Tennis Betting Advice - September 2021

US Open Day 5 - playing the 40/1 bracket...

Friday 3rd September 2021

In Ones to Watch today:

  • US Open – Day 5…
  • Our Outright Winner book…
  • Victoria looks value…

Yesterday I said that my gut was telling me to back Maria Sakkari. The feeling was right on the day, with the Greek overcoming a big-odds regular of ours, Katerina Siniakova, in straight sets.

This is not to be confused with random hunches or guesswork. Without getting too deep, especially when up against the clock this Friday morning – a gut feeling usually means there is something, almost subconscious, pushing an idea or thought to the forefront…

When it comes to betting on a sport like tennis, such notions come from years spent studying and working on this stuff. Ever since I first pored over the women’s US Open drawsheet last weekend, I’ve had a sense that the mid-range collection of prices may be the way to go in search of an Each Way finalist…

That has filtered through into my selections, where we have four women in the Outright Winner book that fit into that odds category, at around 33/1 – 50/1: Danielle Collins, Belinda Bencic, Elena Rybakina, and Maria Sakkari.

Prompting further investigation into the starting prices of recent women’s Grand Slam winners & runners-up. The averages that I’ve unearthed today make very interesting reading to me…

Here are the Outright Winner starting prices for the finalists from the last 20 women’s Grand Slams:

W = won
RU = runner-up

7/1 W, 50/1 RU
18/1 W, 8/1 RU
12/1 W, 6/1 RU
10/1 W, 16/1 RU
13/8 W, 25/1 RU

French Open
175/1 W, 150/1 RU
100/1 W, 50/1 RU
22/1 W, 40/1 RU
6/1 W, 50/1 RU
100/1 W, 4/1 RU

Australian Open
11/2 W, 33/1 RU
50/1 W, 40/1 RU
14/1 W, 18/1 W
10/1 W, 8/1 RU
3/1 W, 100/1 RU

US Open
11/2 W, 22/1 RU
14/1 W, 5/1 RU
50/1 W, 6/1 RU
40/1 W, 16/1 RU
10/1 W, 33/1 RU

The conclusions being:

  • Average odds of a finalist in last 20 women’s Grand Slams = 33/1
  • Average odds of a finalist in last 10 women’s Grand Slams = 41/1

During that time, we’ve landed Ones to Watch picks in women’s Grand Slam finals for either the full win or a 1/2 odds Each Way payout, at odds of: 33/1, 40/1, 16/1, 25/1, 40/1, 100/1, 40/1, 50/1.

Victoria looks value…

At the start of this year’s US Open, there were 16 women contained within that 33/1 – 501/ price bracket, across the board in general in the day-one Outright Winner market. As discussed, we’re on four of those in that price category: Collins, Bencic, Rybakina, and Sakkari.

Those 33/1 and 41/1 averages don’t make it an exact science, of course. But the name I’m adding to the book today fits in with those guideline odds, as well as having excellent top-level playing credentials…

And while the other names we have in the book are all looking to reach a first Grand Slam final, Victoria Azarenka has been there and done it before…

The 32-year-old, former world no.1 has won two Grand Slam titles, both coming at the Australian Open (2012 & 2013). The Belarusian has also reached the final at three occasions here at the US Open – making the two hard-court Majors her most successful venues.

The most recent of those New York finals was just last year (runner-up). A significant result, marking a high-point in Azarenka’s pro career since becoming a mother.

In last season’s US Open betting, Azarenka went off at 22/1.

The current world no.19 was 40/1 in general at the start of this week, with 50/1 at a couple of places if you shopped around. That’s still the case going into the 3rd round today, despite Victoria posting two good 2-0 wins in the opening rounds.

Today’s opponent is a fellow two-time Major winner and former no.1, Garbine Muguruza. Unlike Azarenka, the 27-year-old Spaniard has never got past the 4th round, Last 16 stage here at Flushing Meadows. Muguruza started the tournament at 22/1 – 33/1, and is now 25/1 & 28/1 in general, although Betfred are as short as 14/1.

The head-to-head between these two is locked level at 2-2, and 1-1 if you take out retirements & uncompleted matches.

The bookmakers have Azarenka as the slight favourite in this clash, at 4/5 (1.8), compared to Evens (2.0) for Muguruza. There’s not much in it, then. But for me, in this circumstance, the older player’s experience and big-point toughness gives the slight edge to Vika. Muguruza tends to play with less margin for error, and that can lead to spells of inconsistency, along with lulls in confidence.

The general feeling is that, after winning the French Open in 2016 and then Wimbledon in 2017, Garbine should’ve gone on to do more, and really set up camp at the top of the rankings. Things haven’t quite gone that way, although there is no shame in a current Top 10 ranking, and an Australian Open runner-up trophy last season.

I just feel that Azarenka has the ability to play the right shot at the right time and hold it together that bit more, when it really, really matters. And at bigger Outright odds than today’s opponent, and indeed the day-one top prices still available, Azarenka at 50/1 and 40/1 looks value to me. If she wins today, those odds will certainly disappear.

Our Outright Winner book…

Here’s how the rest of our book is shaping up – with a big couple of days about to get underway…

We’ve got seven out of nine Outright Winner picks through to the 3rd round, one win away from a place in the Last 16 and week two:

(Top price in brackets)

Aryna Sabalenka (28/1), Danielle Collins (50/1) – play each other in 3rd round

Elena Rybakina (40/1) – plays Simona Halep in the 3rd round

Belinda Bencic (33/1) – plays Jessica Pegula in 3rd round

Sara Sorribes Tormo (300/1) – plays Emma Raducanu in 3rd round

Maria Sakkari (50/1) – plays Petra Kvitova in 3rd round

Andrey Rublev (40/1) – plays Frances Tiafoe in 3rd round

As you can see from those match-ups, things get tougher from now on, with several potentially very close encounters on that 3rd-round list. But the key is price, and we’ve got plenty of eye-catching odds on our side…

Ones to Watch – US Open 2021

Women’s Outright Winner – Each Way:

  • Victoria Azarenka @ 50/1 Boylesports, Skybet, 40/1 Bet365, William Hill, 888 Sport, Unibet, BetVictor, Marathonbet 

Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places.

I’ll be back tomorrow with your Day 6 email.

You can contact me during the US Open at:

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch