year-old Estonian saves pretty much all of her energies for Grand Slam appearances these days. Three of Kanepi’s last 4 Grand Slam matches have gone to 3 Sets

• The most recent meeting between Vondrousova and Kasatkina went to 3 Sets, with Vondrousova coming through 2-1. Four of Kasatkina’s last 6 defeats this summer have been by a 2-1 score-line

• Stephens v Gauff is an all-American encounter and has been given a big billing, opening the Night Session on the main stadium court, Arthur Ashe. This is the first meeting between these two. When she won the US Open back in 2017, 4 of Stephens’ 7 matches that fortnight went to 3 Sets. Sloane has been involved in a stack of battles again recently – her last 5 matches this summer have all ended 2-1, one way or another 

In the Total Sets markets, 3 Sets (or Over 2.5 Sets) is around 7/5 (2.4) for each of those three matches today. With the best price on a treble coming out at 15/1 with Skybet, Ladbrokes & Coral.

I’m interested in the very biggest prices. And in this case, that means going after the 2-1 Set Betting scores. It’s speculative work, of course. But I can see a trio of match-ups like this ending up with the pre-match favourites (and younger women) coming through, via the long route…

That would be Fernandez, Vondrousova, and Gauff winning through by the 2-1 score. Each available at odds of 3/1+ (4.0+) in the Set Betting markets, as singles. With the jackpot treble paying in the region of 80/1 for the full house.

Ones to Watch – US Open 2021

Women’s matches – Set Betting:

• Leylah Fernandez to win 2-1 v Kaia Kanepi @ 10/3 (4.33) Bet365, William Hill, Ladbrokes, Coral, Boylesports 

• Marketa Vondrousova to win 2-1 v Daria Kasatkina @ 7/2 (4.5) Boylesports, Ladbrokes, Coral, Unibet

• Coco Gauff to win 2-1 v Sloane Stephens @ 16/5 (4.2) Boylesports, William Hill, 3/1 (4.0) general 

• TREBLE: Fernandez, Vondrousova & Gauff to all win 2-1 @ 80/1 Boylesports, Ladbrokes, Coral, Bet365 (inc. 10% Acca Bonus), 79/1 William Hill

Play starts from 4pm.

I’ll be back tomorrow by 12 noon with your Day 4 email.

P.S
You can contact me during the US Open at: tom.wilson@oxonpress.co.uk

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch